Musings from Arledge: Riley (finally) did the right thing, but can we trust him now?

I never thought we would be here.  It’s only Lincoln Riley’s second season, less than two years since USC fans were shocked and exuberant that we had hired maybe the best young coach in the country.  I thought we were headed back to the top.  I didn’t expect this.  

It was obvious very early in Clay Helton’s tenure that USC football had no chance under his leadership.  The truth is that Clay Helton never should have been a major college football coach.  That was his job because of an accident of birth.  Clay was a throwback to the Middle Ages.  If you ran into a cobbler in Munich in 1576, there’s a virtual certainty that his dad was a cobbler, and his grandfather, too, and that he simply took over the family business.  Talent, proclivity, desire—none of that mattered.  Generation after generation, sons would take over the family business.  We’ve been cobblers for 12 generations!

That was Clay Helton.  His dad was an average football coach, so when Clay grew up, he became an average football coach, too.  It’s just what you do.  He did it even though he isn’t cut out for it.  Being a major college football coach is a demanding job that requires a diverse and impressive skill set, which is why so few people can do it well.  You have to be a strategist, a psychologist, an administrator, a politician, a disciplinarian, a surrogate father, and a great many other things.  Clay Helton was cut out to be something else entirely.  A Wal-Mart greeter, I suspect.  And he would have killed it leading workout classes for senior citizens at the local rec center.  But not a major college football coach.  He had the same chance to succeed in that job as I would have had making a career in the ballet.  It never made any sense.  

When USC hired Lincoln Riley, I thought we had finally done it right.  This was a driven, smart, accomplished coach.  A true professional.  Yes, I knew his defenses at OU struggled.  But I figured he was smart and young and would adjust.  

And much of what we expected from Lincoln Riley has come true.  His offenses perform.  This year’s version has struggled at times, somewhat unexpectedly.  But they’re also second in scoring, eighth in total yards, and fourth in yards per play.  Those aren’t exactly terrible numbers.  This is where his offenses almost always are.  He’s a fantastic offensive coordinator.

What I didn’t realize—because I didn’t study Oklahoma games when Riley coached there—is that Riley’s defensive struggles were due to clear, open, and obvious negligence.  I didn’t realize that Lincoln Riley tolerated a shocking level of incompetence from his subordinates on the other side of the ball, and that he would tolerate it week after week, year after year.

But we know it now, don’t we?

So Riley has finally done what the rest of the world already knew needed to be done last year.  Or a couple years before that if you’re an Oklahoma fan.

And that’s what’s so frustrating here; it didn’t have to be this way.  Lincoln Riley should have known years ago that Alex Grinch is a lousy defensive coordinator, and he could have taken action then.  It’s almost criminal that he didn’t take action then.  Elite head coaches can have different personality types, different offensive and defensive systems, different communication styles.  But what they all must have is elite problem-solving skills.  Elite head coaches must identify issues before they destroy the season, not after.  

Lincoln Riley is the captain of a ship that does a lot of things really well.  His ship is shiny.  He can maneuver that ship like few other captains can.  There’s so much about him as a captain that is exemplary.  That reverse flea flicker?  Brilliant.  There’s only one problem: he hits the same iceberg every journey.  

The last two years aren’t the first times that Lincoln Riley has had an elite, high-powered offense and a team that fell apart because of horrific defense.  It’s happened many, many times.  After Riley ran his ship into the no-defense iceberg again last year, we all wondered whether he’d make changes.  But he decided to stick with the status quo instead.  His passengers were understandably nervous.  I suspect a lot of his crew was nervous as well.  And this year, as we saw the iceberg coming, as the guy in the crow’s nest was screaming “Iceberg, dead ahead!,” as the Coast Guard was sending warnings, as the passengers themselves saw the iceberg and started to scream to turn this ship, Captain Riley continued to do what he had done on all his previous journeys, and he ran his ship straight into the same, stupid iceberg.  

And now we are all sitting in the lifeboats looking at one another, bewildered.  And we all know, deep down inside, that it didn’t have to be this way.  Worse, we know now that we can’t actually trust this captain.  How could you?  He finally did the right thing.  But maybe he’s not the guy we thought he was.

And that’s a huge problem.  Because one of the primary duties of the head coach is to get people to buy into the next journey.  You need players to buy into what you’re doing.  You need recruits to buy into what you’re doing.  You need fans and donors to buy into what you’re doing.  And I think that kind of faith is in short supply right now.

The stats show this is one of the worst defenses in the country and, I believe, the worst defense in modern USC football history.  Monte had a claim to that title.  So did the defense from two years ago after Clay Helton was fired, when many of the players had quit and the program was in complete disarray.  But I think this is the worst, and in context, I don’t think it’s a close call.  This isn’t a program in disarray after a coaching change or one on sanctions with significant depth problems.  And we can quibble as to how much talent this defense has, but we should all be able to agree that it’s not one of the least-talented units in the country.  It’s just not.  It would be stupid to suggest otherwise.  

But Alex Grinch’s unit had no idea what it was supposed to be doing.  It looked most weeks like he pulled a group of guys out of a rainforest somewhere who have never heard of football and stuck them on the field after a week of practice.  I’ve seen plenty of defenses that have weaknesses.  That one is small and can’t stop the run.  That one is slow in the secondary and struggles in pass coverage.  That one has depth problems.  But seldom do you see a defense that can’t do anything right.  USC can’t do anything right.  They can’t stop the run.  They can’t cover anybody.  They can’t rush the passer.  They can’t tackle.  Often they can’t line up.  USC’s defense is literally bad at everything.  It’s a horror show.  I keep expecting Jason Vorhees to pop out and start slashing at people with a machete.  And had that happened, it would not have been the ugliest thing I witnessed last night.  I might even have invited him over to end my suffering.

Washington doesn’t run the ball particularly well.  They haven’t even been particularly explosive in the passing game over the last month.  Yet Washington’s mediocre running game put on a display of dominance last night that you rarely see.  They became 1995 Nebraska for a night.  Maybe they have some sick guys and that was their Make-a-Wish?

Alex Grinch and Lincoln Riley allowed it.  Again!  Washington did what everybody else has been doing.  They even, for example, came out in the same formation and ran the same play that Arizona ran over and over again: a toss sweep from a narrow-set trips formation.  And Alex Grinch relied on his corner and his nickel to set the edge and make a play, just as he has asked them to do all year.  And just like in every other game, they couldn’t.  Or wouldn’t.  Does it matter which?  They haven’t set the corner and physically taken on that play all year before last night, they didn’t do it last night, and they won’t do it next week, either.  And for Grinch and Riley to come out and let Washington do that to them over and over again after prior opponents had done it to them over and over again and try the same failing approach to it over and over again is a shocking level of coaching malpractice.  Washington’s running back had never had a big game in his life.  He had 256 and four scores yesterday, and 199 came before contact!  That’s a crazy stat.  It’s inexcusable, and I have no desire to pretend otherwise.

Why did it take so long for Riley to see this?  He’s the head coach.  Football is his vocation and his life.  I can see it, and I’m just a guy on the internet.  I’ve written about this very play.  I’ve put together a video about this very play.  And Washington comes out and embarrasses USC with this very play anyway.  

It’s hard to know what to say.  My professional life is words, and I don’t have words to describe that level of incompetence.  Homer Simpson turned in a better performance as safety engineer at the nuclear power plant.  

Sadly, that wasn’t the only glaring problem.  Everything on defense was bad.  Again.

Caleb Williams was, for the most part, brilliant.  He made two huge mistakes: the fumble and taking the sack late in the 4th to lose field goal position.  Those were the difference in the game by one way of thinking.  But it’s unfair to expect a guy to carry the team on his shoulders and be brilliant all night and not be able to make a mistake or two.  Yes, Caleb holds the ball too long.  Whatever.  It was Lincoln Riley holding onto Alex Grinch too long that put the program where it is.  I’m not interested in pointing the finger at anything else.  Anything else is a distraction.

So Riley finally fires Alex Grinch.  At this point, what choice did he have?  In the last six games, USC has given up more than 44 points per game!  Stop for a second.  Don’t read the next sentence.  Just think about that: 44 points a game!  Can you imagine?  Those are video game numbers.  They’re silly.  

The collapse of Alex Grinch’s defense is so spectacular, so complete, that it’s like nothing we’ve ever seen.  Grinch was the defensive equivalent of Kirk Ferentz’s kid, only Riley couldn’t blame a father’s love.  If Lincoln Riley kept Alex Grinch after this performance he wouldn’t be a coach at all; he’d just be a saboteur.  So, yeah, he fired him.

But it’s far too late.  Riley squandered Caleb Williams, and he squandered the huge amount of goodwill that he had when he replaced Clay Helton.  USC fans were genuinely excited in a way they hadn’t been for many years.  All of that is gone.  All of it.  The honeymoon is gone.  The trust is gone.  USC won’t fire Lincoln Riley, and they shouldn’t.  But Riley has frayed his relationship with fans and donors because he couldn’t see or wouldn’t fix a problem so glaring that every member of the media, every opposing coach, every commentator, and virtually every fan could see this giant red flag a very long time ago.  I still don’t even know how to process that.  How could somebody like Lincoln Riley miss an iceberg that big?  USC fans could forgive a couple of rough seasons at the beginning.  We know the Clay Helton poured moonshine all over the house and set it on fire.  But we can’t forgive obvious incompetence that could have been avoided.  We can’t ignore that USC would have a shot at its second straight playoff appearance if Lincoln Riley would not have brought Fredo with him to run the defense.

So, yeah, Riley fired Grinch.  And when he hires a replacement, let’s hope he considers something important: it matters how you play.  If you face a hot quarterback with good receivers and he throws for 400 yards and beats you, that happens.  It’s frustrating, but sometimes there’s not much you can do about that.  But if you choose not to defend the run, if you let even mediocre teams smash it down your gullet week after week, with running backs often not getting touched until they are ten or twenty yards downfield, and if it’s happening because your personnel and scheme make it so you have no chance of defending the run, that’s so much worse.  

Giving up 40 to a great passing attack and giving up 40 (or 52, but who’s counting?) to a team that just tosses it to the tailback every play—those are not the same thing.  They are not.  Coaches who used to be quarterbacks often have a hard time understanding this, but football is not primarily about having clever X’s and O’s.  Football is a tough game played by tough men, and the primary goal should be to physically whip your opponent.  Great programs beat up on the other guys.  It is unacceptable not to commit to stopping the running game.  It is unacceptable to let the other team always be the more physical team.  It is unacceptable to get pushed around on your own field every week like USC’s defense does.

When you play that way, it’s demoralizing to your players—emasculating, embarrassing—and it stains the reputation and psyche of your program.  Nobody wants to be soft.  Nobody wants to watch a program that’s soft.  And nobody wants to be part of a program that’s soft.  

And it’s an insult to the tradition of this great program.  USC football was built on toughness and physicality.  All of the great programs are.  It took decades, lots of legendary players, and some great, hard-nosed football coaches to build that culture and reputation.  And I’m tired of the Lane Kiffins, Steve Sarkisians, Clay Helton’s, and, yes, the Lincoln Rileys of the world coming into this program, thinking that the key to football is a clever offense, and on a weekly letting the true foundation of the program erode.  If you don’t understand that physically beating up on the other guy is what football is all about, and if you don’t understand that football players by their nature crave being the hammer rather than the nail, then shame on you.  And maybe shame on us for always hiring former quarterbacks with a cotton-soft mentality.

I’m disappointed that USC has three losses and is on its way to four or five.  I’m disappointed but not angry about that.  Winning is hard, and this is a demanding schedule.  But I am angry that Lincoln Riley threw away the season by keeping a defensive coordinator that everybody in the world but Lincoln Riley knew was incompetent.   

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So here we go to the game I’ve been dreading for a very long time.  If you’re reading this, you probably already know how much I hate Oregon football.  I hate the upstart, look-at-me! mentality.  I hate the arrogance.  I hate that Phil Knight used money and marketing prowess to build a program.  I hate the uniforms.  I hate everything about them.

But this Oregon team is good.  Oregon has better players, better coaches, a better home-field advantage, and more to play for.  Some of you think USC has a football game Saturday.  It doesn’t.  USC has a public execution Saturday.   And Oregon, which has spent 20 years trying to supplant USC as the west coast’s premier football program, will make it humiliating.  They will pummel USC and rub their noses in it.  They will prance and taunt.  They will make it hurt as bad as it can hurt.  This won’t be a fight.  It won’t a contest.  It will be a public de-pantsing.  It will be a bully with a chip on his shoulder terrorizing a weakling that he hates.  

I predicted that USC would beat Notre Dame.  And Utah.  Even Washington.  But not this one.  If Caleb is magic on Saturday, maybe it’s still a game in the fourth quarter.  But I doubt it.  This will likely be worse than the Notre Dame game.   And that makes me furious, too.  I’m furious that USC is in this position, furious that USC is about to be humiliated on national television, furious that USC won’t cover people or tackle them, furious that USC won’t even make a half-hearted effort to stop the run.  Furious that Lincoln Riley allowed Oregon to become the premier program on the west coast when he could have held the top spot if he just insisted on modest levels of competence from his defensive staff.

Maybe Nua and Odom may surprise us.  I doubt it; even if they’re great coaches, I don’t know that you can fix this level of dysfunction in one week.  So this Saturday is going to be painful.  And Lincoln brought it on himself.

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So we can now close the book on Alex Grinch.  I’d promise not to talk about him again, but I’m the guy that spent a couple paragraphs on Helton earlier.  So I can’t really promise that.  Lincoln Riley now understands his program is in deep trouble unless he makes significant changes.  That obviously includes a new defensive coordinator and (I hope) widespread changes in the defensive staff.  It also likely includes a re-thinking of USC’s recruiting strategies.  

Lincoln Riley will continue to have offenses that score points.  And Lincoln Riley’s teams will still be in a strong position to win lots of games if they simply have competent play on the other side of the ball.  The thoroughness of the defensive collapse this year forced Riley to overhaul, not tinker, on the defensive side.  If he hires an elite defensive coordinator, there’s still a chance that USC can have real success on a national level in the years to come.  No, we can’t trust Riley—not after this year’s very foreseeable disaster.  But it is entirely possible that USC will now—finally—bring in the type of defensive leadership it needs.  

This season is a waste.  The war is over, and we got routed.  Now Oregon and—please no—UCLA will parade around the prisoners and humiliate us.  But make the necessary changes, and there may be brighter days ahead.