Musings from Arledge: What we've learned about USC through two games

I’ve spent the last two weeks in England. Being a USC football fan in England is a little like being a UCLA football fan in LA: you might care about what your team is doing, but nobody else does.

Still, thanks to Larry Scott’s gift that keeps on giving, I was able to watch both games for free via YouTube. I just needed to stay up until 4:30 am or so. (That’s right; most of the households in America can’t get the Pac-12 Network, but anybody outside of the U.S. can get it for free over the internet. So west coast fans who can’t watch your team here, the obvious solution is to move overseas. I think Oregon Ducks fans should go first.)  

But can you tell anything from two games that are essentially scrimmages, two blowout wins over teams that just don’t have the personnel to match up with anybody in the top 25?  

Maybe.

Games like Nevada don’t tell you if you’re a national title contender. Blowing out Nevada can be fun, but it doesn’t exactly make you special. As the Sooner fan discovered when he went to the family reunion, he’s not the only one who can date his cousin. And USC’s not the only team in the country that could embarrass Nevada.

By the way, I actually don’t know if that happens to every Sooner fan—there’s no scientific survey supporting it—but I feel pretty comfortable that it happens a lot. Regardless, while crushing Nevada doesn’t prove you’re a contender, you can certainly prove you’re not a contender in a game like that. In the recent Years of Darkness and Pain, when we had to wait to watch the film to know why we sucked, USC frequently had to go deep into the second half to put away teams that like Nevada and San Jose State. This year, USC didn’t immediately disqualify themselves from discussions of the elite teams in the country as in has in years past. So we at least have that.  

And there many be a few other things we’ve learned.

First, Caleb Williams is amazing. Okay, that’s cheating; that dude was already amazing, and we already knew it. But some of the plays he has made in the first two games—the flat-footed 50-yard throw off a fumbled snap; the completion to Dorian Singer when Caleb was sprinting to the right sideline and threw a deep ball just before stepping out of bounds, perfectly placing it over Singer’s shoulder; the touchdown pass to Brenden Rice where Caleb ran around in circles in the pocket waiting for Rice to come open—these are demonstrations of freakish athleticism. Caleb Williams has a very powerful magic known only to a few. Patrick Mahomes could make those plays. Aaron Rodgers could, or at least a younger Aaron Rodgers could. Josh Allen probably could. I’m not sure anybody else in the world can. Caleb Williams is that good. There are other good college quarterbacks this year, many of them in the Pac-12. Bo Nix, who for some reason is now on a giant billboard only blocks from my home in Dallas, is a good player. But he’s not close to Williams. Nobody is. And anybody who wants to beat USC has to beat Caleb Williams. That won’t be easy.

Williams is a gunslinger who makes plays that nobody else can make, plays that mere mortals wouldn’t even think about attempting. He’s also a rare form of gunslinger, because he isn’t careless with the ball. He isn’t Brett Favre. True, he is careless about sacks sometimes, and because he’s always looking to make the big play, USC’s offense can waste drives when Williams attempts multiple low-percentage passes and gets USC behind the sticks.  

But there’s no point in complaining about any of that. Yes, Williams sometimes holds the ball too long and tries to do too much. That sometimes leads to a punt. But he’s a unique, once-in-a-generation talent who sometimes holds the ball too long, and he does that because often when he holds the ball too long, amazing things happen. So I just roll with it. If you’re going to take the 98% that’s great, you’re also going to have to take the 2% that’s not.  

We can also see—as expected—that he’s surrounded by talent. The receiving corps is remarkable, and as the freshmen continue to develop, the Trojans receivers will only become more devastating. They are all elusive; they can all fly.  It must be a frightening thing for opposing defenses. When a talent like Zachariah Branch isn’t the top option for an offense, that offense is officially a problem for everybody.

And it would be one thing if USC only had a passing game. But the backs are also very good; Austin Jones is solid, MarShawn Lloyd is exactly what we hoped he would be—and don’t forget that block downfield for Tahj Washington!—Darwin Barlow can really play even if he doesn’t get to very often, and we’re seeing why Kiel McDonald and Lincoln Riley spend time recruiting running backs out of Texas instead of taking guys closer to home. Quinten Joyner already looks like he could start and rush for 1,200 yards.

The line looked fantastic against a terrible Nevada team, and I think they will perform well against everybody on the schedule. They should only get better as they continue to get experience together. Offensive lines need to gel, which takes reps as a unit, and these guys haven’t had a lot of reps together yet. By midseason, I expect this to be a very good group.

Simply put, this offense is loaded and always a threat to score, just as we thought it would be. It has great talent, including one of the all-time great talents at the most important position, and it has the best offensive coach in the country. These guys can light up the scoreboard on anybody, and it’s going to take a huge day from the opposing offense to have a chance against these Trojans.

But what about the rest of the squad?

Turning to the special teams, on the whole, I think we can feel good here as well. USC’s coverage units haven’t been tested by a team with elite athletes. USC hasn’t had to kick a field goal or punt under pressure. These tests will come later. But we’re going to see a lot of bad punts and kickoffs, because it’s already clear that kicking to Zachariah Branch is quickly approaching “homemade Titanic submarine” on the list of the worst ideas of 2023. Reggie is the usual comparison because they are both Trojans. But the kid looks like Rocket Ismael to me, and anybody who played those Notre Dame teams in the late 80’s should remember how terrifying that was.  

So that leaves us with the big question—as we’ve known all along— and it’s one we can’t answer yet: can this defense do its part to get USC into the playoff. The opener was a disappointment. But that was only the first game, and first games are notoriously difficult, even for many championships teams. San Jose State’s quarterback is also very experienced and pretty good. And when you’re intentionally playing as many players as possible throughout the game, you should expect some inconsistency and mistakes. So we don’t want to overreact to the opener even though I was displeased and expressed as much on the Inside the Trojans’ Huddle show.

The Nevada game was a much better performance, but it came against a completely overmatched opponent, and even in that game USC gave up two huge pass plays that were worrisome. So the jury is still out.

But here’s what I think we already know. USC is much bigger, stronger, deeper, and better upfront. The Trojans have some guys that can shed blocks, and they have some guys who can move. This wasn’t the case over the last few years. Bear Alexander’s absolute mauling of his man on the short-yardage play Saturday was an eye-opener. What Bear did to that guy is illegal in 17 states. It’s been a long time since USC had a force of nature in the middle that could collapse an offensive line and blow everything up. Tuli was an excellent player, but he wasn’t that kind of player. It’s hard to remember when USC had that kind of player. Leonard Williams?  

And this isn’t a one-man unit. USC has size and experience, and they also have three freshmen who will be dominant in two years. The recruiting rankings may not have seen that in the case of Elijah Hughes and Sam Greene, but a lot of us saw those recruiting videos and realized that anybody who projects Matayo ahead of those two guys just doesn’t know football.  

The linebacking corps is deeper, which is good because we’re already seeing injury issues. Eric Gentry can play when he’s healthy; that guy is a disrupter. I think Mason Cobb will be very good if he stays healthy. The forgotten man, captain Shane Lee, looked really good against Nevada. Raesjon Davis is quick and appears ready to contribute. And it’s just a matter of time and reps before Tackett Curtis becomes not only the best linebacker on the team, but one of the best in the country. It’s inevitable. Now, granted, Gentry is frequently hurt, Lee doesn’t always look as good against athletic offenses, and Curtis is a future superstar, not a current superstar; we don’t know when he will become great. Still, though, it’s much better than in years past, and this group doesn’t have to be amazing for USC to be very good. They just have to be good.

Sounds good so far, right? I think so, too.

But I don’t really know what to do about this secondary. Playing defensive back against modern passing offenses is hard, and everybody is going to get beat sometimes. But the breakdowns on long passes and the penalties are tough to watch because of what they might mean in the future. USC is going to face some of the best passing offenses in the nation. Can that secondary hold up? The honest answer right now is: I just don’t know.

Nor do I know why Alex Grinch insists on putting his defensive backs in such difficult situations. I don’t understand why he loves cover 0 (a man coverage with zero deep safeties), and I really don’t know why he loves cover zero and then doesn’t blitz all of the remaining defenders. If you’re in man with no deep help, you must get quarterback pressure, and you must get it quickly. That’s the benefit of the coverage: you have more rushers than they have blockers. Unless you don’t bring all the rushers. In two of the last three games that call—cover 0 where USC is not blitzing all of the remaining guys—has led to a long touchdown pass. I don’t get it. Why roll the dice in the secondary but not maximize the pressure on the quarterback? It’s a strange mixture of aggressiveness and passivity. Somebody needs to ask Grinch this question. I’m sure he has a reason, and maybe he’s even right. But I don’t understand it, and I hate it.  

The Trojans have made some plays in the secondary, and I still think it’s a talented group. But they need to get far more consistent. There are too many great passing teams on this schedule to have these big breakdowns.

So … the defense looks better. Is it good enough to win a national title? We’ll see. Arizona will test them. Colorado will test them. And the level of difficulty rises exponentially the second half of the year. When you have the Irish, the two Utes, the Huskies, the Ducks, and the Bruins in a very short stretch, you’re going to be playing games against elite offenses and you’re going to be playing at less-than-full strength. Yes, Caleb will Caleb. Those teams have enormous problems of their own defensively. But I don’t want to see games come down to a Korey Foreman interception. It’s bad for my heart.

And right now, I still have reservations about the coaching on the defensive side of the ball. I have none on the other side. Now, Grinch and crew can shut me up very easily. Turn in a couple of good (not great, good) defensive performances against quality offenses, and I’ll shut right up. But they haven’t done that yet.

So it’s on to game three, and USC is taking on some power from the Atlantic coast. Fortunately, we’re at home and the time difference should not be a factor.  

Neither will the opponent. Stanford won its opener against bad competition. They’re young, they’re not very talented, and they haven’t seen what USC has in store for them. I don’t know if we’ll get McKay’s 1,000-point victory—that might be too much to ask—but I do think he’s going to enjoy this one from heaven.  Block David Bailey occasionally, and keep Stanford to a maximum of three 70-yard passes, and it should be a beating.  

Besides, it’s just Stanford: and when has a lousy, underdog Stanford team ever come into the Coliseum and shocked a national-title contender USC squad? Unimaginable, right?