What does Texas' NCAA Tournament resume look like halfway through SEC play?

The Texas Longhorns (15-7, 4-5 SEC) are sweating the NCAA Tournament bubble a little more than they’d prefer, but they’ll have a number of chances to boost a budding resume over the final month and change of the season thanks to the strength of the SEC.

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“This league is a bear, man,” Texas head coach Rodney Terry said Monday. “It is a bear. Every league, in conference play, there are difficult games to play no matter what league you play in. I just think in our league this year, we have exceptional teams, exceptional coaches, and really hard venues to play in. It’s a really physical league. Teams are really physical. They’re athletic. They don’t give you any good looks.”

Nine SEC teams are in the AP Top 25. Half of the top 10 hails from the conference. As many as 14 of the league’s 18 teams could make the field of 68. That’s created a league slate for Texas where every single game, home or away, is a chance to log quality victories for the committee to mull over on Selection Sunday.

So halfway through SEC play, what do the Longhorns’ March Madness chances look like?

Bracketology

According to BracketMatrix.com, whose data was updated on February 1, the Longhorns are in the field of 68 on all 91 of the site’s collected projections. Texas is currently on the 11-seed line, with an average seeding of 10.51. Other SEC teams projected to make the field by all 91 prognosticators include Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, and Georgia.

Texas is the last SEC team projected in.

An average seeding of 10.51 means Texas is a candidate to be sent to Dayton, Ohio as part of the First Four play-in games to determine which team makes it to round one to take on a 6-seed.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Texas as a nine-seed in his most recent projections.

For additional reference, Texas is No. 29 in KenPom and No. 27 in Bart Torvik’s T-Rank, two other advanced analytical rankings that is part of the data presented to the Selection Committee.

NET ranking

Texas is currently the No. 25 team in the NCAA’s all-important NET Ranking.

Here’s what the NET Ranking, or NCAA Evaluation Tool, is in the NCAA’s own words.

The 2024-25 men’s basketball season marks the seventh season of the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, which replaced the RPI prior to the 2018-19 season as the primary sorting tool for evaluating teams. In May 2020, the NCAA announced there will be changes made to the NCAA Evaluation Tool to increase accuracy and simplify it by reducing a five-component metric to just two.

The remaining factors include the Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home, as well as an adjusted net efficiency rating. The adjusted efficiency is a team’s net efficiency, adjusted for strength of opponent and location (home/away/neutral) across all games played. For example, a given efficiency value (net points per 100 possessions) against stronger opposition rates higher than the same efficiency against lesser opponents and having a certain efficiency on the road rates higher than the same efficiency at home.

Similarly, Texas is No. 29 in KenPom, and No. 27 in Bart Torvik’s T-Rank.

Quadrant 1 games

Quadrant 1 games are home contests against teams ranked 1-30, neutral site games against teams ranked 1-50, and road games against teams ranked 1-75

Record: 4-6

Wins

• 1/15 – at No. 37 Oklahoma – 77-73
• 1/21 – No. 21 Missouri – 61-53
• 1/25 – No. 14 Texas A&M – 70-69
• 2/1 – at No. 74 LSU – 89-58

Losses

• 11/4 – vs. No. 27 Ohio State – 80-72
• 1/4 – at No. 14 Texas A&M – 80-60
• 1/7 – No. 1 Auburn – 87-82
• 1/11 – No. 4 Tennessee – 74-70
• 1/18 – at No. 5 Florida – 84-60
• 1/29 – at No. 23 Ole Miss – 72-69

Quadrant 2 games

Quadrant 2 games are home contests versus teams ranked 31-75, neutral site contests against teams ranked 51-100, and away games against teams ranked 76-135

Record: 2-1

Wins

• 11/22 – vs. No. 87 St. Joseph’s – 67-58
• 12/4 – at No. 115 NC State – 63-59

Losses

• 12/8 – No. 32 UConn – 76-65

Quadrant 3 games

Quadrant 3 games are home contests against teams ranked 76-160, neutral site games against teams ranked 101-200, and away games against teams ranked 136-240

Record: 1-0

Wins

• 11/21 – vs. No. 134 Syracuse – 70-66

Quadrant 4 games

Quadrant 4 games are home games against teams ranked 161 or higher, neutral site games against teams ranked 201 or higher, and away contests against teams ranked 241 or higher

Record: 8-0

Wins

• 11/8 – No. 262 Houston Christian – 90-59
• 11/12 – No. 355 Chicago State – 105-58
• 11/16 – No. 364 Mississippi Valley State – 89-43
• 11/29 – No. 301 Delaware State – 90-68
• 12/12 – No. 174 New Mexico State – 91-67
• 12/15 – No. 363 Arkansas-Pine Bluff – 121-57
• 12/19 – No. 338 New Orleans – 98-62
• 12/29 – No. 242 Northwestern State – 77-53

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Upcoming games

• 2/5 – No. 47 Arkansas – Quadrant 2
• 2/9 – at No. 43 Vanderbilt – Quadrant 1
• 2/11 – No. 6 Alabama – Quadrant 1
• 2/15 – No. 19 Kentucky – Quadrant 1
• 2/22 – at No. 92 South Carolina – Quadrant 2
• 2/26 – at No. 47 Arkansas – Quadrant 1
• 3/1 – No. 34 Georgia – Quadrant 2
• 3/4 – at No. 31 Mississippi State – Quadrant 1
• 3/8 – No. 37 Oklahoma – Quadrant 2