With seven games to go, Texas is currently positioned on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble

Andy Katz, a longtime college basketball expert who now is a contributor for the NCAA itself, released his projected field of 68 on Tuesday as March Madness gets closer and closer. Katz projected the Texas Longhorns to be a No. 8 seed in the Midwest region with a first round matchup against Indiana State. The projected No. 1-seed in the Midwest was Purdue.

[Join Inside Texas and get ONE MONTH of Longhorn intel for just $1!]

🔮 NEW BRACKET PREDICTION 🔮@TheAndyKatz gives an updated bracket, as we continue to get closer to March 👀 pic.twitter.com/XA1chNFMWM

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) February 13, 2024

Texas (16-8, 5-6 Big 12) has gone from in the field, to last four in, to first four out, and back to in the field over the course of the past few weeks. Much of that is due to a 3-3 stretch against six ranked teams that provided three critical Quadrant 1 wins as part of the NCAA Evaluation Tool, or NET, formula.

More info on NET can be found here. Quadrant 1 games are bountiful in the Big 12, where 11 of 14 teams are in the top 75 of the rankings. Texas, off during the midweek this week, is No. 34 in NET ahead of Tuesday’s slate of games. That’s good for eighth-best in the Big 12.

The Longhorns’ 4-6 record in 10 Quadrant 1 games, plus a 1-1 record in Quadrant 2 games, a 4-1 mark in Quadrant 3 games, and a perfect 7-0 record in Quadrant 4 games, has them on the right side of the bubble with seven games left on the schedule.

Those games will be challenging. Texas plays at Houston, hosts Kansas State, goes to Kansas and then Texas Tech, hosts Oklahoma State, visits Baylor, then welcomes Oklahoma for one final Big 12 matchup between the two schools. Of Texas’ seven remaining games, four are Quadrant 1 contests using current rankings. Then, the conference tournament, likely another opportunity to stack Quadrant 1 wins, begins March 12.

Texas isn’t a Big 12 regular season title contender, but it is looking to make a fourth-straight March Madness appearance, a 10th appearance in the tournament since the end of the 2010 season, and the 38th overall selection into the tournament field in program history.

BracketMatrix.com’s aggregation of different outlets’ projected fields (updated February 12) has Texas in the tournament on all 94 assembled prognostications. Texas’ average seed is 8.44, safe from a potential 11-seed that would send the Longhorns to the First Four in Dayton, Ohio.

Much can change around the league in seven days, let alone seven games. A win over the Cougars in Houston, something no team has managed to pull of in the Fertitta Center this season, would be a huge boost to the Longhorns’ resume. So too would wins in Lawrence, Kan., Waco, or Lubbock.

Texas is safely on the right side of the bubble right now, but next week’s update could tell the same story or a different one altogether.

[Subscribe to the brand new Inside Texas YouTube channel!]

Big 12 Standings

• Houston (21-3, 8-3)
• Iowa State (18-5, 7-3)
• Texas Tech (18-6, 7-4)
• Baylor (17-6, 6-4)
• Kansas (19-6, 7-5)
• TCU (17-7, 6-5)
• Oklahoma (18-6, 6-5)
• BYU (17-6, 5-5)
• Texas (16-8, 5-6)
• Kansas State (15-9, 5-6)
• Cincinnati (15-8, 4-6)
• UCF (13-9, 4-6)
• West Virginia (8-16, 3-8)
• Oklahoma State (10-14, 2-9)

The Big 12 in NET

• No. 1 Houston
• No. 8 BYU
• No. 9 Iowa State
• No. 12 Baylor
• No. 17 Kansas
• No. 26 Texas Tech
• No. 31 Oklahoma
• No. 34 Texas
• No. 35 Cincinnati
• No. 42 TCU
• No. 67 UCF
• No. 77 Kansas State
• No.137 Oklahoma State
• No. 154 West Virginia

Texas’ NET resume

Quad 1 wins (4): at Cincinnati, Baylor, at Oklahoma, at TCU
Quad 1 losses (6): vs. UConn, at Marquette, Texas Tech, at BYU, Houston, Iowa State

Quad 2 wins (1): vs. LSU
Quad 2 losses (1): UCF

Quad 3 wins (4): vs. Louisville, UNC-Greensboro, UT-Arlington, West Virginia
Quad 3 losses (1): at West Virginia

Quad 4 wins (7): UIW, Delaware State, Rice, Wyoming, Texas State, Houston Christian, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Quad 4 losses (0): N/A

• Texas Tech jumped into the top 30 with its win over Kansas, making that loss a Quadrant 1 game for Texas.
• LSU is ranked No. 96 in NET. If the Tigers were to drop out of the top 100, this would become a Quadrant 3 game for Texas.
• UT-Arlington is just inside the top 160, making that a Quadrant 3 win for the Longhorns.
• Wyoming is currently ranked No. 161 in NET, making Texas’ win over the Cowboys a Quadrant 4 game. Any home matchup against a team ranked between No. 76 and No. 160 in NET is a Quadrant 3 game.