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Texas once again ranks near the top in ESPN's Football Power Index

Joe Cookby:Joe Cook•04/18/23•

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Steve Sarkisian (Tim Warner/Getty Images)

The Texas Longhorns plodded through a 12-game regular season in 2022 with an 8-4 record before succumbing to the Washington Huskies in the Valero Alamo Bowl. The entire way, they were the darlings of various advanced analytical metrics that placed them in the company of teams with double-digit wins.

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Ahead of the 2023 season, the same once again holds true in one of the leading metrics. ESPN released its 2023 Football Power Index on Tuesday, and the Longhorns rank No. 5 behind No. 4 LSU, No. 3 Georgia, No. 2 Alabama, and No. 1 Ohio State.

ESPN uses FPI as its “season-long ratings and projections system. In the preseason it relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.”

Texas is in select company with its rating of 21.9, in the neighborhood of teams like LSU, Michigan, USC, and Clemson. They are a step down from the upper echelon of the sport according to FPI, as Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State all have ratings above 27.0.

ESPN also released predictive numbers revealing which teams have the best chance to win the national championship. Behind the three team upper tier of Ohio State (37%), Alabama (20%), and Georgia (19%) were the Longhorns with their 6% chance.

The Longhorns had a projected win-loss of 10.1-2.6, and a 54.4% chance to win the Big 12. They had a 34.2% chance of making the playoff, a 14.5% chance of making the national championship game, and a 5.7% chance of winning the program’s first national title since 2005.

Texas ranked No. 12 in strength of schedule, the best in the conference.

The Big 12 fared well in FPI with seven top-30 teams. Oklahoma had the second best percentage to win the league with a 24.5% chance. Only TCU was above 5% out of the rest of the Big 12 with its 5.7%.

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Big 12 FPI Rankings

5. Texas
11. Oklahoma
17. TCU
22. Texas Tech
23. Baylor
26. UCF
27. Kansas State
38. Oklahoma State
43. Iowa State
48. Cincinnati
54. Houston
57. West Virginia
60. BYU
68. Kansas

In addition to No. 2 Alabama, 2023 non-conference opponents Rice and Wyoming ranked No. 107 and No. 90, respectively.

In an accompanying article, ESPN explained why Texas ranked so highly yet again after finishing No. 7 last year.

They’ve got strong talent, based on recruiting grades, on both sides of the ball (fourth on offense, sixth on defense). And, despite losing running back Bijan Robinson to the NFL, the Longhorns return quite a bit of production on offense, led by wide receiver Xavier Worthy.

Quinn Ewers, the incumbent at quarterback facing competition from Arch Manning and Maalik Murphy, didn’t have a great season last year (65.6 QBR, which ranked 50th) but does have a year of experience. And, as we saw with the teams at the top, a good situation around a quarterback can yield a high FPI rating.

The Longhorns also benefit from their conference: There are fewer tough foes and no divisions in the Big 12, and that leads to a more straightforward path to a conference title than they will have in the SEC next season (Texas’ 54% chance to win the Big 12 is higher than Georgia’s 49% or Alabama’s 41% chance to win the SEC). That doesn’t mean Texas has an easy schedule, though. With a road game at Alabama on Texas’ slate, the Longhorns have the toughest schedule of any of the FPI’s top 10 teams.

ESPN FPI Top 25

  1. Ohio State
  2. Alabama
  3. Georgia
  4. LSU
  5. Texas
  6. Michigan
  7. USC
  8. Clemson
  9. Notre Dame
  10. Penn State
  11. Oklahoma
  12. Tennessee
  13. Oregon
  14. Florida State
  15. Utah
  16. Ole Miss
  17. TCU
  18. Florida
  19. Texas A&M
  20. Wisconsin
  21. Washington
  22. Texas Tech
  23. Baylor
  24. Oregon State
  25. North Carolina

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