Musings from Arledge: USC isn't close, and where the Trojans go from here

I said in my Musings from Arledge video last week that I wanted USC to fight this week against Oregon, regardless of the odds. On that front, I think the Trojans came through. They could have quit, especially after the two long touchdowns early; they didn’t. They didn’t always play well, but I do think they played hard. And playing against a much better, highly motivated team in one of the toughest venues in America, maybe that’s all you can ask for.

But it’s disappointing that’s all we can ask for. The final score was more than respectable, but there was a huge chasm between those two teams. USC has some excellent individual players; Oregon is an excellent football team. The Ducks were bigger, more athletic, more aggressive, and, yes, better coached.

It stings to write that last part. I questioned this Ducks staff. It looked to me like a bunch of young, inexperienced guys who could recruit but probably couldn’t coach. I was wrong. Dan Lanning has done a better job instilling a real football culture in Eugene than Lincoln Riley has in Los Angeles. Lanning and his staff have done a better job of scheming and teaching than Lincoln Riley and his staff have. And it showed. 

Before getting into specifics, it’s worth talking about the big picture. We don’t know what Lincoln Riley really thinks about his team or his program. He’s not exactly transparent. So it’s hard to know what to make of his coach speak. He admitted that Oregon was a deeper team (and, he added, a healthier team). He admitted that there are areas on the roster that need to get better. But he also claimed that USC is close: “But, kind of been the theme of the last several weeks is we’re not that far off. I mean, we’re not.”

I don’t think that’s true, and I hope Riley doesn’t truly believe it. USC isn’t close—at least, the Trojans aren’t close to being what Lincoln Riley wants them to be and what Lincoln Riley is getting paid a lot of money to make them be. Oregon was significantly better than USC. They were better on both lines. They were better at linebacker. They were dramatically better in the secondary. They were better at wideout. And while the Ducks made some mistakes—the score might have gotten out of hand otherwise—they were far more disciplined and more comfortable and consistent in their responsibilities. They were better—up and down the roster, and up and down the coaching staff.

USC’s offense is not what any of us expected to see. The Trojans can move the ball and score points, but they’re not consistent, because so much of their success comes from playground ball. Just about all season, Caleb Williams has been unable or unwilling to play within the offense. He’s capable of incredible plays—plays that nobody else in college football can make. He makes some every week. But far too much of the time, he’s running around in circles trying to make something big happen on broken plays. The ability to make big plays when the offense breaks down is hugely valuable, and it’s what makes Caleb Williams such an incredible talent. But you can’t beat good teams in big games playing that way all the time. Yet that’s exactly what USC does.

Sometimes the Trojans have little choice. The offensive line struggles against good defensive fronts, and part of Caleb’s freelancing is due to questionable O-line play. The receivers are also inconsistent. There are too many dropped balls; too many lazy routes. And the most talented receivers on the team—Zachariah Branch and Duce Robinson—are just kids; they’ll be great in time with proper development, but they’re not ready to be stars yet. Other than Marshawn Lloyd, who is pretty consistently excellent, Caleb isn’t always getting a lot of high-level help. He doesn’t freelance all the time of his own volition. 

But some of that freelancing is just Caleb doing what Caleb likes to do, what he’s so good at. There are times when USC would be better off if Caleb would get the ball out on time and throw it into small windows. He’s capable of doing it. We’ve seen him do it at times, including that touchdown pass to Brenden Rice. But he doesn’t do it very often. And he’s going to have to, because that’s what football at the highest level is all about. He will learn to play that way, or the NFL will eat him up. And Caleb’s inability to protect the football this season has also been a huge problem. His fumbles each of the last two weeks were daggers to the heart.

Caleb Williams is the most talented college quarterback I’ve ever seen. I think he has heart. I think he’ll develop into a very good pro. USC may never have another quarterback as gifted. I’d be surprised if USC ever has another quarterback who is close to as good at making something out of nothing. But, increasingly, I think it’s likely that USC will have other quarterbacks who play more effectively within the offensive system, and right now, USC badly needs consistency within the offensive system that they’re not getting from anybody—including Caleb Williams.

And what’s left to say about the defense? Alex Grinch simply could not do his job effectively and had to go. What comes next is hard. There was no reason to believe that two interim DC’s would solve the problems with USC’s defense in six days, especially when USC has problems just about everywhere defensively. 

Over the offseason, Lincoln Riley laid much of the blame on the lack of talent in the front seven. He was right about a lack of talent there. But that’s not the only place. USC’s secondary is playing about as badly as a secondary can. Broken coverages are the norm; these guys act like they don’t have any idea where they are supposed to be. And all the fundamentals are bad. They take bad angles. They don’t play the ball very well. And there is a distressing lack of physicality. When an All-American safety has a chance to hammer an opposing receiver as he’s in the act of catching the ball and chooses not to, that’s all I need to see. It’s a disaster back there right now. Christian Roland-Wallace has played pretty well at times. I don’t think USC has gotten even decent play from anybody else in that secondary all year. It’s hard to watch.

So where does USC go from here? USC needs to dramatically upgrade the talent on the roster. I don’t know what it is: a lack of NIL money (or the unwillingness to use it), a lack of faith by high school players in USC’s program and staff, a lack of recruiting effort or skill. I don’t know. But USC doesn’t recruit like an elite program right now, and you can’t be an elite program without elite talent. Oregon keeps kicking USC’s butt on the recruiting trail, and Oregon has a lot more good football players than USC does as a result. Compared to Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, and others, it’s not close. Lincoln Riley either figures out the recruiting issues right now, or he doesn’t have a chance.

USC also needs a much better coaching staff. There are some keepers. Kiel McDonald is very good. I think Josh Henson is good. It takes years to build an offense line; Helton left very little in the cupboard, and you see this year what happens when you try to plug in a bunch of new guys from the transfer portal. Henson has recruited a lot of O linemen over the last two years, and I think there are some excellent prospects in those groups. USC will still need to figure out how to land that elite left tackle that they’ve been missing out on (assuming Elijah Paige isn’t at that level); Josh Conerly and Francis Mauigoa could have really helped this roster. But I think Henson is probably a quality guy and a coach I’d want to keep.

After that, I’m open to persuasion, but I just don’t know. I do know there aren’t a lot of guys on this staff who should feel comfortable right now. USC has just underperformed in so many areas. Defensively, Grinch’s scheme was a huge problem. But USC defenders not knowing what they’re supposed to be doing and being so deficient in the fundamentals is also a problem, and that’s not all on Grinch. There’s not a single unit on this defense that has played well. 

And let’s be honest about something else: as much as USC needs to improve its recruiting, it’s hard to feel good about the coaching of USC’s best recruiter. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a bigger gulf between an assistant coach’s reputation with recruits (who often call Donte Williams the best defensive backs coach in the country) and the product he puts on the field, year after year. If Donte really is a great coach instead of just being a great recruiter, he does a better job than Dexter at hiding the evidence. With rare exceptions like Mekhi Blackmon last year, USC’s corners haven’t played competently in many years.

The third thing—and it’s just as big as the others—isn’t something that Lincoln Riley can change by replacing some assistants or even paying big NIL money to recruit like the big boys. (Even though both of those things would help.) USC needs a culture overhaul. It needs to play with attitude. It needs a lot more guys who play hard-nosed, physical football. It needs to set an expectation of physical dominance such that it’s simply unacceptable not to aggressively blast a receiver when given the chance, or finish a block, or stand up that offensive lineman at the goal line. They need a lot more guys flying to the ball and less guys standing around tentatively. Some of that is scheme. But some of that is attitude.

Oregon State and Utah don’t recruit better than USC. But their guys play football. They are tough and aggressive. USC still doesn’t play like that. Attitude and culture were the biggest problems throughout the Kiffin, Sark, and Helton eras. And they are still problems now. That starts at the top. It isn’t easy to instill physicality and toughness in a football program, and most coaches don’t know how to do it or aren’t sufficiently committed to it. That’s on Riley. It’s his problem to solve. And unless he figures it out, he will never have better than a second-rate program that frequently scores a lot of points. 

USC played hard against Oregon. Oregon played physical and aggressive against USC. That’s a primary difference in the two programs right now.

I know that’s a lot of stuff that’s not fun to read. It’s not fun to write, either. But what else can you say after four losses in five games, after going from fifth in the country to fifth (maybe) in the Pac-12? If you want optimism divorced from reality, most football programs have official spokespeople for that. That’s not my job.

So it’s time for the Bruins. This season will be a disappointment no matter what happens Saturday. But don’t kid yourself: what happens Saturday matters. It always matters whether you beat UCLA, and as disappointing as 8-4 would be—and it would—just imagine how much worse it will be if USC finishes 7-5 and is swept by the rivals. UCLA is obviously very beatable; they’re downright terrible offensively most weeks. But those guys will come ready to play. They will want this game badly. I just hope USC matches their intensity and desire so we can finish off this season on a high note and get on with a very important off-season rebuilding effort.