This Arch Manning stat could be a sign of more good times to come

It is no surprise that Arch Manning is picking up a ton of hype right now. Much of that is due to the Manning name that has produced three College Football Hall of Fame inductees. However, there are signs we are in store for exceptional quarterback play from the next prodigy from the Manning family.

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When analyzing statistics, you try to find metrics that share a relationship. The stronger the correlation, the more confidence you can have that both stats will rise and fall together. Passer rating and yards per pass attempt, for example, are strongly correlated, as they reflect a quarterback’s efficiency and ability to generate big plays.

When looking at the graphs below, you can tell of the six statistics on the y-axis that share a relationship with the x-axis’ overall passer rating, yards/attempt and ‘boom %’ stand apart from the others.

We will be looking yards/attempt and passer rating today, but the ‘boom %’ can be put in our back pocket for future use.

Passer rating is the x-axis in every graph.

On the y-axis…

• EPA/play
• Points Above Average/play
• Air Yards/attempt
• On target percentage
• Yards/attempt
• Boom%

All graphs are SEC quarterbacks in 2024 with no minimum pass attempt filter…Note that QB Rating and Passer Rating are separate stats, this is passer rating.

Expected Points Added; the total change in the offense’s Expected Points that came on passes thrown by the player. Expected points (EP) accounts for factors such as down, distance to go, field position, home-field advantage and time remaining.

PAA Per Play: Points Above Average per pass play. Points Above Average: The total of a player’s Expected Points Added responsibility on passes using the Total Points system that distributes credit among all players on the field for a given play. For passers, this includes accounting for offensive line play, sacks, off-target passes, dropped passes, and dropped interceptions.

AirYards: The number of yards the ball travels downfield from the line of scrimmage to where the wide receiver catches the ball

On-Target%: The number of on-target/catchable throws a quarterback makes divided by the total number of pass attempts. Does not include plays with no reasonable accuracy expectation such as: spikes, throwaways, QB/WR miscommunications, receiver slips, and passes batted at the line of scrimmage.

Y/A: Yards per pass attempt

Boom%: The percentage of pass attempts that resulted in an EPA of at least 1 (i.e. a very successful play for the offense)

As you can see there is a much stronger correlation with Yards/Attempt and Boom% to a quarterbacks passer rating. Since 2016, only thirteen quarterbacks in the Power 5 have achieved a passer rating of 125.0 or higher and at least 10.0 yards per pass attempt (minimum 85 attempts). Manning is one of those thirteen of 849 total quarterbacks placing him in the top 2% of quarterbacks since 2016.

That list of thirteen quarterbacks? Yeah, they aren’t bums. Four are Heisman trophy winners, three were No. 1 overall draft picks, and eight were first round draft selections. One could argue this is pretty darn good company to have as an aspiring college quarterback.

It’s no secret that Steve Sarkisian is a common denominator here as well. With many of his quarterbacks playing better in year three of his system, Manning will look to improve on his 2024 play during his redshirt sophomore year.

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The only real question will be, can he keep this up over the course of a full college season? If he can and does, it likely means some plans will need to be made for December and January football. The interesting part of this is Manning could appear on the list three separate times if he decides to return for a 2026 season.