I think any chance of a top 4 seed ended with that beatdown. Everything's been easy for most of the conference season, but they got exposed tonight. Missing Izquierdo badly. Team and coaches need to do a lot of soul searching and make some adjustments. Good news is 1st round will be an easy game, so 2 weeks before a really competitive game, and rounds 2 & 3 should be at home. But I think Elite 8 is the ceiling for this team, which is really what I thought it was all along.
I’m not as pessimistic about our seeding. Yes, tonight sucked, but Arkansas just lost to Texas. We were above Arkansas in the RPI before that and now we’ve both lost in the same round of the SEC tourney to similar RPI ranks (USCe 17, Texas 23), but we were the regular season champions and won the head to head. I think we’re in over Arkansas.
We were above USCw in the RPI rankings coming in to tonight. They just lost to Rutgers, the 36 RPI team. I think we’re in over USCw.
Now, where it gets tricky is the ACC. I feel like the only way we don’t get into the Top 4 is if there is an all ACC top 4 and I don’t think there’s going to be.
If UNC beats Duke tonight (Duke is winning 1-0 at halftime) and then beats Florida State in the ACC finals, then they’re probably a top 4 seed. I feel like that’s the only way they’re a top 4. They’ll have 5 losses if they don’t win out.
So let’s say, UNC wins out. I feel like that puts them and Duke in. 2 spots gone.
I think Florida State is the next top 4 spot. They were sitting at #6 RPI and now have the Wake Forest win and a spot in the ACC finals against the #1 or #3 RPI team . Even with a loss to UNC (3 RPI) in the finals, they’re probably in.
So, now it comes down to a question of Wake Forest. Wake Forest was sitting at 7 in RPI before losing to Florida State tonight. That’s still a “good” loss. And while they do have a head to head win against us, the committee would have to put in a 4 loss, 2 draw team in over a 2 loss conference champion.
Could they do that? Sure, but I would rather be in our position than theirs.
If Duke takes care of UNC tonight, I think the top 4 are:
Duke
Florida State
Mississippi State
One of these:
Arkansas
Southern Cal
UNC
Wake Forest
Now, without Izquierdo, I do agree that the Elite 8 is probably our ceiling, which is still a helluvan accomplishment for what is traditionally the worst team in the SEC.