Musings from Arledge: Still the Pac-12, Recruiting Texas, and UCLA

This has been a much better season for Pac-12 football. The conference currently has six ranked teams, and this weekend, the two premier games in college football will be Pac-12 games.

But the Pac-12 is still the Pac-12.

And, so, one week away from having the two biggest games in all of college football, the Pac-12 does what the Pac-12 does: finds a way to take some of the luster off both games.

People were shocked by Oregon’s loss, but that’s only because people had been badly overestimating Oregon. Oregon is good offensively, really good, but prior to this past Saturday, a lot of commentators believed that Oregon had separated itself from the rest of the conference. That was foolish.

What Oregon had proven is that it is good at blowing out bad teams. That’s it. The Ducks got pantsed in their opener with Georgia, they played like garbage against Wazzu and would have lost if the Cougars hadn’t Coug’d it, and they played a string of bad teams. They had one quality win — against UCLA — and that’s a good win. But the heart of their schedule comes at the end with Washington, Utah, and Oregon State in consecutive weeks. They already lost one of those three. Don’t be surprised if they lose another. Let’s hope so, and let’s hope it’s Utah for reasons we’ll talk about in a minute.

In many respects, UCLA had the best resume of the top Pac-12 teams. They lost on the road to Oregon but soundly beat Utah and Washington. UCLA didn’t get the credit they might have for those wins just because nobody trusts UCLA. And you know why? Because you can’t trust UCLA.

One week before the biggest USC-UCLA game since 1988, the Bruins fall apart and lose a game they had no business losing. Just like they did in 1988, for that matter. Why? Were the Bruins surprised that Arizona can throw the ball a little? Not if they actually watched the USC-Arizona game. It was just UCLA being UCLA. Falling on your face just before the biggest game of the year is the most UCLA thing you can do.

Can you imagine how infuriating it must be to be a Bruins fan? We like to make fun of UCLA fans when the Rose Bowl crowds look like the Cleveland Indians crowds at the beginning of Major League. But it’s hard to blame them. UCLA is always just seconds away from lighting themselves on fire. At any time you have to be prepared for the Bruins to run into a phone booth, tear off their suit, and expose the clown costume underneath. It’s just who they are.

So where does that leave us? USC is in the best position, obviously. It’s the highest-ranked team, it has only one loss, and that was a one-point loss on the road to a good team where USC got hosed by the officials. If the Trojans win out, they will almost certainly be in the college football playoff. Only once has a one-loss conference champion not made the playoff, and in that situation, the team did not have USC’s cache or tradition, nor did it have the star power of Caleb Williams or Lincoln Riley. If USC beats three-straight ranked teams and wins the conference, they’re in. Don’t listen to the talking heads on this. If USC wins out, it’s a done deal.

But USC still has a lot to prove, and winning out will be a major challenge. I think USC will be a slight favorite in all of them. But they’re all games that could go south.

The UCLA game should be a track meet. But teams have a nasty habit of letting the opposing offense run up and down the field with little or no resistance. And both of these offenses are capable of running up and down the field on anybody. Both teams are in the top 10 nationally in total offense, scoring offense, and yards per play. Both are balanced. UCLA runs the ball a little better — or at least they seem more committed to doing so — and with Travis Dye out, the Bruins’ running game is more reliable than USC’s. But I give the USC passing game the nod. USC has more weapons on the outside, especially if Addison and Williams are healthy, and no way would I trust DTR as much as Caleb Williams. DTR has a history of falling apart in big situations. In a track meet, I trust Caleb Williams more than DTR. USC is a slight favorite, and for that reason alone, I think they should be.

But here’s the deal: historically, the UCLA game is a toss-up no matter what the records are. It’s a series where strange things happen, where unlikely heroes emerge. It would make no sense, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a scoreless first quarter. It’s just how this series is. I don’t know what to expect Saturday. I think USC will win, because most of the time, when both teams are good, the Trojans rise to the occasion and the Bruins do what Bruins do.

In the other big game, the other semifinal if you will, we have another toss-up game. Oregon, like USC and UCLA, is fantastic offensively, ranked highly in every major category. And like USC and UCLA, the Ducks really struggle defensively. In fact, by the numbers, they are the worst defensive team of the three. Oregon can score, and that Autzen homefield advantage is a big deal. I wouldn’t be shocked if they win. But Utah is mentally and physically tough. Last year they absolutely beat the snot out of Oregon twice. I think Utah wins this one, setting up the conference title game I really want: a rematch of that 43-42 game last month. On a neutral field — assuming neutral officials — I like the Trojans in that one.

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It only indirectly affects USC, but the major programs that normally dominate Texas recruiting are all falling on their faces. Texas, which has flirted with looking like a team on the rise at times this year, is now 6-4 with two decent teams remaining on the schedule. Seven-Win Sark is right on pace.

Oklahoma, hilariously, is now 5-5 and only 2-5 in the Big 12. The Sooners are getting ready to join the SEC. It’s nice to see that they’re peaking at just the right time. Brent Venables appears to be every bit the upgrade that Oklahoma fans said he would be.

And speaking of peaking at the right time, Texas A&M is now 3-7 with LSU still on the schedule. Has anybody had a more eventful year than Jimbo Fisher? He started with a ton of preseason hype, he got in a public spat with Nick Saban over his recruiting practices, and then the bottom completely fell out. Texas A&M is on their way to a 4-8 season, and it’s really impossible to see the program as anything other than a national joke, a raging grease fire.

I know Lincoln Riley and staff have deep ties in Texas and love to recruit there. This seems like a pretty good time to be doing that.

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The loss of Travis Dye is heartbreaking. USC will miss him as a player, obviously. He’s been the second-best player on the offense behind Caleb Williams, and his ability to do it all — run, catch, pass block — makes him indispensable. On top of that, he’s a great leader, and a guy who clearly loved the opportunity to come back to LA and play for the hometown team. Next man up, of course, but I hate it that Travis won’t have a chance to play in the three biggest games of the year. Thank you, Travis, for what you did this year. I suspect you’re a lot of Trojan fans’ favorite player.

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Next week I plan to so some special USC-Notre Dame stuff, including a Musings from Arledge video with a couple of Notre Dame legends. I will make fun of them and their alma mater, of course, and we’ll get some great stories about this history of the rivalry and some analysis of the upcoming game.