Musings from Arledge: USC Spring Game

It’s sometimes hard to know what to do with a spring game. The primary purpose isn’t to win anything; it’s to get better. Which is why we saw all of three plays by Caleb Williams. (I think he has a chance to be pretty good, in case anybody was wondering.)

What we’ve been hearing second-hand throughout the spring is that the defense is competitive with the offense. Competitive would be a great place to be, because USC’s offense will be the best in the country. The offensive line is solid (and will probably be better in the fall than it is now), the receiving room is loaded, and the running backs are going to be a handful. I’ll talk about the young guys in a minute. But one play from Marshawn Lloyd is all I needed to see. That guy is special. And when you take a generational talent in Caleb Williams and surround him with that kind of supporting cast? This will be the best USC offense since 2005. They’re going to humiliate defenses on a regular basis.

The question is whether USC’s defense can be good. I think it will be. That’s a much bigger, stronger, more talented group than last year’s defense. Without watching film – and knowing what we should be looking for – you can only do so much analysis. But the talent level defensively is way up. USC is going to be a serious problem this year for just about anybody. I’m not saying this team will go undefeated; that’s a tall order for any team, and USC has a very difficult back-half of the schedule. I’m just saying that’s going to be a very good football team – I think a top-five football team. And I can’t wait.

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A few odds and ends:

That freshman class looks really good. The running backs looked every bit as good as we were led to believe. Zach Branch will be a major weapon from day one and will be an All-American before he’s done. And don’t forget Christian Pierce, Sam Greene, Elijah Paige, Tackett Curtis…. This is a really exciting group of young players. Some of these guys will make a difference this year. But even the guys who are stuck behind a lot of talented veterans this year have a chance to be special down the road. This class is going to win a lot of football games at USC.

Don’t sleep on Raleek Brown. He looks like he’s grown up over the last few months. He outfought Domani Jackson for the ball on a pass downfield, and his quick cut and move upfield on that short pass was a thing of beauty. Brown is a weapon, and he’s going to see the ball.

I’m thrilled for Solomon Tuliaupupu. It was so long ago, it’s easy to forget that he was a big-time, national recruit. But years of injuries had him sitting on the back shelf. I doubted he would ever contribute. But he’s showing what hard work and a lot of heart can do. Solo is going to play, and I think he’s going to play very well on a much-improved defensive line.

For all the talk about Korey Foreman moving to defensive line, he sure played a lot as a stand-up edge rusher. 

If you’re not sold that USC is going to be a very good football team this year, listen to Lincoln Riley. The guy is positively giddy about the current state of affairs. This is a coach who thinks his team can compete for a national championship.

I think he’s right. As long as Superman stays healthy. Miller Moss is a good player. Malachi Nelson may one day be a great player. But the gap between Caleb Williams and his backups is enormous. And that’s not a knock on those other guys. The gap between Caleb Williams and every other quarterback in college football is enormous. The gap between Caleb Williams and most NFL quarterbacks is enormous. It’s not an accident that he won the Heisman and is set to be the top overall pick in the NFL draft. He is just different – the most-talented quarterback ever to play at USC, and the closest thing you’re going to find to Patrick Mahomes. He has a much better surrounding cast this year, and that will make a huge difference. But never forget: anybody who wants to beat USC has to find a way to stop Caleb Williams. Good luck.

One other thing caught my eye yesterday. Lincoln Riley was asked in the post-game press conference what he could do this year in spring that he couldn’t do last year. The quote below is my best impression of a court reporter. I may have gotten a word or two wrong, but this is essentially what he said:

“Last year we’re teaching them not just playbook but how to practice. This is actually, like, yes we hit, like we compete, like every day the NCAA lets us have pads on, we are going to be in full pads and we are going to knock the hell out of each other. It’s the only way you get better playing football.”

You will rarely hear a football coach criticize his predecessor directly. The quote above is about as close as you’ll ever get. Riley had to teach his player to practice. He had to help them understand the necessity of practicing hard, with physicality. When I think of what USC tolerated from You Know Who for so many years, I can only shake my head. Carthage lasted way, way too long.

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The transfer portal giveth, and the transfer portal taketh away. 

Courtland Ford is, as you know, on his way to what he hopes will be greener pastures. I’m disappointed. Ford is a good player, and I have heard only good things about his work ethic and character. I wish he would have stayed at SC, and I wish him the best wherever he lands.

But this is college football today, and USC gets far more from the transfer portal than it loses. The truth is that the guys who leave usually leave for a reason. Ford believes he is an elite left tackle. I’m not convinced of that, and I don’t think Lincoln Riley and Josh Henson were convinced of that either, or else Ford would probably still be on the roster. I hope Ford gets a chance to prove everybody wrong. 

Just remember Trojan fans, the difference between an irreplaceable player and a good player. Courtland Ford is in the latter category, and there’s no shame in that. (Caleb Williams, of course, is an example of a player in the former category.) A program like USC can almost always find a good player in the portal. If Lincoln Riley feels the need to supplement offensive depth, he’ll be able to do that. So am I disappointed? Sure. Am I worried? Absolutely not.

Oh, and by the way, I don’t think the transfer portal is done giving. You’ve probably heard the rumors, and if they’re true, USC is about to get much bigger and much better up front. And I’m willing to bet USC lands some guys in this portal window that are not yet on the radar. The talent difference between the fall of 2023 and the fall of 2021 will be similar to the talent difference between Lennon-McCartney and your average street busker.   

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Anybody reading this must already know that USC announced a new NIL program this weekend. I don’t know how things will shake out in the NIL world. At some point, new rules might change the way the game is played. The market itself will likely settle down at some point; I don’t think we’ll see many $13-million deals to high school quarterbacks like the one that blew up between Florida and Jaden Rashada. But we will, at least for the short term, continue to see some programs that offer signing bonuses that tip the recruiting scales, and USC will continue to be on the wrong side of those arrangements. USC is simply not going to play that game, and that means programs like Oregon will continue to be a thorn in USC’s side with recruits who are tempted (not unreasonably) by big checks. (Just say no, kids!)

But I do think this is a temporary problem. If Oregon gets left in a stripped-down Pac-12, playing games on the CW in a conference that everybody knows is second-rate, their ability to beat USC in head-to-head recruiting battles will diminish. This is especially true if USC’s new NIL programs show a track record of success. Remember, USC does not have to offer X dollars for a signature on a letter of intent if USC’s NIL track record is top-notch. USC can simply tout the opportunities that its current and recent players have had, and if those opportunities are better than what most other schools are offering, the Trojans will be fine. Right now, USC doesn’t have a track record of NIL success to sell. In two or three years, it might.

Of course, in two or three years there might be enforceable rules that change the way the game is played. In the quickly evolving world of college football, where NIL and what amounts to free agency are changing everything we thought we knew about the game, two or three years is an eternity.

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On that issue, I’m glad USC is raising money for NIL. You can’t compete with the big dogs if you don’t take NIL seriously. And I think this 55 Club will be an important part of that.

But to the person who is writing their promotional materials: do we really want to say that the 55 Club is dedicated to “ensuring intimate experiences and relations with coaches, current players, and former players”?  

That sounds kinda gross. I’d love to have lunch with Lincoln Riley. It would be cool to hang out with Marcus and Ronnie. But do I want to have intimate experiences and relations with those guys? Umm, no. Let’s choose our words a little more carefully next time. If it sounds like something you might see in an ad for an escort service – just guessing! – take another crack with different language.

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We’ve talked before about how USC’s schedule is extremely difficult this year. The first half of the year should be a cake walk, although college football almost always involves near upsets in games you don’t expect to be competitive. But the second half of the schedule is brutal. Part of the reason is the crazy number of top quarterbacks in the Pac-12 conference this season: four of the top six quarterbacks in the country according to ESPN.

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I’m a big fan of best-of lists. It gives us something to argue about during the offseason. So I was thrilled to see that some group called College Football Report tweeted their list of college football’s best rivalries.

It’s easy to say that these lists are subjective, and there is some subjectivity to them. But they’re not entirely subjective. If somebody says Iowa-Iowa State is a better rivalry than USC-Notre Dame or Auburn-Alabama you can reject that opinion as objectively stupid. Great rivalries are great for reasons that should be obvious even to those who live outside the rivalry and its passions. 

What jumps out at me is the clear separation between the top five and the rest of the list. CFR’s top five are Ohio State-Michigan, Texas-OU, Auburn-Alabama, USC-Notre Dame, and Army-Navy. I might quibble with the order here, but I don’t quibble that these are the top five. I do think Texas-OU – great that it is – probably is too high at number two.  For most of my lifetime, Texas wasn’t OU’s best rivalry game; Nebraska was. I’m not convinced that what has traditionally been OU’s second-best rivalry can also be the nation’s second-best rivalry. And while OU and Texas have both lost a primary rival as a result of re-alignment (and pettiness: see Texas-Texas A&M), it’s not clear to me that this means the rivalry both schools kept can jump into second place. I’d put it fourth.

I won’t argue with Michigan-Ohio State number one. I won’t argue with Alabama-Auburn in the top three. I’ve already made clear my thoughts on USC-Notre Dame, which I still think is college football’s greatest rivalry. And Army-Navy clearly belongs in the top five. That game hasn’t had national significance in terms of titles or Heismans in a very long time. But the tradition is second-to-none, and any rivalry game that has featured Dwight Eisenhower, Omar Bradley, Bull Halsey, and a great many legitimate American heroes earns its place in the top five.

There’s a clear separation between the top five and the rest. The Egg Bowl gets the nod at number eight. And I’m sure those teams hate each other. But does anybody else in the country care? West Virginia-Pitt and Utah-BYU are eleven and twelve, just ahead of USC-UCLA. And while the Bruins have worked hard to be irrelevant for a very long time, that ordering strikes me as crazy. Not only does nobody nationally care about those other two games, but I’d be surprised if your average college football fan can even remember a single game from either rivalry. I will watch almost all of the great rivalry games if they don’t conflict with a USC game. I’ll watch Notre Dame-Michigan (number 19?!) and Alabama-LSU (25?!). I can remember plenty of big moments from both of those series, as I can with Florida State-Miami. But I couldn’t tell you one thing about BYU-Utah. I won’t postpone a trip to the grocery store to watch that rivalry. Those teams may hate each other for geographical, cultural, and even religious reasons. But if the rest of the country doesn’t care, it can’t be ranked above Michigan-Notre Dame or USC-UCLA. 

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This week on Musings from Arledge Solo Edition, I interview Dr. Jeremy Abramson, a professor at USC’s Information Sciences Institute who studies, teaches, and writes on sports analytics. We talk about the ultimate triumph of the math geeks in sport, how analytics can improve decision-making in college football, and how the number crunchers might, just might, even save football itself. Please check it out.