TCU vs Georgia National Championship Preview

I’m still not entirely sure what to make of this game. I’ve spent some time in thought about it, but had primed myself for months to think about the Michigan-Georgia rematch and only thought through the real possibility of an Ohio State-Michigan rematch very late in the prelude to the semifinals.

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My time spent thinking through TCU’s matchup with Georgia? Very little and very recent. Hopefully in writing this I’ll arrive at a little more clarity and I’m curious what you, the readers, think about this contest.

The line opened Georgia -13.5 and has moved to -12.5 (still Georgia), which is pretty inconspicuous movement. The best you can figure is the public likes the underdog a little bit with their plucky ways, or maybe there’s some indication the injury which removed running back Kendre Miller from the Michigan game isn’t looking as bad. At any rate, Georgia opened as the heavy favorite and have remained so.

The overarching assumption is Georgia’s overwhelming talent will make the difference in this game. It makes a fair bit of sense.

Traditional triumvirates clash

Both Georgia and TCU are build around the following formula, which is the traditional path to winning in college football.

• Run the ball inside with a physical front.
• Play great defense.
• Throw the ball primarily off play-action or RPOs.

I’ve been calling this the traditional triumvirate of college football dynamics, generally with a deep threat dimension in the play-action game which can clear space in the box for the run game.

Georgia has been unique this season in having an effective play-action passing game without really utilizing a deep-threat. They do have a knack for misdirection and some talented tight ends and running backs to throw the ball to, but no singular dominant receiver. Even when they’ve had them in the past, such as current Steeler standout George Pickens, they didn’t really show him off much.

Quarterback Stetson Bennett is good at reading the plays they set up for him and hitting the throws, but when his initial is covered things get dicey. I do think he could make good use of a dominant deep threat if they had one.

TCU follows newer styles of strategy to arrive at what Georgia gets done with more traditional, under center formations. Where the Bulldogs start by running downhill with inside zone behind good combo blocks from a richly talented and powerful offensive line, TCU has a similar starting point but from the shotgun spread.

The Horned Frogs made a statement by running over Michigan in the last round and may have another gear still in this game. Against the Wolverines, TCU was able to run inside zone at times with their tight end Jared Wiley picking up an Edge 1-on-1, freeing up the guard and tackle inside of him to double team the defensive tackle which caused second order issues for Michigan.

TCU gets double teams on both defensive tackles because the tight end takes an End 1-on-1 and then good things happen.

Can they do likewise against Georgia? Maybe not, but they have another card to play. Run the ball with Max Duggan early and often. He had 15 carries against Michigan and there’s nothing to save him for after this one, so he could see another 15-25 carries on designed plays or frequent scrambles.

It’s not hard to imagine Georgia stopping up TCU’s run game more effectively than other teams have done, so I woiuld’t be shocked to see Duggan get a lot more pass attempts and carries which result from “checking down” to a scramble on a passing play.

Conversely, the big question is whether Georgia can just run the ball on TCU’s Flyover defense or whether the Frogs cause them issues as they did against most everyone else. One obvious approach by Georgia would be to spread out TCU in order to run the ball. Get wide enough and you can start to get defenders out of the box, like so…

Texas tried stuff like this a lot. It doesn’t tend to work out so great for a number of reasons. One problem is TCU can still pack in the inside gaps and dare you to involve the quarterback with defenders coming at him from outside angles. Bennett ain’t up for that. It also invites you to work the ball down the field with high volume perimeter screens and dropback passing. Georgia could do that, but surely they’d prefer to just get big with their tight ends and hope misdirection and play-action can be enough to allow their O-line to blow open holes.

They beat Ohio State while putting a lot on Bennett’s shoulders but that was largely by necessity because they couldn’t stop Ohio State and got behind.

Georgia is fairly unique and not simply a “pound you in the trenches on either side” because of their tight ends. Brock Bowers is a uniquely gifted and skilled athlete as a receiver, on the top shelf of collegiate flex tight ends, while Darnell Washington is an absolutely massive traditional tight end. They’ve been better at maximizing the latter and he could be a factor in this game. Just keep in mind Texas threw jumbo sets at TCU with a third tackle at tight end and still couldn’t find advantages to run the ball.

If Georgia can stop the TCU run game AND run the ball on TCU, like many assume based on their superior recruiting rankings, then this will be a very boring game. I have a lot of doubts though and even if I thought it was likely it wouldn’t make for fun or interesting analysis.

I see two big areas where this game could be determined if we assume that the battle to run the ball for either team isn’t a lopsided exchange.

Stetson vs Flyover coverage and TCU’s O-line against Georgia’s blitz package.

Signal callers in the big game

The biggest fear TCU should have in this game is blocking Georgia’s blitzes.

Georgia is an effective blitzing team, they kind of have to be from their 3-down system which doesn’t currently put a premier pass-rusher on the edge very often. They are kinda notorious for not necessarily having a dominant Edge. Their 2021 Championship squad put no. 1 overall pick Travon Walker at strongside end leading to this big debate over whether a guy who only had six sacks should be a no. 1 pick defensive end. Their 2017 runner-up squad was similar and played a decent amount of 3-2-6 dime with inside linebacker Roquan Smith as their main pressure guy.

TCU doesn’t have the tackles to handle a great Edge, but Georgia doesn’t have one. However, they can blitze the edge with their backers or defensive backs OR they can attack the interior with linebacker blitzes. This defense is built to mix in pressures against HUNH spread offenses, they know how to maintain sound coverage and communicate the blitzes while facing tempo.

Can TCU block them or does Duggan have to scramble? Can he handle the pressure or is he buried for sacks or throw the ball up for grabs? 

The Frogs have some man-beaters and screens like the drag screen they torched Michigan with which could help…

It looks like mesh except all the receivers end up blocking except the one running the shallow/drag route. The trick is that he has to stay really shallow and when he clears the box, get back behind the line of scrimmage to catch the ball so his fellow receivers throwing blocks aren’t penalized for offensive pass interference.

This one has been popular in the Big 12 for a while, apparently Michigan didn’t get the memo.

It’s possible Max Duggan and TCU’s speed at receiver solves for the issue of Georgia’s blitz package with some screens and big plays, but it’s a definite concern and where Georgia’s superior athleticism on defense is most likely to show in this game. In particular, can TCU hit a few deep shots to Quentin Johnston against a cornerback? That could be the game. Georgia will be happy to notice TCU’s receivers are more dangerous after the catch than at beating good man coverage to get the ball, as opposed to the Ohio State boys. Sonny Dykes has lots of tricks for helping them get open though.

Georgia’s fear is similar, sort of the flip side. How well will Bennett navigate TCU’s layered, drop eight coverages? Hitting 1-on-1 predetermined shots on Ohio State’s man coverage when the pass-rush can’t get home ain’t the same as trying to find a 1-on-1 against drop eight, even when you have time. The 1-on-1 doesn’t necessarily exist.

This is sort of the advantage for TCU overall in this game. The play calls and throws you want to use in beating the Frogs’ Flyover aren’t necessarily something Georgia has much work in and you question the extent to which they threw in TCU prep in the lead-up to these games.

Here’s an illustration of what I’m talking about, they ran this 4-verticals style concept to get Brock Bowers open late against Ohio State.

Tight window on this one to Brock Bowers. pic.twitter.com/HnhroVgxrJ

— Special asst to the special asst to the HC (@Ian_A_Boyd) January 7, 2023

Pretty close call. The Mike linebacker Tommy Eichenberg tried to get into the window and the boundary safety was robbing a crosser, but Bowers sits in the seam.

Here’s how that looks against a Flyover coverage:

There’s just a lot going on underneath and over the top on everything, no open lane across the middle. The defense doesn’t have to make big trade-off choices in coverage because they drop eight so often.

Obviously J.J. McCarthy had some issues seeing defenders and anticipating the actual closing speed and skill of some of the back-end defenders for TCU. I’d say the odds of TCU being able to score enough to really make a go at this aren’t great unless they can also turn over Bennett. However, the odds of turning over Bennett aren’t terrible. He had two picks against Florida, two picks against Mississippi State, and a pick against Ohio State.

He threw 30+ passes in eight games this season, one was against Samford, and in the other seven games he threw picks in four of those games. I’m not saying he’s awful but he’s not a guy they like to put a heavy burden on to win games. If Georgia can’t just run them over, he may have to carry that burden.

You can beat drop eight coverage if the quarterback is good at running around and finding guys breaking open or scrambling for steady gains, but again that’s way outside Bennett’s comfort zone and opens up Georgia to major liabilities. TCU is happy for this game to be about which of Bennett or Duggan can play hero-ball and make points happen.

So what’s going to happen?

If TCU can drag Georgia into a tight game where they have to ask Bennett to out-duel Duggan and the Frogs have a chance to wear out the Georgia defensive fronts late in the game with tempo, high snap counts, and Duggan running around then they can absolutely pull off this upset.

Georgia wins this game if it’s about simple talent and execution in the box.

I find this one very difficult. TCU’s schemes are designed to allow them to compete in the box against other teams and set traps for a big, talented squad like Georgia. 

That makes me hesitant about Georgia’s chances, as does the fact Georgia doesn’t have the overpowering pro-style passing game and perimeter weapons to easily make the Frogs pay.

But Georgia is more or less the pinnacle of big baddies in the trenches. Can TCU’s many workarounds suffice to allow them to hold up in a Championship bout with a true heavyweight? Particularly given Georgia’s proven coaching staff and the fact they just watched TCU pull this off against Michigan the week prior and will be that much wiser to the challenge?

So I tend to lean toward the Bulldogs but I’m not excited about their potential approach in this game. I fear they’ll allow themselves to be caught in the spider’s web and then try to overcome the spider.

This article was originally published at America’s War Game, a newsletter about football’s strategies and role in American culture.