Texas putting its hopes into a 7-11 SEC record, some conference tournament success being enough

Texas is currently 6-11 in Southeastern Conference play. Prevailing wisdom suggested that an 8-10 record in league play would be enough to earn an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament, but the possibility for Rodney Terry‘s team to reach that mark evaporated with losses to South Carolina and Georgia for conference defeats Nos. 10 and 11. But could 7-11 get it done?

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The only way to go 7-11 for Texas was to get to 6-11, something the Horns did on Tuesday night with an overtime win at No. 25 Mississippi State. Thanks to Tramon Mark and Tre Johnson, Texas overcame numerous late-game mistakes to leave Starkville with a win.

It’s a win of the Quadrant 1 variety.

As of March 5, there are seven teams in the top 15 of the NET rankings that have just six Quadrant 1 wins, including No. 1 Duke. The Longhorns, even with all their struggles, have five Quadrant 1 wins.

Though their final regular season opportunity on Saturday versus Oklahoma is likely to be a Quadrant 2 contest, any game in the SEC Tournament should end up being a Quadrant 1 game.

Texas has a 7-13 record in Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2 games. The other SEC teams seemingly on the bubble have similar records in those games against quality teams. Georgia is 5-11, Arkansas is 7-10, and Oklahoma is 8-11.

Overall record can’t be ignored. But the committee will look at the resume of each team to figure out which portions of those records are the strongest.

And if Texas can win a couple additional games in the next few weeks, there’s a chance the Longhorns will somehow sneak into the NCAA Tournament.

NET ranking

Texas is currently the No. 41 team in the NCAA’s all-important NET Ranking.

Here’s what the NET Ranking, or NCAA Evaluation Tool, is in the NCAA’s own words.

The 2024-25 men’s basketball season marks the seventh season of the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, which replaced the RPI prior to the 2018-19 season as the primary sorting tool for evaluating teams. In May 2020, the NCAA announced there will be changes made to the NCAA Evaluation Tool to increase accuracy and simplify it by reducing a five-component metric to just two.

The remaining factors include the Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home, as well as an adjusted net efficiency rating. The adjusted efficiency is a team’s net efficiency, adjusted for strength of opponent and location (home/away/neutral) across all games played. For example, a given efficiency value (net points per 100 possessions) against stronger opposition rates higher than the same efficiency against lesser opponents and having a certain efficiency on the road rates higher than the same efficiency at home.

SEC Tournament Tidbits

Right now, the Longhorns appear to be locked into the No. 13 slot in the upcoming SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament, which would put them into the 2:30 p.m. Central game on Wednesday, March 12.

Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Arkansas, three teams who have yet to lose to the Longhorns this year, are the likely candidates for Texas to play in that first round game. Every one of those games would be a Quadrant 1 game for Texas, as would ensuing games in Nashville barring epic runs from South Carolina or LSU on the opposite side of the bracket.

Quadrant 1 games

Quadrant 1 games are home contests against teams ranked 1-30, neutral site games against teams ranked 1-50, and road games against teams ranked 1-75

Record: 5-9

Wins

• 1/15 – at No. 50 Oklahoma – 77-73
• 1/21 – No. 15 Missouri – 61-53
• 1/25 – No. 20 Texas A&M – 70-69
• 2/15 – No. 12 Kentucky – 82-78
• 3/4 – at No. 33 Mississippi State – 87-82

Losses

• 11/4 – vs. No. 36 Ohio State – 80-72
• 1/4 – at No. 20 Texas A&M – 80-60
• 1/7 – No. 2 Auburn – 87-82
• 1/11 – No. 5 Tennessee – 74-70
• 1/18 – at No. 4 Florida – 84-60
• 1/29 – at No. 28 Ole Miss – 72-69
• 2/8 – at No. 43 Vanderbilt – 86-78
• 2/11 – No. 6 Alabama – 103-80
• 2/26 – at No. 39 Arkansas – 86-81

Quadrant 2 games

Quadrant 2 games are home contests versus teams ranked 31-75, neutral site contests against teams ranked 51-100, and away games against teams ranked 76-135

Record: 2-4

Wins

• 11/22 – vs. No. 87 St. Joseph’s – 67-58
• 2/1 – at No. 84 LSU – 89-58

Losses

• 12/8 – No. 34 UConn – 76-65
• 2/1 – No. 39 Arkansas – 78-70
• 2/22 – at No. 88 South Carolina – 84-69
• 3/1 – No. 32 Georgia – 83-67

Quadrant 3 games

Quadrant 3 games are home contests against teams ranked 76-160, neutral site games against teams ranked 101-200, and away games against teams ranked 136-240

Record: 3-0

Wins

• 11/21 – vs. No. 139 Syracuse – 70-66
• 12/4 – at No. 138 NC State – 63-59
• 12/12 – No. 142 New Mexico State – 91-67

Quadrant 4 games

Quadrant 4 games are home games against teams ranked 161 or higher, neutral site games against teams ranked 201 or higher, and away contests against teams ranked 241 or higher

Record: 7-0

Wins

• 11/8 – No. 283 Houston Christian – 90-59
• 11/12 – No. 359 Chicago State – 105-58
• 11/16 – No. 364 Mississippi Valley State – 89-43
• 11/29 – No. 304 Delaware State – 90-68
• 12/15 – No. 363 Arkansas-Pine Bluff – 121-57
• 12/19 – No. 348 New Orleans – 98-62
• 12/29 – No. 234 Northwestern State – 77-53

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Upcoming games

• 3/8 – No. 50 Oklahoma – Quadrant 2