What solutions are available to Texas in the red zone?

There have been a lot of complaints about the Texas offense coming away with zero touchdowns with two opportunities in the red zone versus Georgia, plus the failure in the overtime period. The main target for those complaints has been Quinn Ewers, and the most popular argument to back those complaints has been he is worse passing the ball in the red zone compared to quarterbacks at Alabama in offenses coordinated by Steve Sarkisian. How true is that argument, and if it isn’t true why are the Longhorns struggling in the red zone?

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Ewers has quite a fire under his rear when it comes to the fans right now, and a large part of that frustration seems to be his red zone passing. On the surface, Ewers was an abysmal 2 of 9 for five yards in the red zone vs. Georgia. Factor a drop on a play going nowhere into those stats.

What you won’t find in this article are any excuses about Ewers’ red zone performance versus Georgia. Ewers flat out missed a couple of open wideouts that could have changed the course of the game had they connected.

Ironically the issues Ewers had are probably something you would expect to see out of Arch Manning. A ton of arm talent that is looking to be very aggressive and overlooks the passes underneath. Ewers was overconfident in the red zone, either putting the ball in danger of being picked off or taking a shot in the play just before a receiver is wide open.

If you remember there was quite a fuss over Ewers and his aDOT being 6.0 yards. Ever since then he has had an aDOT of 9.2. Safe to say the complaints were heard but that change may be part of the blame here.

So how does Ewers compare to the Alabama quarterbacks passing in the red zone under Sarkisian? Well it’s slightly complicated but easily explained, especially when all of the sample sizes are within three attempts of each other.

Ewers is marginally more efficient when it comes to scoring on a per game basis. Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones were completing passes at a higher rate and gaining more yards. If we’re being honest the completion percentage looks worse than it really is, he is only five completions behind the 2019 duo of Jones/Tagovailoa and eight behind Jones in 2020. However he is on pace for 21 touchdowns in the red zone if he plays 13 games.

So when it comes to scoring the ball in the air, Ewers has that marginal lead and I’m sure his yardage might look better with a Heisman wideout on the team… but why are his attempts passing through 10 games the same as the Alabama teams through 13 games?

Look to the ground game for that answer. These pie charts represent the volume of passes from the Alabama/Texas QBs and volume of rushes from Alabama/Texas RB1 and RB2 in the red zone. The 2019 combo of Tagovailoa and Jones accounted for 45.1% of Alabama’s red zone volume, extremely similar to 2020 when Jones accounted for 40.3% of the red zone volume. Texas looks for Ewers to make things happen through the air 54% of the time.

In a Sarkisian offense that is predicated on success running the ball, that is is a big problem. Unless you think Sarkisian has lost his edge as a play caller, there is probably a good reason he is passing the ball more than before.

So what can Texas do about the running game in the red zone? There might be no other option than to turn to a two-QB system where Manning comes in to really be the power running threat.

The problem is Sarkisian doesn’t like running quarterbacks and that is especially true when it comes to the Lambo that is Manning. But Sark may have no choice but to do it and unleash more of it during the course of the College Football Playoff.

The good news is, Manning is a pretty damn good passer as well as a runner, so this isn’t a situation where he is one-dimensional.

Just for fun, how do Manning’s stats in the red zone compare to Ewers’?

To make this comparison somewhat even, I am going to only use five of Quinn’s games w/ comparable opponent strength. The sample for Ewers comes from Colorado State, Michigan, UTSA, Arkansas, and Kentucky. For Manning, it’s Colorado State, UTSA, ULM, Mississippi State, and Florida.

Now the scary part about that comparison is outside of those five games, Ewers is 15-of-36 for 37 yards with five touchdowns and one interception.

The questions remaining that may be answered soon are, might Manning experience something similar red zone when he is playing against top opponents? Or will Texas continue to look for solutions in the run game to help it work for Ewers?

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The answers may determine how far the Longhorns go in the College Football Playoff.