What to make of Baylor?
I’d venture to say this is one of the trickier topics in the Big 12 right now. What exactly do we make of this 4-0 Baylor team which is 2-0 in Big 12 play with a non-conference home date still remaining against future Big 12 opponent (rival?) BYU and their first road trip of the season (at Oklahoma State) next on the docket?
Obviously the Oklahoma State game on the road will tell us a great deal, but the Bears have already vanquished everyone’s favorite Big 12 Championship runner-up Iowa State 31-29. That was a big win for Dave Aranda, only his third win in the Big 12 and the first over a good team (K-State was a worn down nub when the Bears beat them last year).
But the details of the game were pretty murky as Iowa State out-gained them 479 to 282 and dominated a few dimensions of the game.
A win is a win?
At Football Outsiders, Parker Fleming’s review of the stats gave Iowa State a 21.87-18.2 expected win and noted the following special teams disasters for the Cyclones.
- A deflected punt which gave the Bears a midfield possession (in which they scored a touchdown).
- A missed field goal from 47-yards (it happens).
- A 98-yard kick return touchdown by Trestan Ebner
They also had a near-miss when Will McDonald, fourth of that name, sacked Gerry Bohanon inside the Baylor 20-yard line but Grant Miller landed on the ball to maintain possession.
Now as Will Muschamp once said, “stats are for losers.” One of the most common things in football is for a game’s losers to pore over the stats and explain how really, it was only a fluke for team X to win over team Y, which numbers reveal was actually the stronger team.
The accumulation of stats isn’t the goal of a football game, the goal is to score more points than the other team. Win expectancy is just that. Sometimes teams even embrace strategies which may muddy the statistical waters but help secure the win.
Baylor has a hard-fought, home win on their resume over an Iowa State team I’m pretty confident will go at least 5-4 in Big 12 play, which definitely means something. At 2-0 in league play the Bears are about four wins away from having a real chance at making the Big 12 title game if they can find victories from the following schedule:
- at Oklahoma State
- West Virginia
- Texas
- at TCU
- Oklahoma
- at Kansas State
- Texas Tech
If you’re disinclined to make too much of the Iowa State win you might call most of these toss-ups at this point, so the make or break may be whether they go 4-3 or 3-4 and then which tiebreakers they’d own.
What about the film from the game? The matchups and fundamentals of the contest we could potentially project out against the rest of the league?
Monkey-wrenching wide zone
One of my concerns about the 2021 Baylor Bears was their heavy emphasis on wide zone within their offensive system and the possibility of the machine grinding to a halt if a team could stop the play honestly. I noted a similar feature about Sean McVay’s wide zone Rams back when Bill Belichik wrecked them in the Super Bowl.
The same issue is also true of many offensive systems, including RPO spread squads and other spread systems in particular who want to spread you out and then “hit em where they ain’t.” Well, if the defense can win somewhere on the field without overcommitting then the whole thing unravels.
In this case, Baylor had massive issues with Iowa State’s boundary defensive end Zach Petersen. I made a thread on Twitter detailing the considerable problems he presented to Baylor, here are a few highlights.
There are many who like to praise wide zone as a solution for tite fronts and 3-down defenses but this has never made much sense to me and Iowa State really exposed the issues in this game. Baylor didn’t run the ball to the field very much, presumably not wanting to deal with Mike Rose, but their angles running the ball into the boundary were awful.
For one thing, you already have limited space running to the boundary so creating lateral stretches for wide zone can get tricky. Worse, the Cyclones would usually line up Petersen in a 4i-technique (inside eye of the offensive tackle) and have him play the B-gap.
This means the guard would need to reach block him, but he’s coming downhill on the guard from an outside angle and looking to set the edge INSIDE of the tackle rather than outside. Their guards couldn’t handle the angle, even if they could reach him he was too powerful to keep from resetting the line in the backfield, which would further constrict the space running into the boundary.
The whole goal of wide zone is to threaten to outflank the defense and then punish them in the cutbacks when they overextend trying to race you to the edge. So when Petersen set hard edges in the B-gap, it was devastating for the design of the play because the defense couldn’t be over-extended.
Baylor tried a lot of formations, mixed in some option, and ran some quarterback zone for Gerry Bohanon which I expect to be a powerful tool in their arsenal this season. Nothing solved the underlying problem, Petersen’s hard edges in the B-gap killed the spacing for the play and funneled the ballcarriers into traffic where the Cyclones had their big linebackers and typically a safety arriving to clean up.
So, what does this mean against the upcoming slate?
The main issue for Baylor to be worried about is teams abusing their guards with a 4i defensive end to either the field or boundary or perhaps a particularly quick 3-technique. Petersen didn’t care which Baylor guard was across from him, he handled them all.
Baylor fans may say, “well, at least Petersen was probably the best strongside end in the league and we got out of it with a win.”
Maybe, maybe not. The concern I’d have is teams shooting gaps against wide zone to disrupt the play and targeting the guards, neither of whom (Xavier Newman, Grant Miller) I think is particularly great.
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Here’s a look at the schedule again with the challenges included.
- at Oklahoma State. DE Tyler Lacy, 6-foot-4, 295 pounds. Basically another Zach Petersen.
- West Virginia: 3-technique Dante Stills, ask OU about him.
- Texas: Could move Moro Ojomo with his 6-11 wingspan from 3-technique to 4i.
- at TCU: Gary loves to slant gaps opposite the running back to force cutbacks and then fire his LBs at the cutback lanes.
- Oklahoma: Looking iffier than previously assumed but Isaiah Thomas could be an issue.
- at Kansas State: K-State may have some issues here.
- Texas Tech: Terrible at defending outside zone.
That’s not to say Baylor will automatically lose to OSU, WVU, Texas, and TCU because they have potential personnel/schematic solutions to wide zone. Iowa State did as well and still lost, but it’s a looming problem and you won’t win very often if there’s a fundamental breakdown for your offense.
“I mean, Baylor keeps winning…”
That’s the inevitable retort from a Baylor fan or anyone who sees Aranda’s Bears clawing their way back into Big 12 contention.
The Bears are definitely better than a year ago and have a number of things going their way which are going to matter in league play.
On defense, they’re up to the same tricks which were slowly established over the course of the 2020 season. Matt Jones is getting action as the edge linebacker and he can get after the passer, he’s playing multiple positions for them and is probably one of the more underrated defenders in the league. Apu Ika is also a menace at nose tackle, albeit in fits and bursts, and his effectiveness probably becomes more consistent as the weather grows colder.
Perhaps the biggest factor though is Gerry Bohanon, who’s been much better than I expected.
I threw out a comp for him on Twitter the other day and I think it’s sticking, Jalen Hurts. Bohanon is listed at 6-foot-3, 221 pounds and has a similar frame and athleticism to the 6-foot-1, 223 pound Hurts.
Part of what made Hurts so effective in college was the combination of legitimate speed (4.59 40 at the combine), power (watch him on the goal line for OU last year), and durability. He got 200 carries in 2019 and literally carried the Sooners to a Big 12 Championship.
Thus far Bohanon has 24 carries for 105 yards at 4.4 ypc with four touchdowns but it was 10 carries for 36 yards and a score against Iowa State. Take out the two sacks and you have eight carries for 51 yards at 6.4 ypc with a touchdown and a fumble (GIF’d in that thread). I was struck when I noticed Baylor had this play in their pocket:
The center Jacob Gall from Buffalo does a great job here (was fantastic all game and the reason Petersen didn’t completely disembowel their offense) but the left side has their usual issues. If Will Hummel doesn’t stumble, perhaps this is stuffed.
Nevertheless, it’s a great play and Bohanon shows off his quickness and power. It’s mid/B-gap zone, you run at the open B-gap and can then bounce if the end crashes inside or cut back into an A-gap if the linebacker plugs it.
Bohanon is also similar to Jalen Hurts in terms of arm strength. We’ll see how many carries Bohanon can handle in league play and whether his arm strength holds up. Charlie Brewer used to get killed trying to run the ball and still throw it down the field, even the indomitable Sam Ehlinger had issues last season hitting throws down the field consistently after enduring a bone bruise and his normal litany of injuries.
There’s a fair amount of margin here though. Bohanon doesn’t need a long windup or hitch steps to fling the ball down the field and he can hit some difficult throws outside the hash marks which then serve to create space between the hash marks for the run game.
Turnovers are the biggest concern. He fumbled twice against Iowa State and threw a few balls which might have been picked.
Right now I think Baylor is safely ahead of cellar dwellers Texas Tech and Kansas with a good chance to land at least in the middle of the league if not higher. My guess is their ceiling and chances at making the Big 12 title game will be determined by A) whether Bohanon can carry a heavier load in the run game (thinking 10+ carries per game) and B) if he can do so without committing turnovers.
We know from their win over Iowa State Baylor can hang with good teams, whether or not they can continue to find victories should be clearer after we see how Bohanon handles a road environment against another clever defense.
What do you make of Baylor? Discuss for free on the Flyover Football Board.
