Three things to watch against the Huskies

The 2022 Washington Huskies are probably the second toughest draw Texas has ever had in the Alamo Bowl. Oregon in 2013 is a clear no. 1, the Ducks were 11-2 and had a sophomore Marcus Mariota, De’Anthony Thomas, DeForest Buckner, and many of the players who’d drive a run to the title game the following season.

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Washington actually has a similar feel. They have an explosive offense, potential pros up and down the roster, and they’re probably in “the year before the year” so many of their best players are not opting out but instead participating in this game before hitting the gym and practice field in preparation for a big 2023.

Texas has some similar dynamics to their team, but with many more opt-outs from senior stars and less proven skill amongst the players opting in. Most importantly, Washington quarterback Michael Penix, Jr is playing in this game before trying to put together a big final season for the NFL but he’s already proven himself as a college signal-caller. Quinn Ewers will be trying to take another step toward proving himself on this stage and there’s no question whether his skill or eligibility would have taken him to the NFL after this season. The difference at quarterback is the main concern for Texas, but this is still a compelling battle between a pair of exciting teams.

Texas’ reflection on offense

You’d think Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer was a former grad assistant or worked under Steve Sarkisian’s mentor for how similar these two teams are on offense. They both have multi-tight end offenses with loads of motion and formations, pound away in the run game, but ultimately want to set up play-action shots in the passing game to bury opponents. It’s all very Chris Petersen, Boise-esque, just as Texas’ approach has been under Sark.

The Huskies have some key weapons but they get a lot done overall by committee. Receivers Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan have each caught 70 balls for over 1,000 receiving yards but a number of other receivers and tight ends have caught 20-40 balls as secondary targets. Their running back room split carries between Wayne Taulapapa and Cameron Davis with the two combining for 234 carries for 1301 yards at 5.6 ypc with 23 rushing touchdowns.

Washington runs the ball pretty regularly but they like to use it primarily for two purposes. Situational running, such as short-yardage and the red zone where coverage tightens up, and as a general change-up to create run/pass conflicts for their passing game. They don’t run the ball to run the ball, it’s a component of their overall attack.

The Husky line is a big, veteran group inside which excels at covering up defensive linemen with massive bodies and allowing their big backs to find creases and fall forward. They rotate between three guards up front:

• Jaxson Kirkland: A 6-foot-7, 340 pound redshirt senior.
• Ulumoo Ale: A 6-foot-6, 355 pound COVID junior.
• Henry Bainivalu: A 6-foot-6, 330 pound redshirt senior.

Again, for all that size they don’t necessarily excel at getting push but at refusing to allow penetration or free hitters from doing more than throwing sideways arm tackles at their runners. Their play-action protection schemes are tough to beat, particularly when paired with Penix’s plus mobility and knack for creating room in order to get planted throws off down the field.

Overall it really is akin to the offense Sark is building (and has built) in Austin. The Longhorns have a tough defense who won’t let anything come easy but Texas’ proclivity for committing a couple of busts per game would be extra costly in this one and completely clamping down this offense is probably not realistic. Texas will need to score.

Quinn Ewers’ big chance

Bowl game performances really matter for quarterbacks with fans. The bowl games are usually very well viewed and the fans really get into them, even though the teams feature opt outs and may or may not be particularly motivated to win.

Quinn Ewers has every reason to try and make a mark here. The last note of the season for Ewers was Texas proving down the stretch they could run on 8-man fronts but not 9-man fronts and this dynamic being the difference between sitting at home for the Big 12 Championship or hoisting the trophy. As tough as this was for his career and legacy, hope springs eternal and a big performance in the bowl game would go a long ways toward building momentum and confidence in and around the quarterback for 2023.

There’s an opportunity for the big game to come. Washington’s secondary is no longer the Match 3, NFL-laden unit of Jimmy Lake although their 2-4-5 front is more talented if less skilled than many of Pete Kwiatkowski’s units before he left for Austin. The Huskies rely on shifting everyone around to play a variety of coverages, often bringing safeties Alex Cook and Asa Turner down at the last minute to make their run defense work. They’re both good players and will have a chance to stifle Texas’ Bijan Robinson-less run game, but consequently Texas will definitely have chances to get Xavier Worthy running free down the field if they could finally hit him.

Texas would do well to mix in spread sets, RPOs, and particularly Ezekiel’s Wheel early in the game to establish some rhythm for Ewers in hopes he can finally land some shots later.

Landing Ezekiel’s Wheel a few times in big moments early in this game could be a great ticket to getting Ewers off to a good start. They have one Ace left to play with that scheme which the Huskies may not be prepared for, even if they’ve been repping this scheme in their bowl practices for weeks. They’ve yet to involve Worthy in doing more than running the clear out post which helps create space for the RPO. A fun wrinkle for this game would be to have someone else run the post and to bring Worthy in motion to serve as the target on the wheel route:

On this RPO the quarterback first reads the unblocked defensive end on the zone-read play. If he dives after the running back the quarterback pulls the ball and reads the flat defender. If the flat defender covers the wheel route, he checks down to the flat route from the tight end coming across the formation. If not, the quarterback hits the wheel.

Getting Worthy racing past a flat defender on the wheel, as the Kansas City Chiefs often have done on this play with Tyreek Hill, could be an extra jolt for this play. Even if the Will linebacker in this diagram turns to pick up the wheel, can he really stick with Worthy? And if not, can Ewers finally hit him in stride?

A glimpse into the future

Beyond the peek into how much Ewers has grown over bowl practices, this bowl game will provide the customary look into the next generation of Longhorn starters. Fans often make too much of bowl game performances (Casey Thompson in the 2020 Alamo Bowl comes to mind) but often the coming out party is real. Jaylan Ford showed terrific athleticism for the linebacker position in the 2020 Alamo Bowl even while Bijan Robinson was showing off clearly elite running talent.

Texas could turn to youngsters at several key positions in this contest who may have major roles in the 2023 campaign.

D.J. Campbell will likely continue to get heavy action at guard, where he’s already shown amazing run blocking prowess and terrifyingly freshman-like awareness in pass protection.

Morice Blackwell had some strong snaps at Sam linebacker late in the year and could get more either at Sam against the Huskies’ two-tight end formations or potentially closer to the ball at Will with DeMarvion Overshown opting out.

Ideally Texas can get something extra out of Ewers in this game in order to keep pace with Washington, but they should still score and produce points feeding the ball to Jonathon Brooks who’s likely to have a big introduction to the world on Thursday night.

I think this is going to be a more competitive and higher scoring Alamo Bowl than we’ve seen in most of the previous trips from Texas. We’ll see how the opt-out reduced Longhorns fare in trying to outscore a very strong, veteran team who will also be trying to build momentum as a National Contender in 2023.