Why Texas Baseball should be the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament

With Texas’ 9-1 win over Oklahoma this Saturday, the Longhorns finished their first season in the SEC with 22 conference wins, one of the best entrances into a conference the sport has seen.

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The win secured Texas its eighth series victory, the most in the conference, and likely clinched one of the most elusive feats a team can accomplish in the regular season: locking up the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament.

For those not familiar with college baseball, the tournament works similarly to March Madness but has a few distinct differences. There is still a field of 64 teams competing for the national championship, with programs from over 30 different Division I conferences vying for a spot.

But instead of playing a series of single-elimination games, teams are split into regional fields, with the top 16 seeds hosting double-elimination tournaments at their home ballparks. The winners of these regionals then advance to a super regional, where the 16 teams face off in a best-of-three series for a chance to play in Omaha, the host site of the Men’s College World Series.

The most important goal for any team, but especially for the top SEC competitors, is to be a top-eight seed. Why? Because it not only guarantees hosting a regional tournament but also the opportunity to play a series at home in the super regional. On3’s Jonathan Wagner currently projects six SEC teams in the top eight seeds, with a familiar Longhorn logo right at the top.

Texas is the current favorite to be the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament, a true advantage in seeding and matchups. Not only will Texas be able to host a regional (and a super if they advance), but their opponents will also be much more manageable than those of other top-eight teams. Wagner’s list has No. 8 Auburn hosting a red-hot UTSA team and Miami, a blue blood of the sport. Even if they were to win that regional, they would have to host a team like Oregon State or Clemson, two opponents no one wants to face before Omaha.

Conversely, Texas is projected to face Louisville, a team that went 15-15 in ACC play, and Xavier, a team that is 5-12 in Quad 1 games. If they advanced to the super regionals, they would host either a top team from a T2 conference (B10 or B12) or something like the eighth-best SEC team. Much more manageable.

The big question is: Are the Longhorns deserving of the No. 1 seed?

Above is a chart showing Wagner’s top six projected seeds, with Oregon and Auburn barely missing the list. Just from a quick scan, it’s easy to see why Texas is the top seed in this tournament. Outside of a poor showing in the last three SEC series—a sweep from Arkansas, a loss to Florida, and dropping a game to Oklahoma—Texas’ stats are impeccable.

They rank in the top five in RPI, boast an elite record versus Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams, and have just 11 losses, four of which came at the hands of teams on this list. Still, Texas won eight of its 12 games against top-eight teams, including Arkansas, Georgia, LSU, and Auburn.

Another important note is that, similar to college football, seeding almost always favors the winner of one of the top two conferences. The SEC is a power in both sports, but the ACC is the “B10 of college baseball.” Texas won the SEC outright on Thursday and led second-place Arkansas by two games. On the ACC side of things, however, Georgia Tech is actually the regular season winner. Their RPI ranks in the 20s, making them an unlikely candidate to be a top-eight seed unless they make a tremendous run in the ACC tournament.

Vanderbilt has struggled against Quad 1 teams, though they have arguably played the nation’s toughest schedule. UNC didn’t win the ACC and dropped a few too many games that you’d expect a top seed to win. Arkansas’ resume is strong, but no specific stat really jumps off the sheet. Georgia and LSU are both strong teams, but both would need an SEC tournament championship to jump to a top spot.

Texas is comfortably at the top of the SEC, has the best resume against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams, and has just 11 total losses on the season. That resume is too solid to dispute, even if Texas loses its first game in the SEC tournament.

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IT mentioned after the A&M sweep that Texas would really only need to win one more series to lock up the SEC and the national seed. It’s been a troublesome 10 games since, but they did exactly what they needed to at the end of the day. The team’s body of work was so strong that even losing six of their final 10 games wasn’t enough to drop them out of the top spot. Texas will be hosting playoff baseball in the first year of the Jim Schlossnagle era, and the path to Omaha will be favorable for the SEC’s champion.