Musings from Arledge: Key matchups in USC vs LSU

It’s finally time to see what a post-Caleb, post-Grinch USC football team can do—and we get to see it against a big-time opponent on a national stage. Lincoln Riley may have wanted an easier opponent to start the season, but this is a great matchup, and I’m as excited for an opener as I’ve been in some years.

The line has been falling—Vegas now has LSU as a 4.5-point favorite—and ESPN’s FPI system has an LSU victory as 55% likely. So the college football world expects this game to be close. And rightfully so. Both teams are replacing star quarterbacks and bringing revamped defensive systems, which means both teams have uncertainty on both sides of the ball.  

In analyzing the game, we really should start with this: nobody knows what’s going to happen. Opening games are notoriously unpredictable. Both teams will be relying on new guys and new defensive systems. And it is impossible to simulate in practice what you’re going to see and feel inside that stadium. The excitement and intensity will be different than what you feel in practice. And being too pumped up often produces mental errors. 

Also, you just can’t simulate the other team’s first unit. USC and LSU will run their systems far better than your scout team did. And you can’t really prepare for a Harold Perkins or Bear Alexander or Zachariah Branch. Scout team guys can’t duplicate what those guys do. Practically speaking, everybody will be seeing the other team’s offensive and defensive systems for the first time, and they’ll be doing so under conditions of maximum excitement and stress. 

This is a recipe for huge mistakes, which are common in opening games. Turnovers and mistakes usually decide games between teams that are evenly matched, and there’s no reason to think USC-LSU will be an exception to that.

The second thing to keep in mind is that both teams will have lots of athletes, even in places where they are unproven. USC fans cannot assume that LSU won’t be good at position groups where they lack proven production. Think about it this way: many LSU fans have probably never heard of Ja’Kobi Lane. But it would be a giant mistake for Tiger fans to think that their secondary has nothing to worry about from this guy who only had seven catches last year. We should avoid making the same mistake. It’s LSU; they’re going to have big, fast, athletic guys just about everywhere. Just because some of these guys haven’t done anything yet doesn’t mean they won’t be really good.

So I wade into the key matchups with some trepidation. The coaches don’t even know how their players will react on this stage. Still, I think there are some key matchups that USC must win if they’re going to be successful.

1. USC interior O line versus LSU interior D line

USC must be able to run the ball against LSU. Miller Moss is talented, and he knows the offense. He is not a magician like Caleb Williams was. And that means you cannot expect him to bail out offensive linemen who miss blocks. Harold Perkins can get after the quarterback. LSU has other big athletes who were highly recruited who can probably get to the quarterback. And new LSU defensive coordinator Blake Baker plays a very aggressive system that does a good job pressuring quarterbacks. USC cannot afford to play behind the sticks; if Miller Moss is in 3^rd and 8 all night, the Trojans are in trouble. 

USC has to run the ball to set up the play-action and RPO games. And USC should have some success doing so. USC fans have been focused on what they believed was a questionable interior defensive line for much of the offseason. But I think the Trojans are better on the inside of the defensive line than LSU is. True, LSU has some guys inside that may be better than we’re expecting. But they look questionable. Jacobian Guillory is a good player; I don’t think he’s Bear Alexander. They’ll likely be starting Wisconsin transfer Gio Paez at the tackle spot opposite Guillory. In four years in Madison, Paez had six career starts, 35 tackles and no sacks. He’s not a superstar. The likely backups, Kimo Makane’ole and Jalen Lee, have a combined four career starts between them and very little production. 

The interior of USC’s offensive line should win this matchup. Jonah Monheim is one of the best, most experienced offensive linemen in the country. Emmanuel Pregnon is a physical freak who got better last year as the season when on and should be ready for a breakout season. And the Trojans should get good production from either Alani Noa or Gino Quinones at the other guard spot. USC should win this interior matchup and be able to run the ball, which will make it much easier to protect Miller Moss and get the passing game going. If USC can run the ball, it sets up the most favorable matchup of the night …

2. USC wide receivers v. LSU secondary

LSU’s secondary was a giant weakness last year, consistently giving up big plays. The Tigers did bring in a transfer safety from Texas A&M, but unlike USC—which completely revamped its secondary in the transfer portal—LSU will be counting on the same guys and just hoping they’re better with a new coaching staff and an extra year of experience.

They probably will be better, but I’m not sure they’ll be good enough. 

Blake Baker is aggressive. He liked to blitz. He likes to put his secondary in man-coverage situations. That secondary will hold up just fine if USC can’t protect Miller Moss. But if they can, the LSU secondary will likely struggle with USC’s wide receivers. The four super sophomores will be a problem for any secondary, and Kyle Ford, Jay Fair, Kyron Hudson and others are all capable of making plays. Give Moss time, and he’s going to throw for 350 plus. 

3. Bear Alexander v. DJ Chester, LSU center

On the other side of the ball, USC faces what might be the best offensive line in the country. Will Campbell and Emery Jones are the nation’s top tackle duo and both are expected to be high NFL draft choices. (Some analysts think Jones will need to slide inside at the next level, but nobody doubts he will be a very good pro.) The guards, Dellinger and Frazier, may not be at the same talent level, but they’re both very big and very experienced.

The likely weak link is DJ Chester, a redshirt freshman taking over at center for the Tigers. Chester is talented. He’s a big kid who was very highly recruited. But center is a tough position, and Chester has not been tested by fire.

Bear Alexander must beat him consistently. 

USC has some edge players that can challenge the LSU tackles. Anthony Lucas and Braylan Shelby in particular are extraordinarily talented, and while they lack the production of the LSU tackles, I expect they’ll have their moments. But USC cannot count on the edge guys to consistently win their battles. They need Bear Alexander to get a major push up front and command double teams. This means Bear must take that next step that the USC coaches have been talking about. He must go from uber-talented guy who flashes to consistently dominant. 

If he does, he can negate LSU’s biggest advantage, because nothing is more disruptive to an offense than interior penetration. Interior pressure blows up running plays and stops quarterbacks from stepping into their throws. 

I think USC is better on the interior than we thought they were going to be. The coaches seem genuinely excited about the depth at the interior spots, and Nate Clifton, Gavin Meyer, and Elijah Hughes should play well this year. But USC’s defense is probably going to go as far as Bear Alexander takes them. To win in Vegas, USC must have its potential superstar defensive tackle become an actual superstar.

4. USC secondary v. Garrett Nussmeier’s brain

Garrett Nussmeier is a talented kid with a good arm who had a big bowl game. But he’s not Jayden Daniels. He doesn’t pose the same running threat as Daniels, and he doesn’t have the same experience. He’s also not throwing to the same receiving corps, as LSU lost its two top receivers from last year. (But I wouldn’t spend much time thinking about that. It’s LSU; when is the last time LSU didn’t have capable receivers?)

D’Anton Lynn is a secondary guy. Doug Belk is a fantastic secondary coach. They have a group of long, talented, and experienced players at their disposal. Unlike LSU, which largely hopes last year’s guys will get better, USC went and stocked the cupboard with Kamari Ramsey, Akili Arnold, John Humphrey, and DeCarlos Nicholson. These guys can play. Lynn needs to conceal coverages, and he needs his experienced secondary to take advantage of any Nussmeier mistakes.

I think he’ll make some. Nussmeier hasn’t played a ton, and he hasn’t played in a setting like the one he’ll see in Vegas. He has only one start and 219 career attempts. And in those 219 career attempts, he has been somewhat turnover-prone, throwing seven interceptions. I don’t want to overstate the issue. He hasn’t been throwing the ball into safeties’ chests every other throw, he’s undoubtedly grown as a player, and the sample size is small. But seven picks in 219 career attempts isn’t very good. That’s almost a 3% interception rate, which over the course of the season would put a quarterback somewhere around 100 in the country. By way of (unfair) comparison, Caleb Williams had 11 picks in 1,100 attempts in his three years in college.

It’s hard to see USC beating LSU unless it can confuse Nussmeier and force him to make mistakes. With the exception of Bear Alexander, LSU has the advantage upfront with its experienced offensive line, and it has quality running backs. USC must play well enough against the run to force some long-yardage situations, and when they do, D’Anton Lynn must confuse Nussmeier, and USC’s talented secondary must take advantage.  

Bottom line

This is a great matchup. Both teams have NFL talent and solid coaching staffs. Both can set up a potential playoff run with a win in the opener. But both are also facing pressure after playing poor defense last year. Because of the talent level of the opposing offenses, either of these defenses can be much improved and still give up 30+ points. But a bad defensive performance by either team will be a major blow to that team, its recruiting efforts, and the fan base. 

I think this is a coin-toss game, and because it’s an opener, no outcome would shock me. But I think USC will run the ball well enough to keep LSU off-balance, and I don’t think LSU’s secondary will have an answer for USC’s perimeter playmakers. 

USC 33, LSU 31

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Join us the Saturday before the game for a live taping of Inside the Trojans Huddle and a meet and greet.