Musings from Arledge: USC and Lincoln Riley head into a pivotal offseason

Three, two, one….

It’s a common trope in action movies. The hero is trying to save the day but the obstacles may be too big to overcome, and time is running out. The bomb is about to go off, and the audience’s anxiety climbs as they watch the clock tick closer and closer to zero.

That’s not a terrible analogy for Lincoln Riley’s USC program. This is a big offseason for Riley and the Trojans, and the clock is ticking closer and closer to the big bang. 

After three years of Lincoln Riley’s leadership, USC football is still not built on a solid foundation. Riley could, at any time, win 11 games like he did in 2022 on the back of a transcendent quarterback talent; elite quarterbacks still want to play for him, and for good reason. But a program built on a solid foundation of elite line play and a tough, physical run game—the kind of program that can win even if you have an above-average quarterback like Miller Moss or Jayden Maiava and not a future number-one draft pick? No, Riley hasn’t built that. The guy who coached Indiana State when Larry Bird came along had a great season with Bird; but if your program is built on having Larry Bird at forward, it’s probably not sustainable. And a program that wins only if you have a future Pro Bowler at quarterback is a program that can’t compete consistently with the Ohio States and Georgias, because nobody always has a future Pro Bowl quarterback. Not even Lincoln Riley. 

USC’s roster is not elite. There are some reasons for this that are beyond Riley’s control. No organization of any kind is going to build an elite workforce if its competitors are offering two or three times the compensation. At some jobs you might take less pay for a more family-friendly atmosphere or because you believe in the company’s vision and future. But in college football, the starting linebacker at USC and Ohio State are doing the same thing for the same number of hours a week. It’s expecting a lot to expect a guy to turn down a much larger paycheck, especially when USC can’t promise that the kid will get to play in the biggest, most important games.

USC is now willing to play the NIL game, and while it doesn’t have Oregon’s bank account, it has enough to win some of these recruiting battles. But other issues have popped up as well. What at first seemed like a coup in stealing Lincoln Riley from Norman now looks pretty questionable. It’s still not clear if Lincoln Riley is an elite head coach or an elite quarterback whisperer who has Peter Principled his way into the big chair and big, seaside mansion. Most troubling, Riley’s offense—his trademark—was a horror show for big chunks of this year; the passing game was turnover-prone and lacked big plays, and Riley seems unwilling to commit to the run game. The offense even looked predictable much of the time—let’s just wait for him to start throwing, to paraphrase PJ Fleck—and there were many games where the opposing offensive game plan and play calling seemed far superior to Riley’s. 

There are very serious concerns about Lincoln Riley’s ability to captain this plane. 

And while many coaches have had a couple of down years and survived to do great things, you can only string together so many bad seasons in this era of college football. At some point, high school players and coaches stop believing in what you’re selling, and so do fans and boosters, and the constant flow of money that you need to recruit players and retain the best returning players dries up. Your program finds itself in a dive that no pilot can recover from.  

The bottom line is USC has substantial work to do this offseason to upgrade its roster and, I believe, do a much-needed reevaluation of what it’s doing offensively. And time is running out on Lincoln Riley. I’m not sure this program can afford another lousy season.

Still, I have hope for next season if Lincoln Riley plays his cards right and catches a couple of breaks.

Offense

Let’s start with one of the biggest question marks. Lincoln Riley has to make a quarterback decision. Maiava has shown flashes, but he isn’t the true double threat we hoped he might be, and he has a tendency to make bad decisions—which means his shortcomings aren’t much different from those of the kid he replaced. The decision-making may improve with experience, and Maiava is a big, talented kid with a strong arm. Riley will have to decide whether an upgrade is available in the portal and, if so, whether it’s worth limited NIL funds to land the guy. 

Some think Lincoln Riley can only win with an elite quarterback. If that’s true, he needs to upgrade now. Riley can’t afford another five or six-loss season, and Maiava is not elite. But with help from Riley, with a solid one-two punch at wide receiver next year in Lemon and Lane, with a dramatically improved defense, and with a much easier schedule, USC can win nine or ten games with Maiava next year. 

So it all comes down to how much of an upgrade you can make in the portal and what it will cost. This team has a lot of holes, and I’m not sure there’s a Caleb Williams out there who can paper over them. Riley may have already made his decision; he talks as if he has. But I’m not sure about that. Even if he had doubts about Maiava, there’s no way he says anything publicly before the bowl game and before he has a portal commitment from another guy. This is something to keep any eye on. 

At running back, Bryan Jackson looks like a solid big back. His numbers weren’t eye-popping against the Aggies, but he’s a big, strong kid who runs hard and with vision. With another offseason in the strength program, he should only get better. He’s a very solid option. The Trojans still need a lightning option to go with Jackson’s thunder. Maybe Eli Sanders, the transfer from New Mexico, can provide that. He’s certainly fast, and he had a very good year last year. And USC has been good at bringing in running-back talent from the portal, so I’m not in a position to criticize Riley’s choice there. But I’m not convinced they’re done. That room needs depth, and as much as I like Harry Dalton, I don’t love the idea of relying on a true freshman to be ready from day one.

At wide receiver, USC has a solid one-two punch at the top. Makai Lemon is progressing and is becoming a dependable number-one target. He’s living up to the five-star ranking in high school, which you can’t say about all of USC’s receivers this year. The wildcard is Ja’Kobi Lane. He has the talent to be a ten-year NFL starter. We’ll have to see how much he wants it. The rumors about Lane’s work ethic and seriousness are concerning. He needs to grow up and work to maximize his immense potential. If he does, USC would have the best receiving duo in the country next year. But that’s still a big “if” at this point. There are promising freshmen on the way—it’s a fast group—but there’s probably still room for another transfer that can give you three proven options.

It’s been a long time since USC used its tight ends as weapons in the passing game. They’ve recruited the position well, and they’ve gotten some very solid blocking performances from Lake McRee. There appears to be some good young talent in that room. Whether USC will manage to develop somebody that keeps opposing defensive coordinators up at night is anybody’s guess, but they haven’t done that in many, many years. Where have you gone Fred Davis, the nation turns its lonely eyes to you. Woo, woo, woo.

The second-biggest question mark when it comes to the offense is the offensive line. I expect continued improvement from Elijah Paige, and with Emanuel Pregnon’s return—maybe the biggest event of the offseason so far—USC should have a very good left side locked in. Alani Noa should also be solid at right guard with another offseason of development. Are Kilian O’Connor and Tobias Raymond the answers at the other two spots? They played well in the Las Vegas Bowl. Raymond is a big kid with good feet. Next year will be his third in the program, and that’s usually where offensive linemen start to become ready. But I still think USC has to find a couple of starter-quality players at center and tackle. Even if O’Connor and Raymond are ready to go, USC would be unable to afford any injuries. You can’t run a program with question marks at multiple O-line positions and razor-thin depth.

This is a major concern, because as good as USC has been at finding running backs in the portal, they have been equally inept at finding offensive linemen. Last year everybody in the world knew USC needed to find transfers who could start. Riley struck out. The year before they pulled in what appeared to be three quality transfers, but only Emanuel Pregnon panned out, and even that took many weeks into the season. And this year there has been very little smoke in the transfer portal in this position group. If USC’s offense underperforms again next year, the failure to recruit quality players out of the transfer portal will likely once again be the reason. USC cannot afford to strike out again. I’m concerned they might, but it’s still early. This is a key position group to watch in the coming weeks.

And, oddly, the biggest question mark for next year’s offense may be … Lincoln Riley. I never thought I’d type that sentence. Riley seems unwilling to commit to the run, and the passing game was a mess. USC got yards, but it took far too many attempts to get those yards. The two quarterbacks combined for 7.1 yards per attempt, which is a very bad figure, and the 15 interceptions—many of them critical, game-changing picks—is equally awful. In the 14 games since Caleb Williams left, USC had a back-breaking interception in the majority of them, and Jayden Maiava contributed a whole series of those just against Notre Dame and Texas A&M. If that doesn’t change, next season will be another disaster. 

USC’s offense was predictable, non-explosive, and mistake-prone. Yes, the offensive line was a weakness, but even that’s on Riley. And his inability to get a quality passing game from Moss and Maiava—neither a superstar but both above average college quarterbacks—is troubling. Offensive geniuses and famed quarterback whisperers should do better. 

Riley should probably reevaluate his offense this offseason they way he did the defense last offseason. But I suspect that hits too close to home. Riley probably isn’t going to believe that another offensive coordinator and play caller can do those jobs better than he can—and that’s not crazy, for what offensive coordinator has a better track record than he does? So the necessary improvement will likely have to come from him. Even an average Lincoln Riley offense next year gives USC a very good chance to have an excellent season. Riley’s reputation as an offensive genius has taken a hit. It’s time for Lincoln to earn that paycheck and show that he’s still the guy everybody thought he was.   

Defense

Defensively, I expect massive improvement next season. For the first time in a very long time, USC’s defensive line will be a major problem for opponents. Jah Jarrett and Keeshawn Silver give USC two massive bodies in the middle. It will be up to Coach Henny to get the most out of them, but after seeing what he did what Nate Clifton and Gavin Meyer last year, I’m betting on Henny. And the depth looks solid with Devan Thompkins (who will likely be over 300 pounds next year) and the three second-year guys—Carlon Jones, Jide Abisiri, and Ratumana Bulabalavu—developing behind them. That’s a really talented group of big guys. 

Pair the inside guys with Anthony Lucas, who was really starting to come around last year before the injury, Kameryn Fountain, who is quickly developing before our eyes and who will likely make a major jump, and you have a solid group of starters. Braylan Shelby may still turn into the guy everybody expected (though that is far from certain at this point), and if Jahkeem Stewart, an absolute freak athlete who the coaches say is advanced technically, is anywhere near his press clippings, he will be a problem for opposing offensive lines from day one.

That’s a good group, a really good group, coached by a very good coach. The massive improvement in the defensive line will result in a massive improvement defensively. Yes, there are still some holes to fill in the back seven. But you know what makes it much easier to play linebacker, safety or corner? A stud defensive line. I’m really excited about those guys up front. Having a top-three defensive line in the Big 10—and that’s what USC will have—will pay major dividends.

At linebacker, USC needs Eric Gentry to stay healthy. I don’t know if he can; that’s been a constant struggle. But Eric Gentry is a play maker, and behind next year’s defensive line he could be an absolute terror. But because of Gentry’s slight frame and injury history, USC needs two quality starters in addition to number 18. Desman Stephens showed flashes. Elijah Newby needs to add size, but has tremendous athleticism. Are they ready to become stars next year? I don’t know. I think USC still has to find a top-shelf linebacker in the portal. Give me one elite starter from the portal, and the other three guys mentioned above, and I’d expect USC’s linebackers to be better than this year’s group. But they need that transfer. And a coach. Losing Matt Entz was expected but is not ideal. USC obviously needs a solid replacement. 

In the secondary, losing Jaylin Smith hurts. He went from being a weak link in 2023 to a consistent stud in 2024. DJ Harvey from San Jose State could help alleviate that loss. We’ll see whether anybody else makes a Jaylin Smith-like jump. Doug Belk is a very good secondary coach, so that wouldn’t be a complete surprise.

USC will be better at safety. Kamari Ramsey is a potential All-American next year. Christian Pierce is ready and is more than capable of replacing Akili Arnold and Bryson Shaw. The loss of Zion Branch hurts. USC will need Jarvis Boatwright or Marquis Gallegos to step up and provide much-needed depth, or they need a quality transfer. 

USC’s defense went from being horrible—I mean really horrible; in the next Saw sequel, one of Saw’s cruel games was to lock people in a basement and force them to watch the 2021-2023 USC defenses—to being competent in one season. That was without much defensive line talent and only one offseason. USC’s defense will make a massive jump this offseason if—and you know what I have to say—they can keep the rest of the defensive staff intact. Eric Henderson, Doug Belk, and D’Anton Lynn are the key to continued defensive improvement, and each one of those guys will be a major target for college and NFL teams. I just don’t know if USC can hold onto them. Lynn will be in line for an NFL coordinator position or a college head coaching job. Let’s hope we can delay that move for one more year. Belk is also overqualified for a position coach. He will have suitors. And just about every program in the country would kill to have Henderson. USC must throw buckets of money at Henderson and hope that he wants to stick around and coach this impressive group he’s put together.

Special Teams 

My Christmas wish is not for world peace. Let somebody else waste their wish on that! I want to be able to make chip-shop field goals with consistency. The current USC football roster shows five placekickers, and I’m fighting the urge to talk about stuffing the whole room into a clown car on Saturday mornings. But, really, enough is enough. Not being able to make easy kicks consistently costs games. This has to be fixed. 

The bad decisions by return men needs to be fixed, too. Branch lost his mind this season, and Makai Lemon showed bad judgment in the bowl game. But Lemon also made some big plays on returns, so I’m hopeful USC will see real improvement next year.

As an aside, did anybody think after the first few games of the 2023 season, that Zachariah Branch would become possibly the worst return man in the Big 10 in 2024 and would be benched? Just mind-boggling. 

You can’t replace Eddie Czaplicki. He’s as good as I’ve seen at USC. But for one glorious moment his backup did just that in the bowl game. Eddie goes out, he comes in, and he crushes a 57-yard punt as he’s being hit. Do that every single punt next year and things should be fine.

Bottom Line

If USC can hold onto its defensive staff and find a few missing pieces in the portal—especially on the offensive line!—next year could be a very nice bounce-back season. The schedule is dramatically easier. Road trips to South Bend and Oregon will be major challenges, but USC can lose two games and still be in a very good spot. The Trojans should easily be 4-0 before a two-game stretch that will likely decide the season: at Illinois and then a bye to prepare for Michigan at home. Win both of those, and the Trojans are a legitimate playoff contender. 

USC is more likely to do that if somebody shows Lincoln Riley that there’s a big clock in the stadium and, at the end of each half, you have to stop playing when that clock reaches zero. He has a lot on his plate, and I think this little inconvenient fact from the football rulebook sometimes gets lost. 

This isn’t where I thought USC would be after three years of Lincoln Riley. I have real doubts about Riley as a head coach right now. But it’s also easy to see a much better season in 2025. Some things have to go right this offseason, but none of those things are impossible to imagine. 

There’s still reason for hope.