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Texas will need to overcome second half swoons to beat Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl

Eric Nahlinby:Eric Nahlin•01/05/25
AJ Milwee, Steve Sarkisian
AJ Milwee, Steve Sarkisian (Will Gallagher/Inside Texas)

So far the playoffs have been a tale of two contests for Texas. The Longhorns played one of their cleaner, more well-balanced games of the season against the Clemson Tigers in the first round of the playoffs. Against Arizona State in the second round, Texas was fortunate to inch by the Sun Devils in overtime after holding a 16-point lead in the fourth quarter. 

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When Texas is good, it is typically great. When Texas is poor, it is typically really poor. It is often both within the same game. That’s why you’ve seen a number of games in which Texas exerted game control everywhere except the scoreboard. 

To beat Ohio State, a team that is peaking at the right time and playing to its talent level, the Horns will have to play its cleanest game of the year.

Let’s look at major a theme Steve Sarkisian‘s team will have to overcome this Friday if it wants to advance to the championship game.

Second half swoons

Opponent1st Q points2nd Q points3rd Q points4th Q pointsOTFinal score
Vanderbilt1473327-24
Arkansas733720-10
Kentucky7170731-14
Texas A&M7100017-7
Georgia 33010319-22
Clemson7213738-24
Arizona State143071539-31
5964941

Texas scored more in two possessions of overtime against Arizona State than it did against its last seven opponents in the third quarter, minus Florida.

Florida was omitted because that game was over in the first half. If that game was tallied up it would only make the discrepancy between the first and second halves greater. Texas did manage a touchdown in the third quarter, though!

As you can see, third quarters are really bad but second halves have been bad in general compared to first halves. Some might conclude Texas has to play much better on offense in the second half to beat Ohio State, and I’m certainly inclined to agree, but perhaps the more accurate takeaway is Texas really needs to score a lot of points on the opening script and in the first half while hoping the defense can hold onto a lead in the second half.

How likely is it Texas will all of a sudden start playing good offensive football in the third quarter? Not only that, but against Ohio State?

What are second-half issues attributable to?

What the table above hints at but doesn’t explicitly say, is, Texas often finds itself with a clear first half lead, often in part thanks to an opening script that has now run out.

Sark is typically not as aggressive in second halves, more often than not he’s content with choking his opponent out with the run game. Sometimes, like against Clemson, that works exceptionally well. Other times, like against Arizona State, it doesn’t work at all.

Sometimes the script allows the offense to score from beyond the red zone in the first half. In the second half, we often see struggles in the red zone.

General sloppiness seems to be much more present in the second half of games. The third quarter against Kentucky was one of the most bizarre exhibitions of football I’ve seen.

Penalties and turnovers tend to increase in the second half. Is this attributable to lack of focus stemming from holding the lead? Is it due to a rehearsed script running out?

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I don’t know exactly, but perhaps the fix is a four-quarter dogfight in which Texas can’t afford to lose focus and must stay aggressive through the air to have a chance to win.

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