The Texas-Notre Dame Preview

Naashon Hughes. (Will Gallagher/IT)

Vegas only has the Irish as 3.5-point favorites in this game, which is unusual for a Texas game who’s fans traditionally love to pour money in on. I can understand the line, there’s a lot to like about this matchup for Texas.

But let’s take a quick reality check before discussing how Texas could win this game. You ready? Here we go…

Perhaps the entire Irish OL and everyone on the Irish DL save for Andrew Trumbetti would likely start at Texas. What’s more, both of the quarterbacks battling for the starting role in South Bend would easily beat out either Tyrone Swoopes or Shane Buechele for the starting job in Austin. I’m not saying they are more talented over at Notre Dame, I’m just saying that’s where things stand right now. Superiority in both trenches and at the most important position are some pretty big advantages.

Now the good news is that the Fighting Irish might struggle to rally as a team without an established leader at quarterback (happened to Ohio State last year) and Brian VanGorder’s defense looks like it could be vulnerable against Texas’ new Veer and Shoot scheme if the Longhorn signal-callers can execute it properly. At safety in particular they are rolling out a pair of players that definitely weren’t recruited to carry sub 10.6 sprinters out to the numbers on deep routes.

Hopefully Texas can burn those guys some on runs and screens where some Irish fellow or another loses contain or takes a bad angle and hangs their whole defense out to dry. However, the design of this offense is to burn them by finding the good matchup and picking it like a scab with vertical option routes. The easiest way to do this is with a four-receiver set and the prototypical “Veer and Shoot” RPO that you’ve seen Baylor destroy opponents with for years.

My guess is that VanGorder will match four-wide Texas formations with a 3-3 nickel sub-package that replaces weakside end Trumbetti with freshman sensation Daelin Hayes in a stand-up technique or else one of their linebackers. That way the Irish can disguise who’s coming and who is dropping over the slot receivers on the frequent blitzes they will unquestionably dial up.

Even then, in a four-wide set it’s simply a matter of Gilbert determining who’s matched up on a safety or linebacker and sending them on a vertical option route and then the QB identifying where the weak spot is and throwing a good deep ball into open grass.

Notre Dame will always have either a linebacker or safety trying to handle a slot on a vertical option route AND its second corner doing the same. The nature of the fire zone blitz is that not everyone gets help in coverage. The deep safety is going to tend more towards assisting the linebacker or nickel in the middle, which leaves a corner alone against a deep post.

Veer and Shoot teams practice this play a ton and generally the quarterback knows which receiver he’s throwing to before the snap based on alignment, then he’s just reading the leverage and chucking it. Here’s how this is likely to turn out:

There are two trouble spots for Notre Dame here. The first is that free safety dropping down (Avery Sebastian) and then trying to turn his hips and run with someone like Jerrod Heard or Devin Duvernay on a deep route. The strong safety is going to tend to shade in that direction to help out and at least deny the post even if he can’t get over the top of a fade. Now that opposite corner has to be able to hold up in a ton of open grass against the other receiver.

Devin Duvernay. (Will Gallagher/IT)

Perhaps the best things about this offense are that they’ll run this play with the offensive line blocking inside zone, which causes hesitation for the blitzers, and they’ll run it often. Traditionally teams have picked their spots to take deep shots but in the Veer and Shoot, it’s always a good time to chuck it deep on a mismatched defender in space.

I’m not sure VanGorder has faced an attack before that is so aggressive and unrelenting, he’s probably used to opponents being cowed by the threat of the blitz. This is how Veer and Shoot teams have overcome talent disadvantages to absolutely light up opposing defenses. Most Big 12 defenses will just try to keep things in front and hang on for dear life against these tactics; the Irish will probably try to go mano-y-mano with six points on the line every play. If that doesn’t work out, it’s possible Texas could overcome the advantages on the lines and at QB and pull this thing out.