What ESPN's FPI says about USC football: Projected record, national championship odds, strength of schedule, more

ESPN has released its Football Power Index (FPI) ahead of the 2024 college season, and the USC Trojans check in with a Top-25 ranking at No. 18 overall.

ESPN’s FPI, according to the network, is “a power rating that tracks each team’s strength relative to an average FBS squad. Teams are rated on offense, defense and special teams, with the values representing points per game.”

Here’s what FPI says about USC ahead of the 2024 campaign.

Strength of schedule

USC’s schedule is plenty difficult this season, highlighted by a neutral site game against LSU (Sept. 1) to kick off the season, a home game against Notre Dame (Nov. 30) to close the year and road trips to both of last season’s National Championship Game participants in Michigan (Sept. 21) and Washington (Nov. 2).

But there should be a couple of breathers throughout and, according to FPI, the Trojans’ are set to go up against the nation’s 27th-toughest schedule.

That’s a list dominated by the SEC and Big Ten. Not surprisingly, ESPN’s FPI sees nine of the top ten toughest scheduled belonging to SEC programs, including all of the top eight. There are 10 Big Ten teams among the top 25 schedules in the country, giving the Trojans what FPI considers the No. 11 slate in the conference when it comes to schedule strength.

Purdue, UCLA and Washington are all bunched at the top of the Big Ten, at Nos. 11-13 nationally.

USC’s top-rated opponent in FPI might come as a surprise. Penn State is in at No. 6, the third-ranked Big Ten team behind Oregon and Ohio State. Notre Dame is just behind them at No. 7. Michigan comes in at No. 12 and LSU is No. 13.

Looking at the rest of USC’s schedule:

No. 31 – Washington
No. 39 – Wisconsin
No. 40 – UCLA
No. 41 – Nebraska
No. 45 – Rutgers
No. 46 – Maryland
No. 61 – Minnesota
No. 102 – Utah State

Overall ranking and USC’s projected record

FPI projects USC’s regular-season record to be 7.1-5.1, which is consistent with the win total projections we’ve seen list the Trojans anywhere from 7 to 7.5.

The schedule strength dings USC’s bowl game changes according to FPI. The Trojans have just a 76.7% change to reach six wins and gain bowl eligibility, which is less than both Iowa and Rutgers in the Big Ten.

Chances to win the Big Ten

The team with the best percentage to win their conference according to FPI is Liberty in Conference USA. The No. 2 team is Oregon, at 37.5% to win the Big Ten.

Ohio State (25.7%) and Penn State (22.2%) are the clear Nos. 2 and 3 in the conference. Michigan is No. 4 at 7.7% and USC is No. 5 at 2.9% (less than Iowa State’s changes of winning the Big 12).

USC’s College Football Playoff odds

Going further into the numbers, Georgia and Oregon are the only two programs given more than a 75% chance to make the playoff. USC is No. 27 at 13.4%, just behind Auburn and ahead of Oklahoma State.

Things drop fairly precipitously after that. USC is given a 1.1% change to make the national championship and a 0.3% chance to win it.

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