College Football Rankings: Predicting the AP Poll Top 25 with Washington jumping Florida State, all sorts of shakeup, new entries

Week 12 saw the Top 5 teams all remain undefeated, but the penultimate week of the 2023 season still featured all sorts of crazy games and (unfortunately) too many quarterback injuries. 

Florida State’s Jordan Travis suffered a terrible leg injury, which could shakeup the College Football Playoff race, while Dillion Gabriel, Drew Allar and Graham Mertz all went down, too. 

The reigning two-time champion Georgia Bulldogs proved plenty capable of going on the road by smashing Tennessee, while Michigan displayed some concerning warts in close-call against Maryland. 

Elsewhere, Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels made their latest cases for the Heisman Trophy, while Iowa should crack the rankings after winning the Big Ten West for the second time in three seasons. There’s also plenty of movement in the backend of the rankings, too.  Oh, and could Ohio State jump the Wolverines before “The Game” next weekend? Might Washington leap Florida State?

Here’s how I think the new AP Top 25 will look come Sunday:

1. Georgia (Last week: 1)

The Bulldogs allowed a 75-yard touchdown on the game’s opening snap, as Jaylen Wright sprinted to the house untouched to give Tennessee a 7-0 lead in a blink. 

It didn’t matter. 

Georgia calmly responded with the game’s next 24 points, ultimately cruising to a 38-10 win for its 28th-straight victory. The Bulldogs became the first team to go unbeaten in conference play for three straight seasons since the SEC expanded in 1992.  The Vols had no answer for quarterback Carson Beck (298 yards and three touchdowns) or Dillion Bell, a sophomore wideout who starred in replacement of the banged-up Ladd McConkey. Bell threw for a touchdown on a half-back pass and added five receptions for 90 yards and a score. The Bulldogs have been a machine all season and they were again money on third downs, converting 9 of 13 chances. 

Meanwhile, UGA’s defense held Wright to just 15 yards the rest of the game. The Vols were only 2 of 11 on third downs, and finished with just 277 total yards.

2. Michigan (Last week: 2)

The Wolverines became the first college football program to 1,000 wins, surviving a stinker to beat Maryland 31-24. Michigan played its worst game of the 2023 season, allowing multiple explosive passing plays while being held to just 291 yards of total offense. 

JJ McCarthy was shaky all afternoon, throwing a terrible red zone interception and finishing the day just 12 of 23 for 141 yards. 

The Wolverines’ offense was stopped multiple times in the second half, giving the Terps a chance to win the game, but Mike Sainristril (two picks), Kenneth Grant (one sack, pressure for safety) and the rest of the Maize & Blue defense made enough plays for Michigan to remain undefeated ahead of its showdown with Ohio State next weekend. 

We know Jim Harbaugh won’t be on the sidelines against the Buckeyes, but will more Michigan staffers be impacted by the continued release of news surrounding the program’s alleged sign-stealing scandal?

3. Ohio State (Last week: 3)

The Buckeyes have delivered almost mirror-image performances the last two weeks, looking primed and ready for their showdown with rival Michigan next weekend. 

After demolishing Michigan State 38-3, Ohio State smoked the Minnesota Gophers 37-3, overcoming a bit of a sleepy start before catching fire in the third quarter. 

In a 13-0 game, Ohio State came out of halftime with a 75-yard TreVeyon Henderson touchdown run on its opening play. After a Minnesota strip-sack fumble, Marvin Harrison scored a 4-yard touchdown reception just minutes later to give the Buckeyes a four-touchdown lead. Henderson rushed for 146 yards and two scores, and Ohio State’s outburst allowed the Buckeyes to rest a bunch of starters in the fourth quarter. 

Ohio State’s defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown in three weeks, and held the Gophers to just 159 total yards — with two takeaways and seven tackles for loss. 

4. Washington (Last week: 5)

On a nasty, rainy night in Corvallis — the Huskies, now winners of 18 straight — outlasted Oregon State 22-20 in an unexpected defensive slobber knocker. The conditions certainly played a major factor in both offenses struggling, with the Huskies failing to gain even 275 yards in the victory. Michael Penix Jr. was just 13 of 28 for 162 yards and two touchdowns, as Washington was led by a defense that has been questioned all season. 

The Huskies picked off DJ Uiagalelei twice and forced the transfer quarterback into an errant pass on 4th-and-2 to seal the win. They held the Beavers to just 3 of 12 on third down, and despite allowing some big Damien Martinez runs, they had seven tackles for loss.

While the win wasn’t pretty, Washington helped its resume, adding another Top 25 CFP victory — its fourth on the season.

5. Florida State (Last week: 4)

The Seminoles found themselves down 13-0 to FCS North Alabama after the first quarter, only to score 52 unanswered points to win their 11th-straight game of the season to stay undefeated. 

Yet the story of the game was the scary injury to senior quarterback Jordan Travis, who suffered what looked like a gruesome leg injury requiring an immediate air-cast and ambulance off the field. Junior backup Tate Rodemaker replaced Travis and threw for 217 yards and two touchdowns on 12 of 23 passing, but Florida State mostly leaned on its ground game without its starting quarterback (248 yards and five rushing touchdowns). 

The ‘Noles had three rushing scores by three different players in the second quarter, and CJ Campbell Jr. later added a 70-yard sprint in the fourth. Rodemaker tossed a pair of touchdowns after halftime, including a 24-yard strike to Keon Coleman. 

The question now is what is Rodemaker is capable of as Florida State hopes to win an ACC title and make the College Football Playoff? Can he help lead the Seminoles to wins over Florida and Louisville?

6. Oregon (Last week: 6)

The Ducks hit Arizona State with a haymaker of punches early, scoring six touchdowns in the first half to pave the way for a 49-13 win. Bo Nix was just playing pitch-and-catch, with all six scores coming off the right arm of the budding Heisman Trophy favorite. 

Nix finished with 404 yards passing in just two quarters — with an astounding 14 passing plays over 16 yards. He had touchdown throws of 23, 49, 45 and 71 before watching the rest of the blowout from the bench in the second half. Nix now has 35 touchdown passes to just two interceptions on the season.

Troy Franklin (eight receptions for 128 yards and two scores) was one of four Oregon receivers with at least 78 yards and a touchdown.

The Ducks’ defense pitched a first-half shutout, too, and looks ready for perhaps the final Civil War for the foreseeable future against Oregon State.

7. Texas (Last week: 7)

The Longhorns passed their latest test, winning 26-16 at Iowa State despite playing their B- game for as many times in the last three weeks. Steve Sarkisian has now won 10 games for the first time in his career, as Texas sits alone atop the Big 12 standings heading into its season-finale against Texas Tech. 

The Longhorns had a pair of touchdowns taken off the board due to penalties, and quarterback Quinn Ewers struggled to find a rhythm despite finishing with 281 yards and two scores (both off play-action passes in the second half).

Freshman tailback CJ Baxter did fill in admirably for the injured Jonathon Brooks, going for 115 and a score on 20 carries. 

Texas’ defense did come up with some key stops and timely plays, blocking a PAT for a two-point conversion and holding Iowa State to just nine yards rushing. They had three sacks and picked off Rocco Becht once. 

8. Alabama (Last week: 8)

After clinching the SEC West last week, the Crimson Tide unloaded on FCS Chattanooga — with eight different players scoring a touchdown in a 66-10 rout. 

Jalen Milroe was a crisp 13 of 16 for 197 yards and three scores — connecting on a 56-yard strike to Jermaine Burton on the first play from scrimmage as a teaser of what was to come. Burton caught a 44-yard pass and a 6-yard touchdown in the first half, as he and Milroe gave way to the backups the entire second half. 

The Tide rolled up more than 300 yards rushing, and they held the Mocs to just 233 total yards and 4 of 14 on third downs. The second half was a glimpse into future, with 5-star freshmen Caleb Downs (a fantastic 85-yard punt return score), Justice Haynes (five carries for 42 yards and two scores) and Richard Young (first-career score) all finding the end zone.

Backup quarterback Ty Simpson saw his most action since Week 2 against South Florida, going 4 of 6 for 50 yards passing. Simpson ripped off a 78-yard scramble for what should’ve been a 79-yard touchdown only to flip the ball in celebration just before crossing the end zone. 

9. Louisville (Last week: 9)

The Cardinals clinched a spot in the ACC Championship, as Jack Plummer threw three touchdowns to lead Louisville to a 38-31 seesaw win over Miami. 

With under four minutes remaining, Plummer connected with Kevin Coleman, who raced 58 yards for the game-winning score after a pair of ‘Canes defensive backs ran into one another.

Louisville was able to overcome some major kicking issues (a missed 30-yard field goal and a blocked extra point) and the team’s worst defensive performance of the season (7.3 yards per play allowed, 486 yards) to move to 10-1 in Jeff Brohm’s first season back at his alma mater. 

While they remain a longshot to crack the College Football Playoff field, they’ll host rival Kentucky next weekend and then play Florida State in Charlotte for the conference championship. The Cardinals look likely to play in the Orange Bowl. 

10. Missouri (Last week: 11)

The Tigers survived a real scare against Florida, converting a 4th-and-17 inside the final 40 seconds to help set up Harrison Mevis’ game-winning field goal. 

Brady Cook completed passes of 27, 11 and 11 yards to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, as the Tigers won 33-31 to move to 9-2. Cook threw for 326 yards, but Missouri was again led by the brilliance of Cody Schrader (148 rushing yards and a score) and Luther Burden (nine catches for 158). 

Fresh off of smashing Tennessee, Mizzou’s run defense had little answers for Florida’s ground game, allowing over 250 yards and two touchdowns. The Tigers failed to get key stops in the fourth quarter, but they were bailed out by Florida mismanaging the clock on its would-be go-ahead field goal. The Gators ran out of bounds on third down, keeping key seconds on the clock that Cook used to setup the Tigers’ kick.

The rest of the projected AP Top 25:

11. Penn State (Last week: 12)

Penn State slogged its way past Rutgers, needing a pair of 4th quarter touchdowns to put away the Knights 27-6. 

The Nittany Lions, which fired OC Mike Yurcich after the loss to Michigan last weekend, displayed little offensive rhythm with a new play-caller, but they did notably lose starting quarterback Drew Allar early in the third quarter to an apparent shoulder injury. The sophomore suffered a big hit on run the previous play, and sat out the rest of the game. Head coach James Franklin said he didn’t believe Allar’s injury was “significant.”

Backup Beau Pribula replaced Allar, immediately ripping off a 39-yard run on his first snap. The dual-threat quarterback was almost exclusively asked to hand-off or run the ball (eight carries for 71 yards), though, attempting just a single pass for nine yards. 

Kaytron Allen rushed for two touchdowns for the first time this season, and the Nittany Lions’ defense forced a trio of takeaways and had four sacks and seven tackles for loss. 

12. Ole Miss (Last week: 13)

With a short week on deck ahead of Thursday’s Egg Bowl against in-state rival Mississippi State, the Rebels slept-walked their way past Louisiana-Monroe for a 35-3 win.

They held just a 7-3 lead at halftime, but quarterback Jaxson Dart heated up in the third quarter with three passing touchdowns. 

Dart finished the game 24 of 31 for 310 yards. Backup Spencer Sanders, who had to replace Dart last weekend when the junior was knocked out of the game in Ole Miss’ blowout loss to Georgia, came on in the 4th quarter and threw a 58-yard touchdown. 

At 9-2, the Rebels have a real opportunity to record just their second 10-win regular season in school history. They main in position for a potential New Year’s Six bowl berth, too.

13. Oklahoma (Last week: 14)

Backed by an opportunistic defense that forced three turnovers, the Sooners outlasted BYU 31-24 despite losing starting quarterback Dillion Gabriel to an “upper body injury” just before halftime. 

Oklahoma was forced to burn the redshirt of 5-star freshman Jackson Arnold, who came in and went 5 of 9 for 33 yards with 24 yards rushing. Gabriel, who scored eight touchdowns a week ago against West Virginia, was dealing before the injury, throwing for 191 yards and two scores. 

The Sooners’ offense was mostly held in check without Gabriel, but the defense harassed BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff into a slew of mistakes that proved the difference. The Cougars ran the ball for over 200 yards, but Retzlaff threw a back-breaking 100-yard pick-six. 

After responding with a 12-yard rushing touchdown to tie the game, Retzlaff fumbled on a sack to set up Oklahoma’s game-winning touchdown — a 16-yard run by tailback Gavin Sawchuk, who had 100 yards on the day. While the odds are long, Oklahoma remains alive for a potential spot in the Big 12 Championship.

14. Oregon State (Last week: 10)

Inside the final 90 seconds, the Beavers had the ball with a chance to upset No. 5 Washington, but their offensive line couldn’t protect quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, who was harassed into multiple errant throws including a wild toss on 4th down. 

Uiagalelei threw a pair of interceptions on the night, as the Beavers couldn’t overcome a handful of sloppy self-inflicted mistakes.

They snapped the ball over the head of their punter, which resulted in a safety — and the scoring difference in the game. Wideout Anthony Gould also fumbled a pass that set up a Michael Penix touchdown run. 

Damien Martinez was the offense for the Beavers, going for 123 rushing yards and two scores. Now at 8-3 and out of the Pac-12 title race, Oregon State will look to play spoiler against Oregon next weekend.

15. LSU (Last week: 15)

Jayden Daniels offered his latest Heisman Trophy highlight reel, torching Georgia State for over 500 total yards and six touchdowns in LSU’s 56-14 romp. 

The senior led the Tigers to eight touchdown drives on the eight possessions — throwing for 413 yards and four scores while adding 96 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.

Early on, LSU needed all of Daniels’ heroics, as the Tigers found themselves tied with the Panthers at 14-all. 

They then rattled off 21 straight points to end the first half to separate for an easy win ahead of their SEC finale against Texas A&M next weekend. In a stat hard to believe — Daniels has accounted for over 1,100 total yards and 13 touchdowns alone in the last two weeks. 

16. Tulane (Last week: 17)

Michael Pratt threw for three touchdowns and 252 yards in a 24-8 win to keep the Green Wave undefeated in AAC play and atop the conference standings.

Since losing at Ole Miss in Week 2, Tulane has won nine straight games and is still in line to be the Group of 5 representative for the New Year’s Six bowl game. 

Pratt became the school’s all-time passing leader in the win, with head coach Willie Fritz calling the senior the “greatest QB in Tulane history.”

Tulane will host UTSA, which is also 7-0 in conference play, on Friday in what could be the first of two games to decide the league title. 

17. Arizona (Last week: 19)

The Wildcats splattered Utah for their fifth-straight win — and fourth against a Top 25 team — racing out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter en route to a 42-18 rout. 

Arizona scored on a trick play to ignite the action, with star wideout Tetairoa McMillan catching a backward lateral from quarterback Noah Fifta and throwing a 21-yard touchdown to a wide-open receiver.

Fifta also tossed a pair of scores, and former Wildcats starter Jayden de Laura came on to throw a 51-yard touchdown to McMillan inside the final minute of the game. 

The Wildcats weren’t all that great defensively, actually getting sightly out-gained 453 to 443. But while Bryson Barnes passed for 320 yards, he was picked off twice and sacked three times. Arizona moved to 8-3 — its best season since 2014.

18. Notre Dame (Last week: 20)

Welcome back, Sam Hartman. The former Wake Forest quarterback had his best game in two months, torching his former team with 277 yards and four touchdowns in the Irish’s 45-7 victory.  The FBS’ active all-time leader in yards and touchdowns hadn’t passed for a score in Notre Dame’s last two games, but after Wake Forest knotted up the game at 7-all early in the second quarter, Hartman led four touchdown drives (three passing) over the next quarter+ to turn a tie game in a laugher. 

The Irish conclude their regular season against Stanford next weekend, and while a New Year’s Six Bowl remains possible albeit unlikely, Notre Dame is rumored to potentially play LSU in a bowl game.  

19. Oklahoma State (Last week: 19)

The Cowboys responded to last weekend’s no-show against UCF, keeping their Big 12 Championship hopes alive with a 43-30 comeback win at Houston. 

Both Alan Bowman and Ollie Gordon shook off slow starts to power the Pokes to over 501 yards, as Oklahoma State rallied from a 23-9 deficit to win by nearly two touchdowns with 27 unanswered points thanks to a cadre of mistakes by the Cougars (interception, penalties and a safety). 

It looked ugly early for the Pokes, though, as Bowman threw a pick-six on the Cowboys’ second drive. He shook off the turnover though to finish with 348 passing yards and two touchdowns.

After being held to just 25 yards last week, Gordon rushed for 164 and three scores — with all three touchdowns coming after halftime.

20. Kansas State (Last week: 23)

Down 11 points on the road to in-state rival Kansas, the Wildcats rallied to win 31-27 to give them their 15th straight Sunflower Showdown victory. Kansas State turned a pair of Kansas miscues — a blocked extra point for a two-point return and a muffed pint for the go-ahead touchdown — into critical points to stay in the hunt for a potential spot to defend its Big 12 title. The Wildcats also came up with an interception in the end zone to halt the Jayhawks’ upset bid, with DJ Giddens (102 yards rushing and a score) helping run out the clock. 

The Wildcats were able to overcome a shaky game from quarterback Will Howard (13 of 24 for 165 yards, two scores and an INT), as well as a poor performance by their front seven, which allowed Devin Neal to rush for 138 yards (7.7 per carry) and three touchdowns. 

21. Iowa (Last week: Unranked)

The Hawkeyes clinched the Big Ten West with a comeback victory over Illinois, as Kaleb Johnson went 30 yards for the game-winning touchdown with just under five minutes to play. Johnson had been held to just six yards before the go-ahead score, as Iowa’s offense was again completely bottled up in a defensive slugfest. 

Iowa has won three straight games despite failing to score more than 23 points in any of the wins. In Big Ten play, the Hawkeyes topped 25 points just a single time. And yet, Iowa claimed the division for the second time in three seasons thanks to a defense that had a safety to kickstart the “scoring” and held the Fighting Illini to just 2.8 yards per rush.

22. Liberty (Last week: 25)

For the second-straight Saturday, Liberty got off to a red-hot start, as the Flames raced out to a 28-0 lead to pave the way for a 49-25 victory over lowly UMass. 

Kaiden Salter accounted for 343 total yards (225 passing, 118 rushing) and four total touchdowns, leading Liberty to touchdowns on the team’s opening four possessions.

The Flames took their foot off the gas in the second half, with just a pick-six their lone score in the third quarter. With two interceptions Saturday, Liberty now leads the nation with 21. 

Jamey Chadwell moved to 11-0 in his first season at Liberty, setting a program record for wins. The Flames have a strong chance at a perfect season with UTEP on deck.

23. UNLV (Last week: Unranked)

The Rebels just keep winning under first-year head coach Barry Odom, upsetting Air Force on the road to move to 9-2 and tops of the Mountain West standings. 

After trailing the Falcons by 10 at halftime, UNLV shoutout Air Force in the second half to secure a 31-27 comeback victory. Jayden Maiava threw for 339 yards with two touchdowns and two picks, leading the go-ahead touchdown drive at the end of the third quarter.

24. Toledo (Last week: Unranked)

In Tuesday night MACtion against Bowling Green, the Rockets scored a late touchdown inside the final two minutes to win their 10th-straight game and stay flawless in league play. Trailing by six and facing a 4th-and-2, backup tailback Jacquez Stuart took a short swing pass 59 yards to the house to give Toledo a 32-31 win. Quarterback Dequan Finn threw for 279 yards and three total touchdowns, while Penn Boone rushed for 131 and a score at 8.7 yards per clip. 

The Rockets’ 10-game winning streak is their longest in 52 years. 

25. NC State (Last week: Unranked)

The Wolfpack won their fourth straight game — and second in a row since starting quarterback MJ Morris decided to opt out and take a redshirt the rest of the 2023 season — beating Virginia Tech 35-28 in Blacksburg to move to 8-3. 

Dave Doeren’s team just keeps finding ways to win, as senior linebacker Payton Wilson spearheaded a resilient effort with 11 tackles, 3.5 TFLs and a sack. Brennan Armstrong accounted for four total touchdowns — two passing and two rushing — responding from his midseason benching to lead NC State to a 5-2 record thus far in ACC play. 

Projected to drop out: Utah, James Madison, Tennessee, North Carolina