ESPN releases 2023 College Football Playoff, full bowl projections after Week 11

On a weekend in which six ranked teams lost, with two of those coming against unranked opponents, there were some considerable shakeups in the pecking order of the bowl projections.

Both Oklahoma State and Kansas suffered losses to unranked Big 12 opponents to thin the herd in that conference. Those were probably the two biggest upsets on the radar this week.

So how did those results, as well as the results of dozens of other games this weekend affect the bowl projections from ESPN’s gurus Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura? Let’s take a look below.

CFP National Championship

NRG Stadium (Houston)
Monday, Jan. 8, 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Michigan

The national championship picture for both ESPN writers still hasn’t changed, despite all the drama surrounding the Michigan program right now in light of the sign-stealing scandal and the suspension of coach Jim Harbaugh. As long as both programs keep winning — and both Georgia and Michigan did so in fairly dominant fashion this weekend — there’s little reason to remove them from the title game in any bowl projections.

CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl

Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
Monday, Jan. 1, 5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Washington
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Oregon

Both ESPN writers have Michigan heading out West to the Rose Bowl, thanks to Georgia locking down the top overall seed and getting the right to play closer to home in the Super Bowl. And both ESPN writers agree that it will be a team from the Pac-12 to face the Wolverines. They just differ on which one. Bonagura has currently unbeaten Washington advancing to face Michigan in the College Football Playoff, while Schlabach sees Oregon pulling back atop the Pac-12 by season’s end.

CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl

Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Monday, Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Florida State
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Florida State

The only change this week in the picks for the Sugar Bowl came from Bonagura, who swapped out Washington for Florida State. With Washington still in his playoff bracket, that was a pretty minor change, only flipping spots three and four in the rankings. This would make for an excellent semifinal game, a regional semifinal of sorts with both programs from the deep south.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

Friday, Dec. 29
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Ohio State vs. Texas
Schlabach: Missouri vs. Texas

The only change this week from the ESPN writers in the Cotton Bowl was the swap of Ole Miss for Missouri by Schlabach. That came following Ole Miss’ thumping at the hands of Georgia, with the Rebels picking up a second loss. Given that Missouri also has two losses and has a very manageable closing stretch, the bet is on the Tigers to finish as the SEC’s second- or third-best team, thus representing in the New Year’s Six bowl in these bowl projections.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 30
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Missouri vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Penn State

Much like Schlabach did in the Cotton Bowl, Bonagura has replaced Ole Miss with Missouri in his bowl projections for the Peach Bowl. Bonagura now has Missouri facing Tulane in the Peach Bowl, with the Green Wave representing the highest ranked Group of Five champion. Schlabach kept his pick from last week intact, with Alabama facing Penn State.

Capital One Orange Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 30
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
4 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Ohio State

There were no changes from either ESPN writer on this pick, as they both stuck with last week’s projections of Louisville vs. a major conference opponent. For Bonagura, he has the Cardinals taking on the Crimson Tide. That comes a week after Louisville escaped against Virginia and Alabama blitzed Kentucky. Schlabach instead has Louisville taking on Ohio State as a non-playoff Big Ten team in the New Year’s Six.

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

Monday, Jan. 1
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oregon vs. Penn State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Tulane

Neither ESPN writer changed his pick from last week for the Fiesta Bowl, though both differed on who would play where. With Bonagura having Washington in the playoffs versus Oregon, he has Oregon taking on Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl. Schlabach has it reversed, with Oregon in the playoff and Washington in the Fiesta Bowl. Schlabach has the Fiesta Bowl going to the highest-ranked Group of Five champion, too, which at this point is projected to be Tulane.

Remaining Bowl Projections:

Saturday, Dec. 16
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida A&M vs. Howard
Schlabach: Florida A&M vs. Howard

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: New Mexico State vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Liberty vs. James Madison

Cure Bowl
FBC Mortgage Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Marshall vs. Colorado State
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. South Florida

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wyoming vs. Georgia State
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Eastern Michigan

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UCLA vs. Air Force
Schlabach: UCLA vs. Air Force

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UCF vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Syracuse

Monday, Dec. 18
Bahamas Bowl
Jerry Richardson Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Central Michigan vs. Appalachian State

Tuesday, Dec. 19
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Central Michigan vs. San José State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. New Mexico State

Thursday, Dec. 21
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: South Alabama vs. BYU
Schlabach: Marshall vs. San José State

Friday, Dec. 22
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Liberty vs. Troy
Schlabach: Navy vs. Louisiana

Saturday, Dec. 23
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. Texas State
Schlabach: UCF vs. Troy

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Arkansas State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: South Alabama vs. Northern Illinois

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Virginia Tech
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. UNLV

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Utah State

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
7 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Bowling Green
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Toledo

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. USC
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. USC

EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
10:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Rice vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Rice vs. Fresno State

Tuesday, Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Ohio

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Georgia Tech
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. UTSA

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Illinois vs. West Virginia
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Kansas

Wednesday, Dec. 27
Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Boston College vs. SMU
Schlabach: Miami vs. Memphis

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Duke vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee

DirecTV Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: NC State vs. Arizona
Schlabach: NC State vs. Arizona

TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Texas A&M
(FUN FACT: There were 16 instances this week in the bowl projections where both Bonagura and Schlabach penciled in the same team to the same bowl, excluding the New Year’s Six bowls.)

Thursday, Dec. 28
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Boston College vs. SMU

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Miami vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Rutgers

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Oklahoma State

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Utah
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Utah

Friday, Dec. 29
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. LSU
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Kentucky

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Duke vs. Oregon State

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Florida
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. Maryland

Saturday, Dec. 30
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Auburn

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.
Bonagura: Ohio vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. Boise State

Monday, Jan. 1
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. LSU

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Ole Miss