Musings from Arledge: State of the USC Trojans

The USC Trojans are 3-3, and each loss was probably a game that should have been won. Now the improved defense is down Bear Alexander, Anthony Lucas, and Eric Gentry. The fans are getting restless. Lincoln Riley says USC is in the process of building something special, but that it takes time. Many fans are not sold, with some are arguing that the writing is on the wall and Lincoln Riley simply cannot succeed at USC.  (That’s certainly what Oklahoma fans have been saying for a couple of years now. Then again, they were excited about Brent Venables, and the wheels are about to come off his wagon. And most of them can’t read anyway.) 

Of course, no matter how much screaming fans do, Lincoln Riley isn’t going anywhere, at least not involuntarily, because USC has committed far too much money in this regime. But putting that aside, are the critics right?  Is Lincoln Riley doomed to fail?

I don’t think so. I’ve seen what that looks like. This is a very different situation.

I’m not adverse to a good internet torch-and-pitchfork campaign against a coach. I spent my first four or five years on this site arguing that USC needed to fire Clay Helton; I started that when many fans were still being fooled by Clay’s Aw-Shucks-Give-Me-A-Hug routine.  I spent the next two years arguing that USC needed to fire the incompetent Alex Grinch.  I was right both times.   

So I don’t always blindly support the coaching staff. But I do think USC fans are jumping the gun here. The program has problems—some of them caused by Lincoln Riley’s own bad decisions—but I think there’s a light at the end of this tunnel.

For years, starting long before Lincoln Riley came to USC, the question was whether Riley was capable of putting together a solid defense. Was his practice style conducive to great defense?  Was his culture tough enough to grow a great defense? Did his offensive style make good defense too difficult? Nobody knew. Many doubted him. And concern turned into panic when Riley blew up his first two years at USC by bringing Alex Grinch with him and then, amazingly, keeping him after it was clear to everybody with a pulse—and probably some without—that Alex Grinch was a disaster.

But I think this big question about Riley has been answered, and the answer is good. I’m not suggesting that this year’s USC defense is great. They’re not. And with the loss of three of its most talented players, things could take a turn for the worse. But the defense is far more disciplined than in years past, they’re tough, and they play hard. The problem is a lack of talent, especially upfront.  I love the guys playing in the front seven. They are hard-working, aggressive, overachievers.  I’ve praised them most of the year, and they have deserved it. They have more than held their own against LSU, Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin. But it’s not an uber-talented group.  There aren’t a bunch of first-round picks on that defensive line or linebacking corps.  

And there isn’t a single guy upfront that gives opposing offensive coordinators sleepless nights. Great defenses have at least one guy upfront that the other team just can’t block, usually more than one. USC doesn’t have any. To be an elite defense, USC must recruit elite defensive-line talent. That was impossible with Alex Grinch around. It was impossible when the NIL was fundamentally broken. It was impossible when nobody knew if Lincoln Riley cared about defense.

It’s possible now. This staff and improved NIL mean that USC can land defensive linemen that it could not land in past years. And if Shaun Nua and Eric Henderson can build a solid unit (at least against the run) with a group of guys that nobody thought could play, I suspect they can work wonders with a group of elite talents.  

This is still a matter of faith in one regard; I concede it. Right now, USC cannot rush the passer. I’m surprised Anthony Lucas and Braylon Shelby haven’t shown more as pass rushers. I’m surprised Kameryn Fountain hasn’t gotten a long look in light of the poor pass rush. Maybe the young guys will improve as the season goes on. Maybe the coaching staff will need to re-assess how they teach their pass-rushing skills this offseason. Still, I think with elite talent upfront, this staff can put an elite defense on the field.  

The bottom line is that USC will play defense in the coming years. I can see that. Recruits, parents, and high school coaches can see that. We have an answer to the biggest question mark facing the program.  

We need a return of Lincoln Riley offense, of course. This offense hasn’t been terrible, but they’ve been inconsistent and lacking in explosive plays, especially in the passing game. Some fans are starting to panic.  

Don’t.  

This is a very inexperienced offense. Miller Moss, the four frosh receivers, the tight end (with McRee out), the left tackle, and the left guard have all played very little football. Combine that with a position change for the most-experienced offensive lineman and a right tackle who has to play out of position, and you have the makings of inconsistency.

There are admittedly some questions about Josh Henson at this point. It’s probably not his fault that USC did not recruit the elite tackles available the last two years; with a broken NIL program, USC didn’t have the money to compete for those guys. But getting somebody competent in the transfer portal was a must, and USC didn’t do that. I also have concerns about the poor play from the experienced transfers last year. I think it’s fair to say the jury is out right now.

But it hasn’t all been bad. Emanuel Pregnon has made huge strides over the last 12 games, and I think many of the younger guys Henson has recruited will as well.  Elijah Paige and Alani Noa are going to be good. Amos Talalele will be good. I think Tobias Raymond has promise.  And we haven’t seen some of the other guys, but I think there is size and talent there. So there are reasons for hope. USC is just playing too many guys too fast. With the exception of a few freaks, offensive linemen take years to develop. It’s the hardest position to fill with a young player. And problems upfront have been the single biggest problem for USC’s offense.

That hasn’t been the only problem. USC’s receivers need to develop as well. Again, that can take time. Right now, the receiving corps can’t block, and they’re not as physical as they need to be getting off tight, man coverage. And they sometimes show a lack of focus leading to drops. They’re unbelievable talents, but they’re not great players yet. That will come. Brendan Rice and Tahj Washington were dramatically better last year than they were earlier in their careers. I think the four sophs will grow in a similar fashion. Not everybody can be Mike Williams.  

And I know some of you don’t want to hear it, but Miller Moss needs to develop as well. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a first-year starting quarterback with more buy-in from the fan base. Miller’s decision to stay at USC and sit behind Caleb Williams, his decision not to transfer when USC was looking at transfer quarterbacks, his play in last year’s bowl game, and his clutch performance against LSU—combined with his leadership and great personality—have made Moss a crowd favorite.  

But this is still a guy who has only started seven games, and it shows. The game hasn’t slowed down for him yet, and his accuracy is inconsistent, probably because the beating he has taken has led to questionable fundamentals. Right now, Moss is an above average quarterback who still makes some bad decisions, doesn’t read the field like an elite quarterback, and struggles to throw the ball downfield. He’s also going to continue to get better. He’s tough, a hard worker, and he has the right coach. He’ll be fine. But like the other guys without much experience, his play has hurt USC at times this year.

The disappointing record masks it, but the USC football program is in a better place right now than it has been in many years. USC has split with two top-ten teams, beating one in the last seconds and giving the game to the other in the last few seconds. Splitting those games with this roster isn’t a disappointment, even if the Penn State game was there for the taking. The Michigan loss wasn’t good; Michigan is average, and USC had that game won. But Michigan might have the best defensive line in the country—that makes for a tough matchup right now—and playing on the road is always tough, much less in a venue like that. Those things happen. The only really bad loss so far was Minnesota, and that was brutal.  

I won’t paper over that terrible loss.But this is college football; bad losses happen. Notre Dame lost at home to Northern Illinois. Alabama lost to Vanderbilt. Hawaii lost to UCLA. Very few teams go through a full season without a bad loss.  

USC, with improved NIL and a real defensive staff, is now recruiting much better. USC still can’t compete on a level playing field with Ohio State and Oregon, the two pay-for-play champions of the Big 10. But the gap has closed, and the recruiting has picked up as a result. The young guys are starting to develop.  The second half of the schedule is much less daunting than the first half. And next year’s schedule is much more manageable. It’s much too early to give up on Lincoln Riley’s USC program. I still believe good times are ahead.