Texas vs. Oklahoma: Five things to watch

The No. 20 Texas Longhorns head to Norman, Okla. on Tuesday for a rivalry matchup with the Oklahoma Sooners. This iteration of the Red River Shootout is Texas’ first game against a team outside of the AP top 25 since the contest at TCU on January 25, which the Longhorns won 73-50.

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Texas defeated Oklahoma in Austin on January 11, 66-52. Since then, Chris Beard’s bunch has a 5-4 record while Porter Moser’s Sooners are 2-7 with losses to Kansas, Baylor, and Auburn and an upset win over Texas Tech.

The rivalry has seen some exciting moments in recent years when Shaka Smart’s teams would match up with Lon Kruger squads. New eras have started in both Austin and Norman, and Beard and Moser will face off in the Lloyd Noble Center for the first time in their tenures.

[Texas at Oklahoma: How to watch, odds, predictions from ESPN, KenPom]

Tanner Groves watch

When Texas topped Oklahoma in January, Sooner forward Tanner Groves put up just three points on 1-of-1 shooting. The Eastern Washington transfer was a non-factor, held well below his 13 points per game average.

Tanner’s brother, Jacob, reached double-figures versus the Longhorns in the Erwin Center, posting 10 points on 4-of-8 shooting. While the Longhorns should keep the lesser-known brother in mind, the Sooners’ fortunes will depend strongly on how well Tanner plays.

Attention should still be paid to other Oklahoma players, like second-leading scorer Umoja Gibson (13 points per game), but Sooner hopes depend on Tanner’s play. When he is held to single digits, OU is 3-4. When he reaches the 10-point threshold, OU is 11-7.

Turnovers

It’s simple, when Texas doesn’t turn the ball over more than 10 times, they are 8-1 with the lone loss to No. 1 Gonzaga. Ten or more turnovers, and Texas sinks down to 10-6.

Five of those eight wins have come against Big 12 opponents, so they weren’t stacked up against opponents from Texas’ bottom-30 difficulty in KenPom non-conference schedule. They came in important conference victories versus Oklahoma, Iowa State, TCU, Kansas State, and Kansas.

Texas is tough to beat when it takes care of the ball, and Oklahoma is simply average (by Big 12 standards) at forcing turnovers. The Sooners are No. 82 nationally and seventh in the Big 12 in turnovers forced at 14.4 per game. Conversely, Texas is in the top ten percent nationally in that same metric, ranking No. 31 and forcing 15.7 turnovers per game.

Texas is the only team in the 2021-22 season that kept its turnover numbers in the single digits versus the Sooners with nine. Even then-No. 1 Auburn couldn’t match that feat during their victory over OU.

Taking care of the ball normally is a good barometer for success. That’s likely to be the case again Tuesday night.

New opportunity on the road

In his search to make the Erwin Center a better homecourt environment during its final year and heading into the first season in the Moody Center, Beard has defended the Longhorns’ home well. Texas is 15-1 at home, and the only loss came by a margin of one point.

That means that Texas hasn’t fared particularly well away from the Erwin Center. The Longhorns have one neutral site win versus Stanford, but are a disappointing 2-6 in true road games.

Several of those road games have been difficult tests, like No. 1 Gonzaga, No. 23 Seton Hall, No. 14 Texas Tech, and No. 8 Baylor. Rivalry games typically bring out the crowds, and that should hold true in Norman, Okla., but this could be Texas’ best opportunity remaining on the schedule to snag a win away from home.

Doing so would give Texas another all-important Quadrant 1 win considering the Sooners don’t seem likely to drop out of the top 75 in the NET rankings. Of course, it would also improve the Longhorns’ Big 12 record to 8-5.

Is there a magic number on defense?

Since Texas and Oklahoma last faced each other, the Longhorn defense has allowed 54 points per game in their five wins. In the four losses, Texas allows 76 points per game.

When Texas is locked in on defense, it’s tough for opponents to top the 60-point threshold and therefore win. When opponents are able to exploit Texas’ lack of athleticism at guard and lack of size in the paint, they can get to the 65, 70, and even 75-point marks that the Longhorn offense can struggle to reach at times.

As mentioned, Tanner Groves’ performance will have a huge say in whether Oklahoma reaches the indicative 60-point mark. If Texas can hold the Sooners below that number, it should mean Texas picks up victory No. 19.

Fun times in the Shootout

The two schools have played in several thrilling matchups in recent years, and are evenly matched 3-3 in the last six matchups.

In 2021, Texas won in Norman avenging a one-point loss at home in which Smart could not sit on the bench due to COVID-19.

In 2020, Texas once again got payback for a loss in the Erwin Center when Matt Coleman hit a buzzer-beating three-pointer to give the Longhorns a one-point win just before the 2019-20 season ended.

Texas and Mohamed Bamba made sure Trae Young never defeated the Longhorns during his lone season in Norman in 2017-18.

And, of course, amid a dismal season in 2016-17, Andrew Jones hit a three-pointer at the buzzer to provide a singualar highlight in a season without very many.

Just like in the football edition of the Red River Shootout, crazy things can happen in the basketball version of the rivalry. Considering some of the results for both teams this season, expect that to hold true on Tuesday night.