Texas is still on the right side of the bubble, but will it stay there?

The Texas Longhorns’ 84-69 loss at South Carolina on Saturday night was an incredibly disappointing day for Rodney Terry‘s program. Not only did Texas supply the Gamecocks with their first Southeastern Conference win of the 2024-25 season, they looked totally uninspired doing so save for a 29-point effort from Tre Johnson that’s almost to be expected at this point.

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There are no good losses, but there are bad losses and worse losses. The result Saturday falls into the latter category, as it puts Texas in a position to where it likely needs to win three of its final four games to feel safe about its chances of securing an at-large bid to the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

While the result Saturday does little to inspire confidence (it does the opposite actually), it does not take Texas out of contention for a spot in the field of 68 as it stands today. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi bumped Texas down two spots on Sunday morning in his latest bracketology, but still kept the Longhorns in the “last four byes” category. They were joined by fellow SEC team Vanderbilt, with conference mates Oklahoma and Arkansas in the “last four in” group.

pic.twitter.com/zsq1arIhEf

— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) February 23, 2025

Because of the strength of the SEC, with every team within the top 90 of the all-important NET rankings, every conference game is a chance to bolster a resume. Texas has four opportunities left with two of them Quadrant 1 games.

It just so happens the Quadrant 1 games are on the road, starting Wednesday at Arkansas. The Razorbacks pummeled Texas 78-70 earlier in the year in a game not as close as the final score would seem to indicate.

Remaining on the bubble, and on the right side, won’t be an easy task. However, the quality of the bubble is not particularly strong this year. Here’s info on every team on Lunardi’s bubble.

TEAM	RECORD	CONF. RECORD	CATEGORY	NET RANKING	KENPOM RANKING
West Virginia	16-11	7-9 Big 12	Last four byes	47	50
Vanderbilt	18-9	6-8 SEC	Last four byes	43	43
Texas	16-11	5-9 SEC	Last four byes	38	39
Nebraska	17-10	7-9 Big 10	Last four byes	54	46
San Diego St.	18-7	11-5 MWC	Last four in	49	42
Oklahoma	17-10	4-10 SEC	Last four in	51	49
Arkansas	16-11	5-9 SEC	Last four in	40	36
Wake Forest	19-8	11-5 ACC	Last four in	62	69
North Carolina	17-11	10-6 ACC	First four out	45	44
SMU	20-7	11-5 ACC	First four out	39	40
Georgia	16-11	4-10 SEC	First four out	41	45
TEAM	RECORD	CONF. RECORD	CATEGORY	NET RANKING	KENPOM RANKING
Boise State	19-8	11-5 MWC	First four out	46	48
George Mason	21-6	12-2 A10	Nextfour out	64	72
Xavier	17-10	9-7 Big East	Next four out	52	51
Indiana	15-11	6-9 Big 10	Next four out	59	57
Villanova	16-12	9-8 Big East	Next four out	50	56
Pittsburgh	16-11	7-9 ACC	Next	55	54
Santa Clara	19-10	11-5 WCC	Next	53	55
Kansas State	13-13	7-8 Big 12	Next	75	59
San Francisco	22-7	12-4 WCC	Next	60	63

These rankings show that as the bubble stands today, the Longhorns have a good resume compared to other teams sweating Selection Sunday here in late February.

Whether they can keep or improve that resume is a question that appears increasingly difficult to answer after Saturday’s game. Plus, the Longhorns need every single conference tournament to be as chalky as possible, and one-bid leagues to remain one-bid leagues. That applies to the Mountain West, the West Coast Conference, and even the Atlantic Coast Conference.

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The path is there, but it’s not an easy one thanks to Texas’ created difficulties from Saturday night

Quadrant 1 games

Quadrant 1 games are home contests against teams ranked 1-30, neutral site games against teams ranked 1-50, and road games against teams ranked 1-75

Record: 4-8

Wins

• 1/15 – at No. 51 Oklahoma – 77-73
• 1/21 – No. 16 Missouri – 61-53
• 1/25 – No. 18 Texas A&M – 70-69
• 2/14 – No. 12 Kentucky – 82-78

Losses

• 11/4 – vs. No. 34 Ohio State – 80-72
• 1/4 – at No. 18 Texas A&M – 80-60
• 1/7 – No. 1 Auburn – 87-82
• 1/11 – No. 5 Tennessee – 74-70
• 1/18 – at No. 4 Florida – 84-60
• 1/29 – at No. 24 Ole Miss – 72-69
• 2/8 – at No. 43 Vanderbilt – 78-86
• 2/11 – No. 6 Alabama 103-80

Quadrant 2 games

Quadrant 2 games are home contests versus teams ranked 31-75, neutral site contests against teams ranked 51-100, and away games against teams ranked 76-135

Record: 3-3

Wins

• 11/22 – vs. No. 82 St. Joseph’s – 67-58
• 12/4 – at No. 118 NC State – 63-59
• 2/1 – at No. 81 LSU – 89-58

Losses

• 12/8 – No. 35 UConn – 76-65
• 2/5 – No. 40 Arkansas – 78-70
• 2/22 – at No. 89 South Carolina – 84-69

Quadrant 3 games

Quadrant 3 games are home contests against teams ranked 76-160, neutral site games against teams ranked 101-200, and away games against teams ranked 136-240

Record: 2-0

Wins

• 11/21 – vs. No. 145 Syracuse – 70-66
• 12/12 – No. 143 New Mexico State – 91-67

Quadrant 4 games

Quadrant 4 games are home games against teams ranked 161 or higher, neutral site games against teams ranked 201 or higher, and away contests against teams ranked 241 or higher

Record: 7-0

Wins

• 11/8 – No. 281 Houston Christian – 90-59
• 11/12 – No. 358 Chicago State – 105-58
• 11/16 – No. 364 Mississippi Valley State – 89-43
• 11/29 – No. 294 Delaware State – 90-68
• 12/15 – No. 362 Arkansas-Pine Bluff – 121-57
• 12/19 – No. 343 New Orleans – 98-62
• 12/29 – No. 244 Northwestern State – 77-53

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Upcoming games

• 2/26 – at No. 40 Arkansas – Quadrant 1
• 3/1 – No. 41 Georgia – Quadrant 2
• 3/4 – at No. 28 Mississippi State – Quadrant 1
• 3/8 – No. 51 Oklahoma – Quadrant 2