Texas drops in ESPN's SP+ update ahead of the 2024 season
After entering the summer ranked No. 4 in ESPN’s SP+, the Texas Longhorns dropped in Bill Connelly’s final preseason update to his tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.
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The Longhorns were No. 5, one spot back of where they were ranked in May. They trailed Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, and Alabama in that order.
The Longhorn offense remained No. 4 in SP+ while Pete Kwiatkowski‘s defense stuck at No. 12 and Jeff Banks‘ special teams were once again No. 17.
So where did Texas fall to allow the Crimson Tide to take the No. 4 spot?
A reminder: SP+ uses returning production, recent recruiting, and information from the past four seasons as part of its formula. What cost the Longhorns between May and August 13?
The Longhorns’ individual rankings in offensive SP+ (No. 4), defensive SP+ (No. 12), and special teams SP+ (No. 17) didn’t change. Nor did Alabama’s in offensive SP+ (No. 7), defensive SP+ (No. 8), and special teams SP+ (No. 2)
However, there were enough minute changes into the ratings that create those rankings that it caused Texas’ overall SP+ rating to fall from 29.5 to 27.7. Alabama’s also fell from 29.1 but landed just above Texas at 27.7. The individual changes between now and May that caused the one spot drop in the rankings for the Longhorns aren’t entirely clear since SP+’s formula is proprietary.
Here’s how the Longhorns’ schedule looks when associating it with SP+
- No. 100 – Colorado State
- No. 7 – at Michigan
- No. 54 – UTSA
- No. 134 – UL-Monroe
- No. 55 – Mississippi State
- No. 13 – vs. Oklahoma
- No. 1 – Georgia
- No. 89 – at Vanderbilt
- No. 23 – Florida
- No. 44 – at Arkansas
- No. 22 – Kentucky
- No. 14 – at Texas A&M
Despite trailing the Crimson Tide in the rankings, the Longhorns were ahead of Alabama in SP+’s conference title odds. The SEC was SP+’s strongest conference and Texas was ascribed a 15.2% chance of winning it in 2024. That trailed Georgia’s 29.7% but was ahead of Alabama’s 14.3%.
UGA, UT, and UA were the only teams with above a 10% chance of winning the SEC, with Ole Miss’s 9.6% just missing the cut.
That SEC strength is reflected in the sheer number of top-25 teams from the league
- 1 Georgia
- 4 Alabama
- 5 Texas
- 8 Ole Miss
- 10 LSU
- 11 Missouri
- 13 Oklahoma
- 14 Texas A&M
- 15 Tennessee
- 22 Kentucky
- 23 Florida
- 25 Auburn
- 35 South Carolina
- 44 Arkansas
- 55 Mississippi State
- 89 Vanderbilt
SP+ is updated weekly so a lobsided victory over Colorado State might make an impact on Texas’ ranking as preseason projections are phased out in time for conference play. So too would a win at Michigan on September 7.
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Texas may have dropped one place in SP+ since May, but the Longhorns have plenty of opportunity to move up in the rankings as they progress through September and early October.
