Three things to watch against Kansas

It’s very important that Texas beat Kansas this season.

Technically the Longhorns are still in the race to play in the Big 12 Championship Game. In my view, it’s a long shot. They need Kansas State to lose a game and the Wildcats play at West Virginia and then face Kansas at home. Neither of those are likely Ls for K-State.

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What’s arguably more relevant and important for Texas in this game is to avoid a seven-win season, avoid another humiliating loss to Kansas, make the best bowl game possible, and try to build momentum for the coming offseason. The Longhorns have very few players who’d be likely to opt out of a bowl game, many of their pro-caliber stars are still underclassmen, so they could have a great chance for a fun win in a better bowl game if they can get there.

Heading into Lawrence has always been a little tricky, it nearly derailed the 2018 Longhorn season, but it’s much trickier these days against a suddenly competent Kansas team. Here are the keys to a Texas victory.

Continue to play great run defense

Lance Leipold installed what you could call a pro-style run game in Lawrence, similar to the Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan offenses with their mix of wide zone base runs with different gap schemes. They’re primarily a 12 personnel team and have a solid pair of tight ends. Mason Fairchild is 6-foot-5, 261 pounds and the main man at the position. Jared Casey is a 6-foot-0, 251 pound former walk-on who emerged at the position when given a chance last year against…Texas. Think of him as a Cade Brewer facsimile.

The two have a combined eight touchdown passes and make a lot of their run game work. They’ll use them to set the edge on outside zone, to load up the perimeter on “Duo” runs, or to create confusion on zone-option schemes with the tight ends serving as lead blockers for quarterback keepers or quick outlet throws underneath.

Texas’ 2-4-5 defense has the same simple solution for any team looking to cause problems on the edge with option elements. They always contain the ball inside and force a run inside to the defensive tackles and linebackers. Their main quarters coverages also position Jerrin Thompson and Jahdae Barron (or Ryan Watts for that matter) near enough to prevent anything disastrous from occurring off the edge.

Here’s a good example from TCU of Texas’ dramatically improved play on the edge relative to a year ago, when the Jayhawks ran them ragged with outside zone and other schemes.

Texas' play in the 2-4-5 is miles better in 2022. pic.twitter.com/MCWwZIBLNp

— Special asst to the special asst to the HC (@Ian_A_Boyd) November 17, 2022

Ovie Oghoufo meets the pulling tight end (former Longhorn Jared Wiley) violently and tight inside to the box, limiting any potential cutback lane or bounce. The ball has to go inside to the defensive tackles and linebackers. They’re also using a Gary Patterson quarters coverage in the boundary to allow DeMarvion Overshown to fit into the box more quickly despite having a slot receiver across him.

Remember when the Longhorn defense was expected to be the limiting factor for this team?

Hit some passes

After seeing TCU completely lock down Texas by loading the box and sitting on the run game and intermediate throws Quinn Ewers was hitting against other opponents, Texas should bet on Kansas doing likewise.

The Jayhawks are a potentially dangerous team if they load the box, their extra run support defenders are safety Kenny Logan and Ohio State transfer Craig Young, who plays their nickel/Sam linebacker position. Logan is 210 pounds, leads the team in tackles, and is fifth in tackles amongst all Big 12 defenders (Overshown and Jaylan Ford are ahead of him).

Here’s the sort of alignment they’re likely to employ against Texas:

The danger zone for Texas is the free safety on the back end. The tighter he’s able to play on intermediate routes or the run game, the worse it gets for the Longhorns. The Sam and strong safety are a guarantee to play in the box whenever it isn’t ridiculous to do so.

If Ewers can finally hit some shots against Xavier Worthy, there’s no time like the present. Otherwise they’ll need to spread the Jayhawks out and mix in RPOs so they can create space to run the football.

Culture on display

Texas is probably fortunate to be playing in a letdown scenario against a team who beat them in humiliating fashion last season. If there was any question over whether Texas would still be properly motivated to go on the road and play a strong game it should be settled by the sting of last season’s defeat.

Last year Texas fell short in Ames, IA and faced a tirade from Bo Davis on the bus ride home. The next week against Kansas? They responded with a remarkably flat performance in which their defensive penchant for giving up the edge appeared to be worse than ever. This season needs to be very different.

Setting aside the possibility of a Big 12 Championship berth should Kansas State lose a game, these final two games should be pride games. Texas needs to play inspired ball to make what they can of this season and enter into the bowl practices with the right frame of mind.