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USC lands inside the Top 20 of the first ESPN FPI ranking of 2025

Erik-McKinneyby:Erik McKinney•06/03/25•

ErikTMcKinney

USC head coach Lincoln Riley on the sideline during a game between the Trojans and Nebraska Cornhuskers
USC head coach Lincoln Riley on the sideline during a game between the Trojans and Nebraska Cornhuskers (acscottphotography/WeAreSC)

There doesn’t seem to be a lot of faith nationally when it comes to the USC Trojans putting together an impressive season this fall coming off a 7-6 finish in 2024. Lincoln Riley’s program has been left out of more Too-Early Top 25 polls than they’ve been included anywhere and the Trojans are virtually never included as a top-20 program.

But the first College Football Power Index ahead of the 2025 season was released by ESPN today and the Trojans are listed at No. 19 overall.

As a reminder on what FPI is, from ESPN: “The FPI is a predictive rating system that estimates each FBS team’s strength (in points per game relative to the national average) on offense, defense and special teams, making adjustments for starters lost, recruiting talent and other personnel changes. Those numbers are then plugged into the schedule, and everything is simulated 20,000 times to track each team’s odds of winning its conference, making the playoff and advancing through to the national title.”

USC’s projected win-loss record in the FPI is 8.3-3.9. The Trojans are also listed with a 93.8% chance to record at least six wins. That seems significantly hire than the early-season betting lines that have USC’s win total number set at 7.5. USC has slight chances to win out and win the Big Ten according to FPI, at 0.3% to win every regular season game and 4.2% chance to win the conference. The Trojans’ also have a top-25 playoff percentage, in at No. 21 overall at 21%.

The numbers continue to think highly of USC’s offense — the Trojans are tied with Tennessee at No. 12 on that side of the ball.

And the numbers also seem to inflate the starting positions for the SEC. After the Big Ten won the past two national championships, the top three teams in ESPN’s FPI are from the SEC — No. 1 Texas, No. 2 Georgia and No. 3 Alabama. Texas A&M is No. 8 and Tennessee is No. 10.

Ten of the top 16 teams in ESPN’s FPI are from the SEC. Surprise.

USC is the No. 5 Big Ten team in the rankings, behind No. 4 Ohio State, No. 5 Penn State, No. 6 Oregon and No. 17 Michigan. The numbers see another strong season from Notre Dame, which sits at No. 7.

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Garry Paskwietz (1966-2019)

Garry Paskwietz was a pioneer in bringing team-specific sports coverage to the internet. He founded WeAreSC in 1998 and was an Emmy winner for his work with Fox Sports West. Always generous with his time, knowledge, and compassion, he touched the lives of countless USC and high school football fans.

Garry Paskwietz