Texas vs the Top Contenders: Is Arch Manning the best QB on an elite team?

Throughout the 2025 offseason, something rare in the portal era of college football has occurred: continuity. A piece of the college football world has remained constant from the final second of the national championship to the scorching start of summer. How rare is that?

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Vegas has consistently favored five teams for the 2026 national title: Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, Penn State, and Oregon. In a time when everything changes month to month, such consistency is unusual.

IT published an article detailing nine teams that could win the national championship, using early SP+ rankings and betting odds to highlight teams with the talent and insider confidence needed to contend. SP+ still ranks five of these teams in the top six, with Alabama sneaking in. Clemson, LSU, and Notre Dame round out the list.

As the spring transfer portal closes and summer camp begins, the focus shifts to how Texas stacks up against these other favorites when it matters most. If the Longhorns face the Bulldogs, Buckeyes, Ducks, or Nittany Lions, where might they have an edge?

The first position to evaluate is quarterback, the general of the offense and the most important player on the field. Title contenders either need a game-changing quarterback or a team so strong that even a capable floor-raiser allows others to shine. Spoiler: there aren’t teams like that heading into 2025.

It’s an unprecedented year for quarterbacks at the top of the sport. While five of the last eight semifinal teams relied on experienced starters, this year’s top five teams are largely breaking in new signal-callers, with Penn State’s Drew Allar the lone exception.

Allar instantly becomes one of the top quarterbacks in this group of five teams. At worst, he’s a high-value game manager who limits mistakes. Among 48 Power 5 quarterbacks with over 350 passing attempts, Allar ranked in the bottom 10 for turnover-worthy plays and had just five fumbles on 81 rushing attempts. With another year in a solid system and improved wide receivers, Allar could develop into a high-level passer, but for now, he’s at the top of the “hit or miss” list.

DREW ALLAR AND TYLER WARREN GET PENN STATE ON THE BOARD FIRST‼️ pic.twitter.com/R4cCIwK4yO

— ESPN (@espn) January 1, 2025

Texas may lead the group. Arch Manning, though inexperienced like Gunner Stockton, Dante Moore, and Julian Sayin, has inspired immense confidence in Austin. Manning looked like a game-changer in limited 2025 action, and his No. 1 Heisman odds reflect Vegas’s belief in his superstar potential. For context, Sayin and Moore have odds three times worse than Manning, while Stockton isn’t close to the group.

At this moment, Allar’s experience might make him more prepared for a big game, but by the College Football Playoff, Texas should have the edge. Georgia is fielding a true game manager, Ohio State relies on a quarterback who just needs to distribute the ball, and Oregon’s Moore remains unproven after a rough freshman season at UCLA. Manning is the only quarterback in this group with true ceiling-raising potential—unless Allar evolves into one.

In Tier 2, QB talent shines with Cade Klubnik (Clemson) and Garrett Nussmeier (LSU). Both have flaws but are among the most polished arms entering 2026. These quarterbacks, along with other positional strengths, could allow Clemson and LSU to upset the teams above them. In a shootout against Oregon or Ohio State, Clemson and LSU would hold the quarterback advantage.

The tiers break down like this:

Tier 1: Manning, Klubnik, Nussmeier
Tier 1.5: Allar
Tier 2: Stockton, Moore, Alabama’s Ty Simpson
Tier 3: Sayin, Notre Dame’s CJ Carr

There’s room for movement in the lower tiers. Sayin could excel, though much depends on how well he gets the ball to Jeremiah Smith. Ty Simpson might approach Allar’s level given his supporting cast, but that remains to be seen.

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Placing Manning in Tier 1 may feel premature given Texas’ overall talent, but let’s be honest. Texas wouldn’t hold the No. 1 spot in SP+ and Vegas odds, and Manning wouldn’t be the Heisman favorite and top-ranked 2026 NFL draft QB if he weren’t special. You’ve been reading enough this offseason to know how good he’ll be. Manning is poised to be a game-changer for Texas, giving the Longhorns a critical edge when the stakes are highest this winter.