Texas is justifiably the underdog versus Ohio State, still controls its own destiny

Texas and Ohio State have already played a couple classic games this century and we should be headed for another one despite public sentiment largely favoring the Buckeyes. Texas (13-2) is currently a 5.5 point underdog to Ohio State (12-2), despite playing in the friendly environs of AT&T Field in Arlington, Texas this Friday.

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Both teams have fairly recent losses. Texas lost a very close game in overtime to Georgia in the SEC Championship while Ohio State lost to Michigan, once again, in the regular season finale. Much of the confidence in favor of Ohio State stems from its blowout wins over Tennessee and previously undefeated Oregon by a combined 45 points. Meanwhile, Texas played decently well against a Clemson team that barely clawed its way into the playoffs before narrowly escaping defeat against Arizona State. 

Though recency bias is largely driving conventional wisdom of Ohio State as the clear favorite, I get to the same conclusion after watching Texas all season long. Outside of the stellar, but perhaps tiring defense, the Horns have simply not played consistently well enough for me to come to any other conclusion than Ohio State is the more likely team to win. Yes, that did hurt to write.

On Sunday, IT wrote about Texas’ inconsistent play from the first half to the second half. That’s a concern entering the semifinal. Texas will need to play a clean game on Friday.

Measures of clean play can be found in turnovers, penalties, and special teams. The opposite can be found as well. 

Turnovers 

Good news: The Texas defense leads the country with 30 takeaways. 

Bad news: The Texas offense has been very careless with the ball to the tune of 24 turnovers; 11 by fumble, 13 by interception. 

A great encapsulation of the Texas turnover paradox is the first game against Georgia where Texas forced three turnovers but gave the ball away three times as well. The Texas offense has often had trouble capitalizing on turnovers, meanwhile Texas turnovers have often put the defense in a difficult position. Again, see: The first game against Georgia where the bulldogs amassed 30 points with only one “real” touchdown drive thanks to turnovers.

By comparison: Ohio State only has 17 takeaways but also only 13 giveaways. 

Penalties

Ohio State is No. 4 in the country with 4.1 penalties a game. OSU is averaging 2.3 in its last three games. 

Texas is No. 97 in the country with 6.5 but are averaging 7.7 in its last three games. Keep in mind Texas only had two penalties against Clemson. Texas had 11 against Georgia and 10 against Arizona State. 

If you watch a lot of Texas football you’ll notice many times the penalties come at the most inopportune time and all too often are pre-snap. We certainly saw this against Arizona State in the second half but we saw many other times this season.

Special Teams 

I don’t care about the penalty on the missed punt block against Arizona State. It was a good call that was poorly executed. I do care that players have made mistakes on fake punts in two of Texas’ last three games. The Georgia fake punt should have been anticipated due to the situation. The Arizona State fake punt should have been expected entering the game. Watch the ball leave the foot.

That’s not even close to the worst aspect of special teams. Texas’ punting and field goals have been woeful for much of the season. They are bad in key situations, they are bad in “normal” situations. Bert Auburn can’t be trusted to hit anything over 35 yards at this point and even then there are no gimmes when it comes to kickers lacking recent success. 

Ohio State’s kicker, Jayden Fielding, struggled mightily in the high pressure situation of playing Michigan. In that three-point loss, Fielding missed from 38 and 34-yards.

As Inside Texas’ Paul Wadlington writes, perhaps Texas can turn a negative into a positive.

Closing

Given talent is pretty similar between these two teams, the result will come down to the best game plan, execution, and clean play. I feel good about Texas’ game plans but it’s hard to have confidence in execution and clean-play based on this season and the upcoming opponent.

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That obviously doesn’t mean Texas can’t win. The Horns have a better chance of winning entering the game than Arizona State, and State was only one play and enough tears to fill up Lake Powell away from pulling off the upset.

It does mean Texas will likely have to overcome itself at times in addition to overcoming the Buckeyes if it wants to advance.