What's next for Dillon Mitchell in his sophomore season

The NBA Draft combine is an event designed for data collection. Most attention goes toward the teams looking for every bit of intel they can uncover on pro prospects, but the prospects themselves go through the process to learn what areas of their game The Association thinks needs improvement.

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That held true for Dillon Mitchell, who announced Wednesday night he will return to Texas for his sophomore season in head coach Rodney Terry‘s program.

Mitchell, who arrived at Texas as the No. 4 overall prospect in the 2022 On3 Industry Ranking, started in every game during his freshman campaign but only averaged 17.5 minutes per contest. When the Longhorns entered into the late stages of games in the rough-and-tumble Big 12 and NCAA tournament, Mitchell ceded minutes to other experienced players.

Those factors meant the player with a lottery-level projection out of high school was a maybe for the second round in this year’s draft. Mitchell attended the combine and worked out for a handful of teams, even showing off a three-point shot not seen at all during the 2022-23 campaign in workouts. Mitchell told the San Antonio Express-News he was leaning towards staying in the draft in the middle of the process.

But the data teams collected eventually crafted a message Mitchell could not ignore: there wasn’t a guarantee of a roster spot for him with any franchise.

Mitchell was likely told he needed to work on his offensive game. Even though he was in the starting lineup in all 38 contests last year, offensive opportunities designed for the lengthy leaper were few and far between under both Terry and Chris Beard. That made sense considering the level of experience and offensive acumen on Texas’ roster last year. Mitchell may not have been a top-five offensive player on his own team.

That changes this year. Mitchell comes back to Texas likely with an understanding he’ll have more opportunity to showcase his offensive ability. While Dylan Disu returns and portal additions Kadin Shedrick and Ze’Rik Onyema have joined the roster, Mitchell has the potential to offer a close- and mid-range offensive game that last year was the responsibility of players like Disu, Timmy Allen, and even Christian Bishop. He’ll still have the chance to throw down explosive dunks and convert lobs at the rim, but Mitchell made his decision likely because he wants to show he can do more than those two things

He should have ample opportunity to increase his average number of field goals per game from the 3.1 he set in 2022-23. While more chances may not allow for him to maintain his 64 percent field goal percentage, he should be able to increase is 4.3 points per game average.

Mitchell will also be asked to, at a minimum, maintain his quality of defense. With his likely role, he’ll have to do so for more than 25 minutes per game. That 25-minute threshold was one he eclipsed only three times last year, and only once in conference play. The more quality he can show on both ends of the floor, the more likely he’ll play up to his No. 4 overall ranking.

There is a good example for him to follow from Longhorn teams past. In 2019-2020, Kai Jones averaged 17 minutes per game and scored 3.6 points per contest while mostly acting as a backup for Jericho Sims. During the COVID-19-plaugued offseason in 2020, Jones developed into a key figure who earned an expanded role on the 2020-21 Longhorns. Even with Sims still on the roster, Jones saw his scoring shoot up to 8.8 points per game and his minutes rise to 23 per contest. He improved in almost every statistical category and was eventually picked 19th overall in the 2021 draft.

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Jones and Mitchell are different players, but the blueprint is there for Mitchell to have a similarly strong sophomore season and show signs of development indicating a lofty potential for NBA teams to tap into.

NBA teams told Mitchell what he needed to improve upon during the pre-draft process. The 2022-23 season will be his chance to provide all 32 franchises with data showing he made the needed improvements while manufacturing a few Longhorn wins along the way.