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What the advanced analytics say about Arch Manning's passing vs. UTEP

by: Justin Nash09/16/25
Arch Manning, Texas
Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

There is no arguing against the fact that Arch Manning just had his worst day as the Texas Longhorns signal caller. However, the advanced analytics point to a single quarter that destroyed Manning’s day. Let’s look at the analytics by each quarter.

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1st Q – 4 Att | 75% On-Tgt | 13.5 YPA | 116.7 Rating

Manning really didn’t get off to a bad start vs UTEP. He opened the game with a solid quarter where there was truly only one throw you could really complain about. He had a nice target to Parker Livingstone in the middle of the field in the intermediate (18 yard) range. He also threw a catchable target that drew a DPI in the end zone.

The one target he missed really stung and started some of the uneasy energy in the stadium. This would’ve been a massive pickup on 4th and 5. For some reason he and Ryan Wingo have seemingly been on separate wavelengths this season.

2nd Q – 12 Att | 27.3% On-Tgt | 1.3 YPA | 4.9 Rating

This quarter flat out sucked. Manning had a few good targets, but the problem was the amount of wide open wide receivers missed. Ironically one of the few good targets from Manning saw Jack Endries catching a ball. Unfortunately a few players later, Ryan Niblett had his route take him to the exact same spot as Endries, who could not complete the catch.

The misses in the second quarter were bad, guys were open for a touchdown three misses in a row. After that was just a build up of misfires that saw the fans in DKR start to boo the product they were seeing on the field. This was undoubtedly the worst quarter of football for Manning at Texas, and hopefully it stays that way.

3rd Q – 6 Att | 66.7% On-Tgt | 4.7 YPA | 77.1 Rating

No one is going to run away from the fact that this was UTEP and these stats were expected to be better. But considering the quarter before, this was a bounce back to find some sort of silver lining. Now most of this quarter was Manning running the ball and the few targets were mainly behind the line of scrimmage. However, this pass to Endries that offsetting penalties wiped away was nice to see.

There were still moments you wanted to see Manning pull the trigger on an open receiver or just slow down mentally. The tools are certainly here for a dangerous quarterback, he just needs confidence.

4th Q – 3 Att | 100% On-Tgt | 5.7 YPA | 120.8 Rating

You always want to end on a positive note, and at the very least Manning did that. Not only did he throw 100% of balls to receivers in stride (On Target), he made two of these throws to Wingo. That gave everyone some potential positives moving forward. If these two can connect, this offense will be a fun watch.

Ultimately it was a very bad day at the office for Manning. His legs produced yardage for the offense in a much needed way when the passing game couldn’t get rolling in the second quarter.

Texas has one more “tune up” game versus Sam Houston State before getting into conference play, ending the non-conference play on a positive note could go a long way for the confidence in this offense.

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