The Red River Shootout: Which Unit Is The Outlier?

If you compare the four primary units on the field in the Red River Shootout, you end up with two charts that look like this.

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A quick definition of EPA. Just think of it as the efficacy of each play given game context. A two yard run from your 20 on 2nd and 9 isn’t so great, but a two yard run on 4th and 1 in the opponent red zone is.

Also, Eckel Rate.

Texas Offense vs Oklahoma Defense

0.088	16	EPA/RUSH	7	-0.120
0.252	3	EPA/DROPBACK	19	-0.086
59.3%	10	Eckel Rate	5	21.2%
4.86	8	Pts/Eckel	7	2.13
31.1	11	Field Position	5	24.9
0.218	14	Early Downs EPA	42	-0.086
53.4%	7	3rd/4th down Success	35	34.5%

I think the Texas offense has some clear edges in this matchup, but when you factor in Brent Venables’ penchant for surprises and the bye week, this looks like a fair fight. Oklahoma’s defense is far from dominant, but they have a knack for predicting calls and coming up with big plays and turnovers.

However, if Texas can block ’em up, the cornerbacks and nickel that Oklahoma badly wants to hide will be revealed. More on that later in the Tuesday game preview.

On the other hand…

Texas Defense vs Oklahoma Offense

-0.116	9	EPA/RUSH	57	0.027
-0.146	3	EPA/DROPBACK	85	-0.040
16.4%	1	ECKEL RATE	89	40.6%
1.30	2	PTS/ECKEL	76	3.56
26.3	40	FIELD POSITION	4	32.0
-0.193	11	EARLY DOWNS EPA	116	-0.164
31.0%	13	3rd/4th down Success	124	30.0%

There’s one clear unit outlier this coming Saturday: the Oklahoma Sooner offense.

Texas needs to perform well on both sides of the ball, but the onus is on the Texas defense and its staff to dominate.

The Sooners have struggled to find their footing on the offensive line, they lack explosive skill players and they had to bench their starting QB. They struggle on 1st down and 3rd/4th and they’ve not shown much capacity for methodical drives.

The Sooner offense also has 20 penalties through 5 games. Their OL has surrendered 44 pressures. By contrast, the Longhorn OL has allowed 16.

So far, their offense has been an occasional explosive play, check downs and a lot of punting.

Other than that, things are going swimmingly in Norman.

By simple counting stats, the Sooners are averaging 4.7 yards per play and less than 300 yards per game. Their 28.6 points per game scoring average has been considerably buoyed by defensive scores and short fields.

On the positive side, Oklahoma’s OL is healing up over the bye week, they’ve reshuffled their line starters and they have a new QB in freshman Michael Hawkins who has stopped turning the ball over and gives them a true dual running threat. There’s a chance some receivers return from injury (or their holdout?) but no one truly knows.

The bye week was spent forging an identity that makes use of Hawkins’ legs, a lot of misdirection to disguise some basic run plays and play action and finding 2-3 comfort routes. Not to mention the obligatory trick play. If Texas doesn’t anticipate that, shame on us.

Hawkins is 23 of 37 for 310 yards as a passer and has rushed for 101 yards in effectively 1.5 games of action. He’s a single read QB who has been sacked 5 times on 56 drop backs. He has only 3 attempts at 20+ yards, but he hit a big one for 60 against Auburn. That’s in complement to a 48 yard touchdown run on a QB draw. Other than those two plays, he didn’t do much against War Eagle. Nor did the Sooner offense.

While PK has done a fine job at Texas overall, opponent specific game planning, anticipatory preparation and a willingness to ruthlessly throttle an opponent where they’re lacking has not been his modus operandi. He’s not overly impulsive and tends to stick to his overarching philosophy of limiting explosives and stopping offenses on key downs, sometimes to the detriment of pushing a Longhorn strength against an opponent weakness to create game-altering havoc and disruption.

Pace has also been an issue, though OU will use it advisedly given their own inadequacies.

Havoc and disruption are rewarded in the Cotton Bowl. Particularly as a confidence killer against freshman quarterbacks behind shaky offensive lines with limited supporting skill options. A five man box with a distant nickel blitz against three or four wide on 3rd and 6 ain’t it. Let’s not act surprised when the QB draw goes for 8 yards and a new set of downs.

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It’s important that the Texas staff formulate a complementary game plan on both sides of the ball. The Texas offense certainly needs to get off to a good start and attack without fear, but the expectation for the Texas stop unit should be offensive defense: turnovers, negative yardage possessions, short fields, big play disruption.