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Those tweaks would prevent wholesale changes for 2024, keep the predetermined permanent rivalries intact and have little disruption to the current 14 teams’ schedules. As for the four newcomers, this is how their schedules would shake out:
Washington — Home: USC, Iowa, Purdue, Penn State.
Away: UCLA, Oregon, Maryland, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Oregon — Home: Washington, UCLA, Ohio State, Maryland, Minnesota.
Away: USC, Indiana, Illinois, Nebraska
UCLA — Home: USC, Washington, Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern.
Away: Oregon, Iowa, Michigan,
Rutgers
USC — Home: Oregon, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin.
Away: UCLA, Washington, Penn State,
NorthwesternPurdue
Other changes: Iowa at Washington (was USC); Washington (was USC) at Maryland; Ohio State at Oregon (was UCLA); Indiana at Oregon (was UCLA); Oregon at Illinois, Maryland at Oregon (was Maryland at Illinois); Purdue at Washington, Washington at Michigan State (was Purdue at Michigan State); Minnesota at Oregon, Oregon at Nebraska (was Minnesota at Nebraska); Penn State at Washington, Washington at Wisconsin (was Penn State at Wisconsin).
Should the former Pac-12 schools become permanent annual rivals, a perfect rotation would be two West Coast road trips in years when that school has five. That would limit each school’s cross-country trips to three in a given year.
Predicting the 2024 Big Ten schedule is a heavy task. (Scott Dochterman /
The Athletic)
The schedule
No matter how the schedule shakes out, there will be dynamite matchups, travel difficulties and weekly oddities. There’s no way to avoid it with 18 teams. If there’s a blessing in 2024 (and 2025), it’s that there are 14 weeks in the season. And with two newcomers already with scheduled matchups at Hawaii, there are Week Zero games, too.
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Oregon is slated to play at Hawaii on Aug. 24 and UCLA is in Honolulu a week later. That allows UCLA to play a Week Zero game, and it makes sense to get a long trip out of the way before school starts. In this scenario, we’ll have the Bruins opening at Iowa on Aug. 24.
But the Big Ten has an interest in attaching Week Zero to the regular season. As a league with 18 institutions, spreading out the inventory makes sense. Perhaps the Big Ten could obtain a waiver — or push for immediate rules changes — so schools traveling more than two time zones can play on Week Zero. In my schedule, we’d add two more Week Zero games: USC at Penn State and Washington at Maryland.
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In a 14-game schedule, there are two automatic off weeks, and with a Week Zero, that makes three byes and some quirks. Iowa,
Nebraska and Rutgers have three-game road streaks broken up by a bye in a four-week stretch. Michigan State has a three-game home sequence and a bye in four weeks. But no team directly has more than two straight home or away Big Ten games.
Because of travel concerns, I put no West Coast team on the road for consecutive trips except for USC, which goes to Washington and UCLA. Minnesota is the only team to take two West Coast trips, but one was followed by a home game and the other week with a bye.
Some other 2024 scheduling notes:
• Three Big Ten members still require a nonconference game for the 2024 season: Washington, Northwestern and Rutgers.
• With 15 weeks, it would allow NBC and CBS each to have four top-week selections and Fox with seven. On Week Zero, NBC would get that claim.
• It already is determined that the Big Ten will air two games on Black Friday and a Sunday night game on Labor Day weekend.
Predicting August/September 2024
| AUG. 24/25 | AUG.29-31/SEPT. 1 |
|---|
| UCLA at Iowa | North Carolina at Minnesota |
| USC at Penn State | W. Michigan at Wisconsin |
| Oregon at Hawaii | Idaho at Oregon |
| Washington at Maryland | Purdue at Illinois |
| Fresno State at Michigan |
| UConn at Maryland |
| Fla. Atlantic at Michigan State |
| UTEP at Nebraska |
| Miami (Ohio) at Northwestern |
| Fla. International at Indiana |
| Illinois State at Iowa |
| UCLA at Hawaii |
| Weber State at Washington |
| Penn State at West Virginia |
| USC vs. LSU at Las Vegas |
| Southern Miss at Ohio State |
The future
For 2025 and beyond,
the Big Ten has major decisions to make. The mathematical symmetry in place for a 16-game model has changed. The plan of 11 protected rivalries and 13 double-plays in a two-year period is tossed aside.
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According to Big Ten chief operating officer Kerry Kenny, the league “will look to incorporate most, if not all, of the principles from flex protect-plus at 18 now instead of 16. Some areas may need to adjust a bit to ensure a rotation can be built, but the foundation of wanting to play each other more, not less, and preserving rivalries will still guide the conversation.”
Predicting September 2024
| SEPT. 6/7 | SEPT. 13/14 | SEPT 20/21 | SEPT. 28 |
|---|
| Texas Tech at Oregon | Boise State at Oregon | Marshall at Ohio State | Oregon at Nebraska |
| Texas at Michigan | Alabama at Wisconsin | Washington at Wisconsin | Northwestern at UCLA |
| Iowa State at Iowa | Northwestern at Ohio State | USC at Northwestern | Wisconsin at Michigan |
| Colorado at Nebraska | Notre Dame at Purdue | Arkansas State at Michigan | Minnesota at Indiana |
| Kansas at Illinois | Michigan at Rutgers | Toledo at Maryland | Iowa at Rutgers |
| Michigan State at Maryland | Louisiana at Michigan State | Charlotte at Indiana | |
| Duke at Northwestern | Troy at Iowa | Kent State at Penn State | |
| W. Michigan at Ohio State | Nevada at Minnesota | Eastern Illinois at Illinois | |
| Bowling Green at Penn State | C. Michigan at Illinois | UCLA at LSU | |
| Rhode Island at Minnesota | UNI at Nebraska | Rutgers at Virginia Tech | |
| Indiana State at Purdue | Fresno State at UCLA | Michigan State at Boston College | |
| South Dakota at Wisconsin | Maryland at Virginia | Purdue at Oregon State | |
| Akron at Rutgers | | | |
| E. Michigan at Washington | | | |
| Utah State at USC | | | |
| Indiana at Louisville | | | |
So what models work best? If the league places a premium on a pure rotation, then a 1-8-8 configuration is the easiest to implement. But significant historical rivalries like Michigan-Michigan State and Iowa-Minnesota would get tossed aside in that structure. Plus, USC and UCLA would play Rutgers and Maryland as often as they’d face Washington and Oregon. With a bicoastal conference that will have grown by 50 percent during the past 10 years, geography and history need to play a role in scheduling.
theathletic.com
