Are we really that far off expectations?

[57stratdawg]

We’re almost certainly going to be 3-3 entering our 10/14 bye. Western Mich is 1-3 with some ugly L’s. That spread could be like MSU -20. Obviously Sith Saban will eat our dinner.

But the second half of the season was always going to define the campaign, right? The MSU team from last night could win 3 or 4 games in Oct / Nov. Am I wrong?

 

[BingleCocktail]

We’re almost certainly going to be 3-3 entering our 10/14 bye. Western Mich is 1-3 with some ugly L’s. That spread could be like MSU -20. Obviously Sith Saban will eat our dinner.

But the second half of the season was always going to define the campaign, right? The MSU team from last night could win 3 or 4 games in Oct / Nov. Am I wrong?

IN ONE WORD: NO

 

[pseudonym]

You're not wrong. I wanted the South Carolina game, but it was slightly less than a coin-toss, and we lost by one score.

We have five coin-tosses (more or less) remaining:

• @ Arkansas
• @ Auburn
• Kentucky
• @ Texas A&M
• Ole Miss

Arkansas and Auburn are both flawed, Kentucky is unproven, and A&M/Ole Miss could be in shambles by the time we play. Hopefully, we can win 2+ of those five games.

 

[The Cooterpoot]

Nope, my expectations were high. But I did know I'd be disappointed as that's the norm for our football program.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

We’re almost certainly going to be 3-3 entering our 10/14 bye. Western Mich is 1-3 with some ugly L’s. That spread could be like MSU -20. Obviously Sith Saban will eat our dinner.

But the second half of the season was always going to define the campaign, right? The MSU team from last night could win 3 or 4 games in Oct / Nov. Am I wrong?

It depends on who you ask. I felt we would have a tough time this season because we were trying to change our offensive style completely and needed more Quality defensive players in the backfield. Looks like I was right about that but it does not make me happy that I was. At least we have a whole season left in front of us to try to change this. We'll see what happens. We still have a few games and a good opportunity to try to improve. It always makes me laugh when people start telling everyone what the rest of our season will be like... As if we don't have any opportunity to get better than we have what we have right now.

We will find out if we have any coaching or if we must find some new coaches.

 

[dickiedawg]

You're not wrong. I wanted the South Carolina game, but it was slightly less than a coin-toss, and we lost by one score.

We have five coin-tosses (more or less) remaining:

• @ Arkansas
• @ Auburn
• Kentucky
• @ Texas A&M
• Ole Miss

Arkansas and Auburn are both flawed, Kentucky is unproven, and A&M/Ole Miss could be in shambles by the time we play. Hopefully, we can win 2+ of those five games.

Nothing about the way our or Ole Miss seasons have gone to date suggest that game is a toss up. There’s plenty of time for their season to go in the gutter, of course.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

We’re almost certainly going to be 3-3 entering our 10/14 bye. Western Mich is 1-3 with some ugly L’s. That spread could be like MSU -20. Obviously Sith Saban will eat our dinner.

But the second half of the season was always going to define the campaign, right? The MSU team from last night could win 3 or 4 games in Oct / Nov. Am I wrong?

On schedule I’d say yes but on “paper”, no. And by that I mean the performances so far and especially how bad the pass D is.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Record wise might be at expectations, but how we looked is not. Especially on defense. I have a small glimmer of hope we may have a clue now on offense, but nothing on defense gives me hope.

 

[pseudonym]

Nothing about the way our or Ole Miss seasons have gone to date suggest that game is a toss up. There’s plenty of time for their season to go in the gutter, of course.

There is a scenario in which they lose to LSU and Georgia, drop another game along the way, and come into Starkville with four losses. They might be pretty checked out on Thanksgiving in that scenario.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

The only game that’s drastically different from what I expected preseason is LSU murdering us. But I still expected an L there, just more competitive.

I thought all along that last night was a toss up that would be tough to win on the road.

 

[woozman]

IN ONE WORD: NO

That’s four words***

 

[msugolf]

We’re almost certainly going to be 3-3 entering our 10/14 bye. Western Mich is 1-3 with some ugly L’s. That spread could be like MSU -20. Obviously Sith Saban will eat our dinner.

But the second half of the season was always going to define the campaign, right? The MSU team from last night could win 3 or 4 games in Oct / Nov. Am I wrong?

I like to look at the trajectory of the program vs just getting to a meaningless bowl game with a 2-6 conference record. Right now we are trending way down, especially with recruiting and coaching. Next couple years are going to be rough. We aren’t a NIL/transfer portal program so making up ground in that area seems unlikely.

 

[HumpDawgy]

With a veteran team this can only mean that we are a very poorly coached team.

 

[BulldogBlitz]

2x as many wins as should have been expected for the season.

 

[TrueMaroonGrind]

Wins and losses no. I always believed the offense will take half the season to near their potential, so the jury is still out. The defense is below my expectations. A good season is still very possible with the games left on the schedule. Somebody on the defense needs to step up for that to happen.

 

[patdog]

The only game that’s drastically different from what I expected preseason is LSU murdering us. But I still expected an L there, just more competitive.

I thought all along that last night was a toss up that would be tough to win on the road.

Arizona and SE Louisiana were also pretty drastically difference than I expected. These are 2 bad teams we should have beaten a lot more easily than we did. Looked better throwing the ball Saturday, but it's very concerning that a team that had trouble stopping the run shut our run game down cold. OL is still pretty bad. And secondary is one of the worst I've ever seen at Mississippi State.

 

[Rupert Jenkins]

Yes. Way below my expectations. This is not a team full of inexperienced players. I can get some blocking assignments being blown due to new scheme but all else should be on point. I know you don't replace a guy like Forbes but the rest should be replaceable. You have to replace a few guys every year.

 

[kired]

I can overlook the struggles on offense just due to changing the scheme. We knew there would be growing pains. Didn't expect Will to look so lost in the first few games but he was much more confident looking Saturday night. Maybe we'll be ok by second half of the season.

Having the 2nd worst defense in SEC is well below my expectations. (and not to be a wet blanket, but SC is right there with us on pitiful defenses so...)

 

[Pilgrimdawg]

Wins and loses are about what I expected so far. The offensive line and defense are both a big disappointment and if they don’t get it together quick our end of the season results are going to be well below expectations.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Arizona and SE Louisiana were also pretty drastically difference than I expected. These are 2 bad teams we should have beaten a lot more easily than we did. Looked better throwing the ball Saturday, but it's very concerning that a team that had trouble stopping the run shut our run game down cold. OL is still pretty bad. And secondary is one of the worst I've ever seen at Mississippi State.

We beat SE LA 48-7 so I don’t feel like that one is worth rehashing. I thought Arizona would be a close game going in, though I expected more of a shootout. I mean we are their only loss so far, so it’s not like they are just awful.

We don’t look as good as I anticipated, I will concede that. But the record is pretty much in line with what I figured.

 

[AstroDog]

Wins and losses no. I always believed the offense will take half the season to near their potential, so the jury is still out. The defense is below my expectations. A good season is still very possible with the games left on the schedule. Somebody on the defense needs to step up for that to happen.

Yep, this is a new program with new coaches in new positions with new schemes everywhere. Hard to believe that we’d give Rockey Felker and Sylvester Croom 5 years and not give Zach Arnold at least 2-3 years. Unless Zach falls flat on his face, I expect he’ll get a minimum of 3 years provided we are at least taking baby steps forward.

 

[POTUS]

• @ Arkansas - Career game from Jefferson and we're on the road. We lose huge.
• @ Auburn - Their QB situation is shaky. But it's on the road, so we lose.
• Kentucky - Their QB situation is shaky. We might have a chance.
• @ Texas A&M - Career game from Wegman/Johnson and we're on the road. We lose huge.
• Ole Miss - Career game from Dart. We lose.

1-4 or 0-5. Every QB we face will play like they're a Heisman contender. Our defense is just that bad.

 

[8dog]

We’re almost certainly going to be 3-3 entering our 10/14 bye. Western Mich is 1-3 with some ugly L’s. That spread could be like MSU -20. Obviously Sith Saban will eat our dinner.

But the second half of the season was always going to define the campaign, right? The MSU team from last night could win 3 or 4 games in Oct / Nov. Am I wrong?

I think it’s less about record and more about how we have looked. I think any non-Leach offense was going to struggle. We are asking Olinemen to do something totally different.

The issue is the defense. We are definitely well behind expectations there. Not much talent and unfortunately our HC can’t totally blame that on the last staff. But it’s amazing that we are this bad on defense and even the players we count on weren’t Leach recruits. That staff just whiffed.

 

[Seinfeld]

I think it’s less about record and more about how we have looked. I think any non-Leach offense was going to struggle. We are asking Olinemen to do something totally different.

The issue is the defense. We are definitely well behind expectations there. Not much talent and unfortunately our HC can’t totally blame that on the last staff. But it’s amazing that we are this bad on defense and even the players we count on weren’t Leach recruits. That staff just whiffed.

I also feel like it’s worth reminding people that this season was supposed to be the up year in the 4-yr cycle. A veteran record breaking QB, upperclassmen all over the field, a defense that has mostly played well since Arnett has been here, and 8 home games. I get that some things about the offensive scheme have changed, but if we can’t find 7-8 wins under these circumstances, everyone needs to prepare themselves for a very disappointing 2 yr stretch

 

[8dog]

I also feel like it’s worth reminding people that this season was supposed to be the up year in the 4-yr cycle. A veteran record breaking QB, upperclassmen all over the field, a defense that has mostly played well since Arnett has been here, and 8 home games. I get that some things about the offensive scheme have changed, but if we can’t find 7-8 wins under these circumstances, everyone needs to prepare themselves for a very disappointing 2 yr stretch

True but the even years with Bama and LSU at home always mitigate our opportunity for a big season.

 

[MaxwellSmart]

Defense is way worse than I thought it would be. Prior to the season, I thought we'd show some signs of life against LSU and beat USCe.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

I also feel like it’s worth reminding people that this season was supposed to be the up year in the 4-yr cycle. A veteran record breaking QB, upperclassmen all over the field, a defense that has mostly played well since Arnett has been here, and 8 home games. I get that some things about the offensive scheme have changed, but if we can’t find 7-8 wins under these circumstances, everyone needs to prepare themselves for a very disappointing 2 yr stretch

Correct. That's why Arnett changing the offense automatically got him one strike with many of our fans.

True but the even years with Bama and LSU at home always mitigate our opportunity for a big season.

The problem is, when you have an 'up' cycle year, you actually want these games at home, especially considering neither are their typical dominant selves.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Not at all

 

[thatsbaseball]

I'm not as surprised by our record as I am being the consensus next-to-worse team in the league. I just thought we'd surely have at least a break even record and be competitive in every game.....now I don't know.

 

[8dog]

Correct. That's why Arnett changing the offense automatically got him one strike with many of our fans.


The problem is, when you have an 'up' cycle year, you actually want these games at home, especially considering neither are their typical dominant selves.

I don’t think anyone was going to run a pure air raid. No one out there does. Not to mention I’m not sure the pure air raid would have put up 30 points at SC.

But Even running a “variation of the air raid” would be a big change. For 3 years We have asked these guys to stand up and block 3 men and zone block 2 running plays.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

I don’t think anyone was going to run a pure air raid. No one out there does. Not to mention I’m not sure the pure air raid would have put up 30 points at SC.

But Even running a “variation of the air raid” would be a big change. For 3 years We have asked these guys to stand up and block 3 men and zone block 2 running plays.

This has been beat to death, so need in arguing about that anymore. The idea was to keep as many things the same as possible. Arnett got the job due to a bad situation, but Leach's offensive guys were not afforded the same luxury. This was NOT, at all, a situation where Arnett was the best candidate available, surely we can all agree on that. So the whole 'run my own program' makes no sense. This was a semi-permanent, semi-interim thing to just carry us over into 2023 during a bad time. And had we failed this year due to offense, I think everybody would have given him another year or two to build his own program. It's simple, really.

Whether or not the Air Raid would have changed, stayed the same, or been buried with Leach, does not really matter.

 

[Dawgzilla2]

The idea was to keep as many things the same as possible.

Who said that was the idea? I know it seems like that was the plan, but did anyone in power ever say that? Obviously Arnett 's contract gave him autonomy.

And I get really tired of people claiming this was supposed to be an "up year" talent wise. One thing being an MSU fan should have taught all of us is that last year's success has little bearing on this year's. Players and coaches change (ours and our opponents). In college you don't have the same team week to week, let alone year to year. I learned my lesson in 2001.

Even if we still had Leach it would have been hard to expect improvement on last year's record. We lost too much on defense, and Will would be back to facing 8 man zones.

With an unqualified head coach and an unknown G5 OC, I don't see how anyone's expectations exceeded "wait and see".

 

[johnson86-1]

Record wise might be at expectations, but how we looked is not. Especially on defense. I have a small glimmer of hope we may have a clue now on offense, but nothing on defense gives me hope.

^^^this 100%

I am not shocked that we are struggling on offense but how lost we have been at times has been an unpleasant surprise. We have been worse than typical growing pains installing a new offense.

I am shocked at how bad we have been on D. I expected us to take a step back but I just didn't realize how much slower we apparently were going to get.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Who said that was the idea? I know it seems like that was the plan, but did anyone in power ever say that? Obviously Arnett 's contract gave him autonomy.

And I get really tired of people claiming this was supposed to be an "up year" talent wise. One thing being an MSU fan should have taught all of us is that last year's success has little bearing on this year's. Players and coaches change (ours and our opponents). In college you don't have the same team week to week, let alone year to year. I learned my lesson in 2001.

Even if we still had Leach it would have been hard to expect improvement on last year's record. We lost too much on defense, and Will would be back to facing 8 man zones.

With an unqualified head coach and an unknown G5 OC, I don't see how anyone's expectations exceeded "wait and see".

Considering the amount of returning starters, it was supposed to be an up year. However, I will concede a few things:

1) It's mainly about offense. We have returning starters back at QB, across the OL, RB and a bunch of WRs. Had Leach come back, we'd have been pretty good, as we were trending better. That's why it made sense to bring his guys back and give it a run.
2) Defense, well, it's being proven that Forbes, Young, Matthews and Wheat were much bigger losses than many anticipated, even though we still had a ton of returning starters.

That said, without COVID super seniors, it's a rebuilding year for sure. Leach even would have been looking at rebuilding to a peak with Parson 2-3 years from now.

 

[Dawgzilla2]

Considering the amount of returning starters, it was supposed to be an up year.

1) Had Leach come back, we'd have been pretty good, as we were trending better. That's why it made sense to bring his guys back and give it a run.

These are the kind of statements that really irritate me. "Supposed to be" an up year. "Had Leach come back, we'd have been pretty good,"

There just aren't any kind of guarantees in this game, especially at State. You can certainly be optimistic about the roster, but to simply expect improvement - and blame the coaches when you don't see it - is kind of unrealistic.

I don't accept the idea that Leach's offensive would have continued to trend upward. It seems likely, but with the turnover in receivers and SEC defenses figuring things out, who really knows? There were times last year when that offense was really frustrating.

That said, I agree it made sense to keep Leach's guys and see what happens. Too bad that pirate ship has sailed.

 

[blitz2Win]

Considering the amount of returning starters, it was supposed to be an up year. However, I will concede a few things:

1) It's mainly about offense. We have returning starters back at QB, across the OL, RB and a bunch of WRs. Had Leach come back, we'd have been pretty good, as we were trending better. That's why it made sense to bring his guys back and give it a run.
2) Defense, well, it's being proven that Forbes, Young, Matthews and Wheat were much bigger losses than many anticipated, even though we still had a ton of returning starters.

That said, without COVID super seniors, it's a rebuilding year for sure. Leach even would have been looking at rebuilding to a peak with Parson 2-3 years from now.

I think Leach was pretty good at managing a roster, he would have bolstered the defense with an edge rusher and a corner and not wasted ships and NIL on Goede Spivey and Roberson. I’m really surprised our defensive coaches didn’t recognize personnel needs on defense. Randy Charlton and Jackie Matthews came through the portal.