Three important matchups in Texas vs. Oklahoma
Texas is No. 1 in the nation entering Red River, which you’d think would be familiar territory for a historic program. However it’s the first time since 2008 that the Longhorns are No. 1 and the first time since 1984 that Texas will be playing in the Cotton Bowl in mid-October as the top ranked team. That game in 1984 ended in a tie, an outcome impossible for today’s affair.
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The Longhorns are 14.5-point favorites, the biggest spread for Texas in Red River since 2005. We all know what happened that year. Being favored in this rivalry hasn’t meant much in recent history as it has mostly been Oklahoma in that role. The Sooners have either failed to cover or been outright upset multiple times in the last decade. Nobody needs to be reminded of the 2015 Charlie Strong team who at 1-4 upset Baker Mayfield’s Oklahoma.
For Texas to avoid some catastrophic upset loss against a beleaguered Oklahoma team the Horns have to win a few of these key matchups.
The first key is Texas’ running game versus that stout Oklahoma front seven. The running game needing to improve has been something Texas fans have been clamoring for since the start of the season. Maybe Texas fans had become spoiled with the likes of Bijan Robinson and Jonathon Brooks, but no one has truly solidified themselves as a true No. 1 back to succeed them, especially since the untimely injury to CJ Baxter.
Texas’ rushing attack is undoubtedly the main question mark of the offense, ranking No. 37 nationally at 191.4 yards per game. When the weak spot is still top 40 nationally, that makes it clear it’s a different era of Texas football. Oklahoma conversely hangs their hat on their D-line and linebacker play, only giving up 105.6 yards per game which ranks No. 27 nationally. A lot of that is thanks to polarizing linebacker Danny Stutsman, who had a lot to say after last year’s last second win against Texas.
Texas is an elite pass blocking team, but the key will be getting to the second level and letting Stutsman know how it feels about those shirts he made after last year’s game.
The next key matchup will be Quinn Ewers‘ return as he faces Oklahoma’s secondary. Coming off the injury, rust is the concern for Ewers. He needs to be efficient, make quick reads and most importantly protect the ball. Last year’s turnovers were a bit of an anomaly. Ewers needs to make the easy read and let dynamic players like Isaiah Bond and Ryan Wingo do the rest.
Ewers has handled the return to injury process exceptionally well. Plus, you’ll rarely see him force one, so expect him to settle in after a couple drives and look similar to how he did in the Michigan game. Also like Michigan, there are questions as to whether Oklahoma will be able to stop this Longhorn passing attack. While Oklahoma has stars such as Billy Bowman Jr. on the back end, their corners are weak and the stats show that. The Sooners are No. 75 in pass defense and that’s against the likes of Auburn, Temple and Houston. Safe to say Ewers should like this matchup.
Lastly, let’s talk about a strong suit for Oklahoma. OU has 18 sacks already this year, which is top 10 in the nation. The Sooner defensive line has provided most of the dominance. R Mason Thomas leads the Sooners with 5.5 sacks already, Gracen Halton has 2.5 himself. That’s not to mention guys like Trace Ford who while only having one sack on the season thus far still provides a dangerous pass rush off the edge.
The Oklahoma pass rush is legit, SEC levels of legit, but thankfully for Texas the Longhorns have an offensive line on the Joe Moore Award Midseason Honor Roll. How far Texas has come in that room thanks to Kyle Flood.
IT will be watching how star LT Kelvin Banks Jr., a projected first round draft pick, performs against this stout pass rush. This season he’s allowed only one singular pressure and, that’s including the game against Michigan.
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Texas being a 14.5-point favorite means the Horns don’t have to necessarily win all of these key matchups convincingly but rather avoid getting outplayed significantly in any major statistical category.
There’s a reason the line is what it is. Oklahoma would have to drastically change their profile to pull off this upset and it’s hard to see barring any insane Red River witchcraft.
