Thursday NCAA Tournament Betting Tidbits
Some quick facts of interest for those of you who are “working from home” today or watching games on your computer with a fake spreadsheet in the other window.
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Right now, 69% of money and 67% of bets are on Yale in the Yale-A&M matchup tonight. Yale is +7.5 and they match up very well on paper. If A&M’s clanky guards can hit open threes, the physical Aggies will cover with margin. If not? This is a moneyline bet (Yale +275) that goes down to the wire.
By advanced metrics, this group of 1 seeds is the most dominant quartet over the last two decades. The disparity in Net Rating between Duke, Florida, Auburn and Houston and the rest of the field is meaningful. Conclusion? The Final Four may be chalky and there may be value in predicting first and second round blowouts. I have three 1 seeds in my Final 4.
Texas Tech is a fun dark horse to make the Elite 8. They’ve been chronically injured and though the Red Raiders are being cagey about it, the word out of Lubbock is that everyone is more or less healthy. KenPom loves them – they’re ranked 7th in the country. A very complete team when healthy, but how much ring rust do they need to shake off?
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The 5/12 matchup is .500 since 2018.
Do you like scoring? Purdue has an amazing offensive system, elite point guard play, and no rim protection on defense. 13 seed High Point has a deep array of skill players who can put the ball in the basket and play defense like a turnstile. This is High Point’s first NCAA in school history, so they’ll either be loose as a goose with nothing to lose or completely overwhelmed by the moment. For entertainment purposes, hope for the former.
Best style battle? BYU vs. VCU. BYU’s free-flowing offense is built around drilling 3s and making risky passes for open shots. They play little to no defense on most possessions. VCU is built around put-backs on offense and withering extended pressure. Something has gotta give.
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What do you guys have for today?
