There are notable trends in the Longhorns' last seven losses

Quinn Ewers has lost eight games as a starting quarterback for Texas, including the Alabama loss in 2022 where he only played one quarter of football. Those losses contain some trends that might explain the results a bit more, and provide a better idea to help recognize if the Longhorns are in the middle of a game that looks like the other defeats they’ve suffered since the start of conference play in 2022.

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When Texas loses a game Ewers starts, it often creates a conflicting box score. You will find most of his 300+ yard games but also contests with bad touchdown-to-interception ratios and bad completion percentages. It’s a convoluted mess of quarterback play.

In five of the seven losses listed, Texas struggled to run the ball. In the games Texas did run the ball well, rushing was difficult in the second half. In 2022, Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson were destroying the Oklahoma State defense on the ground, picking up 160 yards on 18 carries (8.9 ypc) in the first half. In the second half with a seven point lead, Texas rushed for 44 yards on 14 carries (3.1 ypc).

Cedric Baxter and Jaydon Blue were dominating the Washington defense running the ball, but they both fumbled in the second half to put Texas behind the 8-ball. That’s all to point out that the run game has struggled when it mattered most in the seven losses in games Ewers started and finished.

The reason that needed to be said first is due to the importance of the run game in Steve Sarkisian‘s offense. Back at Alabama, Sarkisian said “the hard part with this is as an offensive coach and a guy who believes in running the football… if you give the quarterback too many options and all you do is throw the ball, at some point in my opinion you lose the identity of your program and you lose the identity of physicality and toughness that this game is built upon. This a physical ass sport.”

Without the run game humming the offense that prides itself in being balanced loses some of its effect. When Rich Eisen recently asked Sarkisian about Ewers not looking the same now as he did against Michigan, here was his response: “I think where we need to improve is we gotta keep trying to play better around him. When our running game is not going we become somewhat of a limited offensive football team.”

Question at 2:00 mark

💻 @CoachSark

Quinn Ewers has been great all season for @TexasFootball but could we see more Arch Manning in the College Football Playoff? #CFBPlayoff #HookEm pic.twitter.com/8nr5rTALiF

— Rich Eisen Show (@RichEisenShow) December 12, 2024

That takes us to the passing numbers. Not only does the lack of a run game hurt the effectiveness of the passing attack, it forces Texas to spam the ball through the air. Sometimes that’s because it’s the only thing that’s working. In other instances, it’s because Texas simply needs to catch up. That can lead to some riskier throws and interceptions.

The effectiveness of the run game is crucial. Play-action pass deteriorates when defensive players aren’t giving real creedence to the run.

This doesn’t absolve Ewers from the losses and this exercise isn’t attempting to do that. He made his fair share of critical mistakes in these games. Just look at his dismal completion percentages against Oklahoma State and TCU in 2022, his turnovers against Oklahoma in 2023, and, well, everything from the first matchup with Georgia in 2024.

However that doesn’t mean perfection should expected to overcome those issues in other parts of the game. Therein lies the rub with Ewers. Expecting perfection or something approaching it when the ball is placed in his hands over and over and over because of run game failures isn’t reasonable.

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One other thing that can’t be ignored: Georgia Pt. I was the only one of those losses decided by a margin greater than one score. It’s hard to see this defense letting the Longhorns down, so all eyes are on the ground game. If it’s not there, then Ewers will be tasked with pulling Texas up a mountain he hasn’t always been able to climb.