3 advanced metrics to preview Texas Tech vs. Texas
After taking last week off due to Rice’s lack of both intellect and brutality, the nerd preview is back for Texas vs. Texas Tech!
If any of the terms used in this piece are unfamiliar to you check out this advanced stats glossary for a helping hand.
Scipio and Ian’s previews are the main course to get you ready for Saturday. Consider this article a nice plate of Fried Pickles to start off the preview meal.
SP+ loves Texas Tech’s 3-0 start
If you are not familiar with ESPN’s Bill Connelly or his metric “SP+” here is a quick explainer.
Bill is King Nerd in the college football analytics revolution. His metric SP+ is thought of as the gold standard in college football data modeling. For example, last week SP+ correctly picked 67% of college football games against the spread!
“SP+ ratings are tempo- and opponent-adjusted measures of college football efficiency based on play-by-play and drive data designed to be predictive and forward-facing.”
At this early stage of the season, preseason predictions are still heavily weighted to prevent wild fluctuations from week to week. Even with preseason expectations acting as an anchor, Texas Tech has moved up 17 spots from No. 70 to No. 53. Without that anchor things get a bit ridiculous…
Like Bill mentioned in his tweet, the two-game sample size has no predictive value. However it does illustrate how the Red Raiders, especially on the defensive side of the ball are exceeding expectations.
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Tech’s defense has jumped from 80th in preseason SP+ 19 spots to 61st, much of that having to do with their tremendous run defense.
The Raiders experienced unit is holding opponents to 2.1 yards per carry and have forced interceptions on a staggering 7.46% of opponents’ throws.
Before we move on it is incredibly important (alliteration quadruple combo) to mention that SP+ does not factor in FBS vs. FCS games. The thought being that racking up massive wins vs. The Citadel or SE Missouri State would negatively impact predictive ability.
For Texas Tech the opposite happened. Stephen F. Austin pushed the Red Raiders to the limit in week two and came up just short on 4th & goal with under a minute left to lose a heart breaker 28-22.
So while I’m not ready to say the Raiders surge up the analytical rankings is fraudulent, I am keeping a close eye on their next two games vs. Texas and West Virginia.
If you want to follow SP+ on a weekly basis, check out Inside Texas user @Sonny’s thread!
EPA Report
Texas Tech’s offense is pretty simple to break down using Expected Points Added. The passing attack is generating nearly 95% of the total team EPA while the rushing attack put up a shocking -0.67 rushing EPA vs. FIU.
SaRodrick Thompson returning to the lineup at full health will help the Red Raiders ground game, but as I’ll explain later there are signs that Tech’s experienced offensive line might just not have what it takes to sustain an efficient rush.
The passing attack is led by Oregon quarterback transfer Tyler Shough and junior wide receiver Erik Ezukanma. Ezukanma leads the Big12 in receiving yards and was instrumental in Tech’s come from behind victory to open up the season vs. Houston.
Ezukanma’s 7 catches for 179 yards on 10 targets vs. Houston generated 14.23 EPA and a 32% win probability added. Texas fans will remember Ezukanma from performances in 2019 and 2020 where he combined for 14 receptions, 226 receiving yards, and 2 TDs against the Longhorns.
How the Texas defensive backs fare in contested catch scenarios vs. Ezukanma will be one of the key storylines for Saturday. If the Longhorns can force Shough off his primary read their chances of getting a stop increase significantly.
Texas Tech offensive line struggles
Before we look at the numbers I’ll quickly explain the difference between “highlight rushing yards” and “OL line yards”. Highlight rushing yards refer to yards picked up by the rusher after the offensive line is taken out of the play. While OL Line yards measure the offensive line’s impact from 0-8 yards.
A good example is Keilan Robinson’s 65-yard touchdown run against Rice. The Texas OL executes their blocks perfectly which leaves Robinson untouched for the first 8 yards of the rush, giving Texas “6 OL line yards” 4 for the initial four yards and .5 yards between yards 4 and 8. The remaining 57 “highlight rushing yards” are all due to Keilan Robinson’s speed and acceleration.
Against Houston and FIU the Red Raider rushing attack generated only 1.91 OL Line yards per carry. A mark that would rank second to last in the Big12 in 2020. Neither game featured a fully healthy SaRodrick Thompson, but it didn’t seem to matter for Tech as the skill players combined to put up over 100 “highlight rushing yards” in each game.
My takeaway from Tech’s poor OL line yards but outstanding highlight rushing numbers is that Tech rushers have been able to feast on G5 defenders at the second and third level in the open field to hide what might be an inefficient rushing attack.
On paper, this matchup screams advantage Texas with their highly-touted stable of defensive lineman. Yet after a sluggish start against Louisana and a tap out against the Arkansas front five, confidence in the Horns 1st level is understandably low.
This matchup presents a perfect opportunity for the Texas DL to stuff the run and get their mojo back before the meat of the conference schedule gets underway.
