Which college football coaches have the hottest seats?

Hope springs eternal in mid-June. But come November, there will be a number of coaches either out of a job or on the brink of being out of a job.

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2025 is an interesting time in terms of the coaching hot seat conversation. So many schools that would have previously pulled the plug on a struggling coach have instead decided to invest that money into the roster, giving programs an opportunity to show progress has been made. In an era where players are about to be paid earnestly, many athletic departments have dedicated $10-15 million to a roster instead of $20 million+ to a buyout, even if that buyout is to be paid over time.

But patience only lasts so long, and the NIL money well does dry up eventually. Who from the Power Conference ranks truly finds themselves on a seat warm enough to where a season under expectations could result in a few different people updating resumes?

SEC

1 Mark Stoops, Kentucky

What was the last good thing you heard about Kentucky football? They just lost crucial assistant Vince Marrow to in-state rival Louisville, they went 4-8 and 1-7 in SEC play in 2024, and the program looks like it is still reeling from Stoops’ late 2023 attempt to take the Texas A&M job. The future of the offense relies on Cutter Boley or Zach Calzada, and if they want to end the Stoops era the buyout is likely around $40 million.

Maybe the Big Blue Brass tries to find an exit for Stoops similar to how they found a stop for John Calipari at Arkansas. Or maybe they have the money to make things happen with Stoops and Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall. Either way, the Wildcats aren’t looking up anytime soon after their 10-3 2021 season, especially with the way the roster looks and the overall feeling around the program being a gloomy one. Blue, even.

2 Sam Pittman, Arkansas

With Arkansas and Pittman, it’s been a multi-year game of “will they or won’t they” regarding a buyout that has to do with his overall record. If his record since the start of the 2021 season remains over .500, his buyout is 75% of his contract. If it dips? Well, then it’s 50%.

Pittman is currently 27-24 since the start of the 2021 season, and did a decent job last year of getting the Hogs to bowl eligibility and a Liberty Bowl title. It also seems like the Bobby Petrino Usurper trope has worn off.

Here’s Arkansas’s first five games.

• Alabama A&M
• Arkansas State in Little Rock
• At Ole Miss
• At Memphis
• Notre Dame

A loss to Alabama A&M doesn’t seem feasible. A loss to the Red Wolves would ratchet up the intensity, especially with a hard game in Oxford, a game against a Group of Five Playoff contender in Memphis, and then the national title contender in the Fighting Irish. A 2-3 start is not out of the realm of possibility. And then?

• Open week
• at Tennessee
• Auburn
• Mississippi State
• Open week
• at LSU
• at Texas
• Missouri

Things could get tenuous, and then he’d only have two years remaining on his contract after the end of this season. Not great for recruiting.

Arkansas could become a very interesting week-to-week program to follow to see when the Razorbacks decide to pay the multimillion-dollar buyout.

3 Billy Napier, Florida

Ever since Napier got a not-so-dreaded vote of confidence entering the Gators’ loss to Texas (and since DJ Lagway returned to the field after that game), things have been looking up. Florida ended the season with wins over LSU, Ole Miss, and Florida State plus a bowl win over a quality Tulane team. Lagway shined, tossing six touchdowns across those final four games.

Florida finished with the No. 10 recruiting class and made a number of key retentions, with Lagway being the sun, moon, and stars of those efforts. Though the schedule is difficult and there are some lingering concerns about Lagway’s health, there’s a lot of optimism in Gainesville for the Gators this year.

But what if it all falls flat?

Napier entered last season with a hot seat that had a splash of cold water thrown on it by athletic director Scott Stricklin. But while that may have cooled the seat, it’s not yet known if that extinguished the flame. If Lagway’s health problems carry over into what’s another difficult schedule, or if Napier falters, the Gators may see it necessary to spend around the $20 million needed to make a change.

4 Brent Venables, Oklahoma

Around $40 million is a LOT of money. But Oklahoma maintains lofty standards, and those standards don’t often smile on two under .500 seasons in a head coach’s tenure. Just ask John Blake.

Venables has a significant amount of goodwill, money, and one of the better rosters he’s had in his Norman tenure at his disposal entering the 2025 season. Between new offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, quarterback John Mateer, a healthier receiving corps, and continued quality defensive recruiting, Oklahoma has a team that looks capable of doing more than just straddling bowl eligibility in the 2025 season.

Yet many of the same things that were said about Napier apply to Venables.

So much depends on the quarterback, who is making a step up in competition from Washington State to Oklahoma. So much also depends on the defense maintaining its typical Venables quality, which was unquestionably a challenge last year because of the moribund offense.

There are plenty of scenarios where Venables gets another year. What does not making it to 2026 look like? Assuming health, it’s lack of offensive effectiveness even with a new coordinator, lack of defensive effectiveness due to an overtaxed unit, and some typical cracks seen when head coaches take on play calling out of desperation as opposed to desire.

Like Napier, no one in charge in Norman wants to see Venables fail. While another under .500 season doesn’t seem likely, the Sooners still face difficult tests this season in the form of Michigan, Ole Miss, and LSU at home plus South Carolina, Tennessee, and Alabama on the road. Of course, the Red River Shootout looms in mid-October.

An over .500 record would be progress. Would that be enough for a program that made it to the four-team College Football Playoff four times?

5 Hugh Freeze, Auburn

Miss me with mention of Brian Kelly or Kalen DeBoer. LSU is not going to have a year bad enough to necessitate a $50 million+ buyout, and Alabama is similar. That’s even if both miss the Playoffs. The buyouts are big for a reason.

I think there’s an understanding around Starkville, Miss. that Jeff Lebby walked into a terrible situation. After Mike Leach passed away, Zach Arnett took over but also tried to make major schematic changes on both sides of the ball. He also had a deal that wasn’t difficult to get out of, and that’s exactly what State elected to do. The Bulldogs need some consistency, and unless they go 0-fer in 2025, they’re going to give Lebby the chance to be consistent.

So, who’s next? Kirby Smart, Steve Sarkisian, DeBoer, Kelly, Lane Kiffin, Eliah Drinkwitz, Josh Heupel, Mike Elko, Shane Beamer, and Clark Lea are all on solid footing. That leaves just one man.

Hugh Freeze.

Under Freeze, Auburn has back-to-back under .500 seasons following back-to-back under .500 seasons from Bryan Harsin. Auburn is a volatile program, so it’s almost understood if the Tigers go 14-0, 8-5, 3-9, and 12-2 over a four-year span like they did from 2010-2013.

But being consistently bad? Especially with what people on the Plains are paying for some of the top prospects in the portal and the southeast? Progress, real progress, has to be made.

That could look like an 8-4 regular season with bright spots from quarterback Jackson Arnold and maybe a win over a rival like Alabama or Georgia. But another season hovering around six wins would be six-straight of that variety. That’s not the type of consistency Auburn aspires to nor achieves. It might get the Tigers searching again.

Elsewhere

Big 12

• Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati
• Brent Brennan, Arizona
• Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State

Over .500 or bust for Satterfield. Brennan is in a tough spot as Jedd Fisch took most of the good Wildcat players with him to Washington, but a bottoming out without Tetairoa McMillan is on the table.

The marriage may be ending for Gundy, whose contract does not protect him as much as it used to. Despite a conference title appearance in 2023, an 0-9 Big 12 record in 2024 ate up that goodwill. T. Boone Pickens isn’t around anymore, either.

Joey McGuire isn’t on this list… yet.

Big 10

• Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

A 12-13 regular season record after making the most of his time at Cincinnati doesn’t have things looking up for Fickell entering his third full season. He had to replace his offensive coordinator with journeyman play caller Jeff Grimes. The talent isn’t impressive.

Maryland’s Mike Locksley could have made this list, but it’s hard to tell how much the Terps care about football. Plus, he made and won three bowls from 2021 to 2023 before missing one last year. If they care, then his seat may warm up.

It’s too early for Michigan’s Sherrone Moore to be on this list.

ACC

• Mike Norvell, Florida State
• Justin Wilcox, Cal
• Brent Pry, Virginia Tech
• Tony Elliott, Virginia

Norvell went from 13 wins to two, which means he has three under .500 years at Florida State and two double-digit win seasons in his Seminole tenure. That’s wild, and he’s banking on Gus Malzahn to help him call a different looking offense this year after the failed DJ Uiagalelei experiment. Does FSU have $50 million or more to buy him out?

Wilcox deserves a lot of credit for making it this far, but he may be caught in between some booster drama featuring new general manager Ron Rivera and assistant coaches Harsin and Nick Rolovich that would require a bowl win to stave off the torches and pitchforks.

Pry simply needs to show some progress with an experienced quarterback in Kyron Drones after a 13-13 mark over the last two years.

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Elliott has three under .500 years.