Who's in? Predicting the 12-team College Football Playoff field

This season is one filled with many firsts for college football. It’s the first year where teams like the Texas Longhorns will play as part of a new conference after the most recent round of realignment.

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It’s also the first year for the 12-team College Football Playoff. The next step in a three-decade search for the right way to crown a national champion, the 12-team CFP will feature the four Power Conference champions, the highest ranked Group of Five program, and seven other at-large teams from around the country.

The Longhorns believe they’re not just a contender for a spot in the CFP, but also a candidate to be playing for it all on January 20 in the national championship game.

As part of the preseason leadup to kickoff, here’s my attempt at predicting the 12-team Playoff field.

Conference Champions

1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Miami
4. Kansas State

Group of Five: Liberty

The Buckeyes didn’t take too kindly to Michigan winning the national championship. Thanks to NIL efforts and good, old-fashioned spite, Ohio State created one of the more talented rosters in the nation and put veteran quarterback Will Howard at the helm of a Ryan Day/Chip Kelly offense. Three games will define the Buckeyes’ season: at Oregon on October 12, vs. Michigan on November 30, and the Big 10 Championship. This is a team with the type of talent, schemes, and depth to do great things in a year Day desperately needs great things.

Much has been made about who Florida plays to end the year. Georgia doesn’t go through the same type of gauntlet, and Georgia can’t play itself, but the Dawgs have a number of tough games on the schedule they are equipped to handle. Starting the year against Clemson, playing at Alabama, Texas, and Ole Miss, and dealing with Auburn and Tennessee is no easy slate. Georgia is talented and has shown no signs of on-field setbacks. They may not go undefeated but they’ll accomplish what they need to do in order to win the SEC.

Miami is talented enough to overcome some of the in-game idiocy Mario Cristobal has put on display in recent years. The Hurricanes play one team that starts the season ranked. They should be able to traverse the campaign, earn a spot in the ACC Championship, and overcome either Clemson or Florida State for a second time to get to the Playoff.

The Big 12 comes down to Kansas, Kansas State, and Utah this season, with Oklahoma State vying to enter the conversation. Kansas State and Utah don’t play each other this year… until a possible Big 12 Championship matchup. The Ute offense is great when Cam Rising is on the field. Will Rising remain on the field? Avery Johnson and Chris Klieman‘s ‘Cats reach the Big 12 mountaintop yet again and lock up the No. 4 seed.

Liberty rolls through Conference USA and overcomes upstart efforts from Boise State, Appalachian State, and whoever comes from the American Athletic Conference. They’ll have to be undefeated to do it, but they’ll do it.

The rest of the field

5. Oregon
6. Texas
7. Alabama
8. Notre Dame
9. Penn State
10. Ole Miss
11. Florida State

First teams out: Michigan, Utah, Missouri, Iowa

Oregon suffers the same fate as it did last year and loses to the champion of its conference twice, but the 12-team Playoff means they aren’t knocked out of championship contention.

The Longhorns lose to Georgia in the SEC championship for possibly their third loss of the year (10-2 regular season campaign), but the SEC runner up is going to get a home playoff game. Because Oregon has a better record, they get the nod to face the Flames.

Alabama is still a great team with a great coach and great players and go through the 2024 season like nothing ever changed, but they find themselves with several other teams on the pedestal just below Georgia.

The Irish convert the difficult opportunities on their schedule and make all layups as Marcus Freeman continues his ascent as one of the sport’s rising coaching stars. This means they beat Texas A&M in College Station.

Between Drew Allar and Andy Kotelnicki running the offense and Tom Allen making good use of talented players on defense, the Nittany Lions get over the hump (mostly because they avoid a game against Michigan).

Ole Miss makes it in a year where the Rebels are going all in.

Florida State… is… in! After the Seminoles were controversially left out after a 13-0 campaign, they make the 12-team field as the last at-large bid and make the ACC a two-bid league. Big 12 runner up Utah, Michigan, Missouri, Tennessee, and Iowa all are left yearning for more.

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Who’s your 12?