When looking at SEC tiebreakers, the Texas Longhorns need some outside help to make it to Atlanta

Texas joining the Southeastern Conference brought with it numerous benefits for the athletic department, the school, and the city of Austin. As far as football goes, there are a couple of pitfalls when it comes to determining who will play for the conference championship in 2024.

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The SEC is a 16-team league without divisions that sends the top two teams in the standings to the SEC Championship Game. However, many of the contenders avoid playing each other this season. Any SEC team with just one conference loss, for the purposes of this article, is still “in it.”

That means…

• Texas A&M (5-0 SEC)
• Georgia (4-1 SEC)
• LSU (3-1 SEC)
• Tennessee (3-1 SEC)
• Texas (3-1 SEC)

… are the five main contenders for the SEC Championship at this current juncture.

But…

• Texas doesn’t play LSU or Tennessee, lost to Georgia by a score of 30-15, and plays at Texas A&M on November 30
• Tennessee doesn’t play Texas, Texas A&M, or LSU, and plays at Georgia on November 16
• LSU doesn’t play Texas, Tennessee, or Georgia, and lost to Texas A&M by a score of 38-23
• Georgia doesn’t play Texas A&M or LSU, beat Texas 30-15, and plays Tennessee on November 16
• Texas A&M doesn’t play Tennessee or Georgia, beat LSU 38-23, and plays Texas on November 30

A lot going on, but the fact that many of the top contenders avoid each other throws a major loop in the entire tiebreaking process that decides who goes to Atlanta.

And, it means scenarios exist where Texas could go 7-1 in SEC play and STILL not play for the conference title. The merits of avoiding an extra game of wear and tear and hosting a home playoff contest can be debated, but teams and football programs like playing for and winning conference championships. Coaches do too, not only for prestige but also for the monetary bonuses associated with them.

Those scenarios have to go through these tiebreakers, according to the SEC office.

1. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
2. Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams
3. Record against highest (best) placed common Conference opponent in the Conference standings, and proceeding through the Conference standings among the tied teams
4. Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams
5. Capped relative total scoring margin versus all Conference opponents among the tied teams
6. Random draw of the tied teams

Luckily for us, X user mred53 has made some sense of the situation. He did that in the following threads on X, with the first post from each thread below.

There's some super weird side-effects of an odd SEC football tiebreaker policy that came up in an email exchange I had earlier today. This could impact who plays in the SEC championship game. (1/ )

— mred (@mred53) October 28, 2024

The net result of the thread I just posted: in a three-way tie among UGA/A&M/Texas, Texas needs UGA to have a better conf opp win % than A&M, and A&M needs a conf opp win % equal to UGA or better. (1/2)

— mred (@mred53) October 28, 2024

Let’s play out at least one potential scenario. Using data from College Football Insiders, if every team favored to emerge victorious in individual matchups won out, what would the SEC Championship picture look like?

Home teams are on the left, and CFI takes into consideration homefield advantage.

And, again per mred’s data, here are the expected results.

1. Georgia (7-1)
2. Texas A&M (7-1)
3. Texas (7-1)
4. LSU (7-1)
5. Tennessee (6-2)
6. Alabama (6-2)
7. Ole Miss (5-3)
8. Missouri (5-3)
9. South Carolina (4-4)
10. Arkansas (3-5)
11. Vanderbilt (3-5)
12. Florida (2-6)
13. Oklahoma (1-7)
14. Auburn (1-7)
15. Kentucky (1-7)
16. Mississippi State (0-8)

Lot to unpack there. Georgia vs. Texas A&M for their second meeting ever as members of the same conference? Four 7-1 teams? Texas not making it even after defeating Texas A&M? Oklahoma, Auburn, and Kentucky at 1-7 in conference play?

Those are all interesting pieces to the puzzle, but it also makes it clear that if the rest of SEC play follows College Football Insiders’ chalk, then the Longhorns will be awaiting an at-large bid from the College Football Playoff selection committee.

That may not be the worst thing, as Paul Wadlington and Ian Boyd explained on Thursday. However, what is clear is that the Longhorns need some help in the form of other conference contenders losing in order for back-to-back conference championships to be a reality.

While on bye, the Longhorns can sit at home and hope that takes place.

Here’s who plays each other around the league this weekend.

This Week in the SEC: Week 9
No. 19 Ole Miss (6-2, 2-2 SEC) at Arkansas (5-3, 3-2 SEC)

Location: Fayetteville, Ark. • Reynolds Razorback Stadium
Time: 11 a.m. CT
TV Network: ESPN
Betting line: Ole Miss -6.5

Vanderbilt (5-3, 2-2 SEC) at Auburn (3-5, 1-4 SEC)

Location: Auburn, Ala. • Jordan-Hare Stadium
Time: 11:45 a.m. CT 
TV Network: SEC Network 
Betting line: Auburn -7.5

Maine (4-4) at Oklahoma (4-4, 1-4 SEC)

Location: Norman, Okla. • Oklahoma Memorial Stadium
Time: 1:30 p.m. CT
TV Network: SEC+/ESPN+
Betting line: Oklahoma -34.5

Florida (4-3, 2-2 SEC) vs. No. 2 Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC)

Location: Jacksonville, Fla. • EverBank Stadium
Time: 2:30 p.m. CT
TV Network: ABC
Betting line: Georgia -16.5

UMass (2-6) at Mississippi State (1-7, 0-5 SEC)

Location: Starkville, Miss. • Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field
Time: 3:15 p.m. CT
TV Network: SEC Network
Betting line: Mississippi State -17.5

No. 10 Texas A&M (7-1, 5-0 SEC) at South Carolina (4-3, 2-3 SEC)

Location: Columbia, S.C. • Williams-Brice Stadium
Time: 6:30 p.m. CT
TV Network: ABC
Betting line: Texas A&M -2.5

Kentucky (3-5, 1-5 SEC) at No. 7 Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC)

Location: Knoxville, Tenn. • Neyland Stadium
Time: 6:45 p.m. CT
TV Network: SEC Network
Betting line: Tennessee -16.5

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On Bye

• Alabama (6-2, 3-2 SEC)
• LSU (6-2, 3-1 SEC)
• Missouri (6-2, 2-2 SEC)
• Texas (7-1, 3-1 SEC)