Musings from Arledge: Comparing the 2023 and 2005 USC Trojans

It’s almost time. Fall camp starts next week, and we’ll soon see version 2 of Lincoln Riley’s USC Trojans.

And maybe I’m crazy. Maybe the euphoria of losing Clay is still with me, still making me see things as more positive then they are. And, granted, the season hasn’t started; everybody is positive now. There are probably even a few UCLA fans who think they might win the Rose Bowl this year, for the first time in 40 years. That crazy optimism of the offseason turns everybody almost as delusional as Oregon fans. So maybe I’m just crazy … but with all the talk of this USC offense, I’ve been thinking about how this year’s version is likely to compare with the greatest offense in recent USC history: the 2005 team. And I actually think they match up okay.

Now I understand that USC offense was one of the greatest to ever hit a college football field. They finished second in the nation in points per game (49.1), first in total offense (579.8), and first in yards per play (7.5). Any offense compared to that unit is likely to come up short. Still, I think it’s an interesting comparison. 

Quarterback

Let’s start with the most important position on the field: quarterback. Matt Leinart has one of the great resumes in college football history. He was a Heisman winner, a two-time Heisman finalist, he won two national titles, finished as a national title runner-up where he lost to another all-time great team in maybe the greatest game ever played and where he threw for 365 yards in the loss. At one point, Matt had won 34 straight games, one of the great streaks in history. In light of all that, it’s crazy to say it, but I’ll say it anyway: the 2023 team has the edge at quarterback.

I love Matt Leinart. He was an amazing player, and he will always be revered as a Trojan legend. But Caleb Williams adds another dimension. You had to block for Matt Leinart. It’s not clear that you have to block all that much for Caleb Williams. He makes unblocked rushers look silly. His ability to run keeps rushers honest and makes backside edge players respect his threat on running plays, which is the equivalent of having an extra blocker on the field. And he’s an unbelievable passer, with the best arm talent of any USC quarterback not named Carson Palmer. He set all of the USC single-season records last year for a reason. He’s the best quarterback in USC history.

Quarterback: Edge to 2023

Running Back

At running back, the 2023 team is deep and talented. And the comparison isn’t close. Reggie Bush and LenDale White—Thunder and Lightning—were one of the greatest tandems in college football history. Reggie was a generational talent who could score from anywhere. White was a bruiser with fantastic feet and surprising speed. Nobody will compare favorably to that pair. The 2023 squad should be good. Austin Jones is a good player—steady, tough. He’s not Reggie, and he’s not LenDale. MarShawn Lloyd has the talent to be a star. He also has about 800 yards rushing in his college career. Reggie had about 500 yards in only five quarters against Fresno State and UCLA. The other guys are unproven, young, or both. This one ain’t close. 

Running Back: Big Edge to 2005

Wide Receiver

Receiver is tough. Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett were excellent players; at this point, I’d rank both of them above anybody on USC’s 2023 roster. But the depth and talent on the 2023 roster is considerable. Dorian Singer is already a proven, elite player. Mario Williams, Brenden Rice, and Tahj Washington are not far behind. MJ III impresses every time USC gets him the ball. Kyron Hudson can play. Raleek Brown will create mismatches from the slot. And the most talented players at the receiver group—Zach Branch and Duce Robinson—have rare talent; I’m talking top-10 pick talent, and far either more talent than Smith or Jarrett, even if they lack experience right now. If I had to pick only two guys, I’d take the 2005 guys. But when I know I’ll need four or sometimes five receivers on the field, I’m going with 2023.

Receiver: Edge to 2023

Tight End

Tight end is easy. USC hasn’t done anything at tight end in years. I just saw a group picture of the USC tight ends on a milk bottle. The 2005 squad had Dominique Byrd and a young Fred Davis. Big edge to 2005, but I’m just not convinced this position group is as critical as some of the others. 

Tight End: Big Edge to 2005

Offensive Line

I like both offensive line groups. The 2023 team has size, experience, and talent. Justin Dedich, Jonah Monheim, and Jarrett Kingston are all capable of being named first-team all-conference. Michael Tarquin and Emmanuel Pregnon are big, physical, and talented. Mason Murphy, Gino Quinones, and Elijah Paige should provide quality depth. This is a very good group.

But the 2005 unit is tough to beat. Sam Baker was a first-round pick (but with an injury-marred NFL career). Winston Justice was a second-round pick. Deuce Lutui was a second-round pick. All three started in the NFL for multiple seasons. Ryan Kalil was one of the greatest centers in modern history. He was a five-time Pro Bowler with a shot at the Hall of Fame. Fred Matua, the last starter, was a seventh-round pick who never played in an NFL game but was a very good college player. This year’s group will need to do a lot to surpass the 2005 guys.

Offensive Line: Edge to 2005 

Coaching

I would be remiss if I didn’t talk about the critical factor of coaching. In 2005, USC’s offense was run by a young Lane Kiffin and a young Steve Sarkisian. Now Kiffin and Sark have had their successes as offensive coordinators and even, to a lesser degree, as head coaches. But Lincoln Riley will oversee the 2023 offense. Even today, I would take Lincoln Riley over both Sark and Kiff as an offensive coach, and the gap between today’s Lincoln Riley and Kiff and Sark with 18 years’ less experience is big.

Coaching: Big Edge to 2023

Offense Overall

Am I willing to say that the 2023 offense will match the 2005 unit? No, not yet. But here’s the thing: it’s surprisingly close. This 2023 group is full of talent, is led by one of the great college quarterbacks to ever live, and is designed and overseen by one of the great offensive coaches in the modern era. If this group stays healthy, it will be the premier offense in college football and one of the best units of the last 25 years. They’re that good. And if Zach Branch and Duce Robinson very quickly become the playmakers they are destined to be, who knows what the ceiling is.

Offense Overall: Edge to 2005—but if things break the right way….

This means, of course, that we can’t end the comparison now. What about the defenses? Is this 2023 team capable of playing at the same level as a team as that 2005 unit?

First, I don’t know. Probably not. But it might, especially because that 2005 team was not great defensively. They finished 35^th in scoring defense (22.8), 48^th in total defense (360.9), and 53^rd in yards per play (5.2). Those were not typical Pete Carroll numbers. And while the 2005 defense had amazing talent when you just read the names off the roster, most of the household names were young and not yet ready to dominate. Rey Maualuga, Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews, Kevin Ellison, Cary Harris, and Kevin Thomas were freshmen. Sed Ellis, Lawrence Jackson, Keith Rivers, and Terrell Thomas were only sophomores.  

The 2005 defense was not great for Pete’s tenure. They were, however, dramatically better than what USC did in 2022, which really must go down as one of the greatest defensive failures in USC history. It’s not just that the numbers were terrible. It’s that the terrible defensive performance spoiled what should have been a college football playoff team with a legitimate shot at a national title had the defense been even reasonably competent. 

Can this year’s squad be as good as the 2005 squad? Sure, maybe better. The team should be dramatically improved based on talent alone, and the front seven has undergone a huge transformation. USC has size, experience, and young talent up front. Linebacker has gone from a mess for much of the last five years or so to a strength. There is no excuse for being anything other than competent and maybe better than competent. 

The biggest question mark at this point is coaching. The 2005 defense had Pete Carroll. The 2023 defense has Alex Grinch, who has not yet shown himself to occupy the same universe as Pete Carroll. Maybe he will. I hope so. It would be a crime to waste an offense that can legitimately be compared favorably to the legendary 2005 group.

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Don’t look now, but Congress may just breathe new life into the NCAA. 

Various NIL-legislation proposals have been kicking around Congress for a few years now, and none of them have gone anywhere. This one might not go anywhere either, but a new bipartisan bill has been circulated that may just have a chance. 

There are some good things about the proposal. It would set a national NIL policy and get rid of the hodge-podge of state laws on the subject. In the process, it would end the pay-for-play scams that so dominate the recruiting landscape now. (Sorry, Oregon! First no Big 10 and now, possibly, no pay-for-play? Tough time to be a Duck.)

The bill also establishes a medical trust fund for sports-related injuries—a good thing. It’s gross that universities make hundreds of millions of dollars from athletics and athletes who helped generate that revenue are stuck with long-term health problems and no help from the schools. 

It also allows athletes to enter the draft and, so long as they return to school within 7 days and comply with certain other conditions, they can retain their eligibility. This could be a challenge for coaches, as it may encourage more players to test their draft status early. But it’s overall a good thing, because too often in the past players received bad advice about their draft status, left school early, and never made an NFL roster.  

The proposed bill would also guarantee scholarships for athletes as long as they remain in good academic standing. USC and others have already moved to guaranteed four-year scholarships. This bill would make that universal. 

Schools would also have to be transparent about their athletic budgets and expenditures. Many state schools already have such requirements; private schools, largely, do not. And schools would have to provide information about the average value and total number of endorsement deals for their athletes. Such transparency is a good thing.

The bill would also create a new NIL governing body that can create rules and oversight for NIL, and that body would have subpoena power to enforce those rules. 

My fundamental problem, however, and I alluded to this earlier, is that the bill gives the NCAA a lifeline by giving the NCAA authority to create and enforce NIL rules. This is unacceptable.

I’m not going into a full tirade about the NCAA’s corruption, incompetence, and greed. I’ve done that here before. But let’s just say the NCAA has been a disastrous enforcement body over the years. And an incompetent administrative body. When Covid hit, the NCAA had no answer. It sat around waiting for somebody to do something, or maybe they were busy counting all of the money they make from March Madness and forgot that they’re actually expected to, you know, help administer college athletics. On top of this, it makes no sense to have a single organization oversee major college football and the smaller divisions, and it makes no sense to have the same body oversee football and all the minor sports.  The needs and interests are just too diverse. Separate governing bodies make far more sense.

Again, I like some of what the proposed bill does. But we were just about to get rid of the NCAA, probably for a smaller, more nimble governing body put together by the major football universities. Maybe in the process, we could have cleaned out the NCAA mob bosses and their corruption. Now Congress may be on the verge of breathing life into the NCAA zombie and sticking us with those clowns for the long term. As usual, even when Congress has the right idea, it screws everything up. In the next draft of the bill, I assume they’ll name Larry Scott as NIL Czar for Life.

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