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Texas checks in at No. 5 in ESPN's SP+, bolstered by the rating's top defense

Joe Cookby:Joe Cook•05/22/25•

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Malik Muhammad
Malik Muhammad (Will Gallagher/Inside Texas)

With rosters mostly settled, analytical rankings like Bill Connelly’s SP+ have as much reliable data to use as possible in order to project aspects of the 2025 season. Connelly posted his most recent update to SP+ on ESPN on Thursday, and the Longhorns checked in at No. 5.

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Back in February, Texas was No. 7 in SP+. Steve Sarkisian‘s program finished the 2024 season ranked No. 7 in SP+.

Texas is behind No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Penn State, and No. 4 Georgia in the most recent rankings.

The Longhorns rank highly in offensive and defensive SP+. Texas’ offense ranks as the No. 17 team in offensive SP+, while Pete Kwiatkowski‘s defense is the No. 1 unit in defensive SP+.

Unfortunately, Texas’ special teams SP+ ranks No. 135 out of 136 FBS teams. Only Arizona State has a worse SP+ special teams rating.

SP+ uses returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history over the past four seasons to make preseason rankings. It also features this caveat from Connelly.

SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and along those lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather.

SP+ is used to run simulations that project the average number of wins in a regular season for a given team. The Longhorns average win total in these projections was 9.6. Texas had a 61% chance, however, of going 10-2 or better according to Connelly’s projections.

The Longhorns were listed as No. 82 in returning production. Texas is No. 109 in returning offensive production and No. 31 in returning defensive production. On offense, O-line starts and receiving yards factor heavily into the equation, followed by passing yards and rushing yards. Defensive returning production factors in returning snaps as two-thirds of the equation.

SP+ produces strength of schedule rankings as well. At the current moment, the Longhorns are slated to face the No. 12 toughest schedule in 2025. Part of that has to do with a difficult SEC slate plus the presence of No. 1 Ohio State on the schedule. Part of that also has to do with the fact that the Longhorns can’t face themselves.

The SEC was the top SP+ conference, followed by the Big 10, the Big 12, the ACC, and the ACC. The American Athletic Conference was the top Group of Five conference.

SP+ Top 25

  1. Ohio State
  2. Alabama
  3. Penn State
  4. Georgia
  5. Texas
  6. Notre Dame
  7. Oregon
  8. Clemson
  9. LSU
  10. Michigan
  11. Ole Miss
  12. Miami
  13. Tennessee
  14. Florida
  15. Texas A&M
  16. Oklahoma
  17. South Carolina
  18. Kansas State
  19. Illinois
  20. SMU
  21. Missouri
  22. Arizona State
  23. Indiana
  24. Louisville
  25. Auburn

Texas’ 2025 Schedule in SP+

  • 1. Ohio State
  • 83. San Jose State
  • 123. UTEP
  • 107. Sam Houston
  • 14. Florida
  • 16. Oklahoma
  • 43. Kentucky
  • 71. Mississippi State
  • 55. Vanderbilt
  • 4. Georgia
  • 38. Arkansas
  • 15. Texas A&M

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Strength of schedule top 15

  1. Oklahoma
  2. Florida
  3. Arkansas
  4. Wisconsin
  5. Vanderbilt
  6. Mississippi State
  7. South Carolina
  8. Kentucky
  9. LSU
  10. Texas A&M
  11. Alabama
  12. Texas
  13. Georgia
  14. Syracuse
  15. Auburn

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