Baseball Outlook Question

[eckie1]

I'm not that far yet, but I think the seat gets pretty damn warm.

There’s a better than 50% chance we’ll have a full time AD by then to make a new hire!*****

 

[notYaBoy]

For those questioning our transfers, D1 Baseball has us with the #4 class and like mentioned before LSU with #1

 

[onewoof]

Why can't we bid and get a top 10 pitcher. Maybe I'm wrong but we get the guys with potential and let LSU and others write the checks for the top 10. Why can't we buy an ace or two.

 

[Bulldog from Birth]

Why can't we bid and get a top 10 pitcher. Maybe I'm wrong but we get the guys with potential and let LSU and others write the checks for the top 10. Why can't we buy an ace or two.

We did well on transfer pitchers. But there were very few lights out number 1 aces on the market. Skenes from Air Force was one. But we are in a day and age where we will never get a transfer player LSU wants and has a position open for. They can just pay a lot more than we can. It’s not just a matter of increasing our offer by 50%. If we did that, then LSU would just up their offer in response. And in the end, we run out of runway before they do. What we really need to be fearful of isn’t LSU. But it’s the Bama’s of the world. If they one day decide they want an elite baseball program, they can do out and buy one and pass us up pretty quickly. Hopefully they are just content to keep investing all their remaining money in a 4th string 4-star offensive guard and and off-the-field personal and dedicated coach and trainer for that 4th string guard.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

We did well on transfer pitchers. But there were very few lights out number 1 aces on the market. Skenes from Air Force was one. But we are in a day and age where we will never get a transfer player LSU wants and has a position open for. They can just pay a lot more than we can. It’s not just a matter of increasing our offer by 50%. If we did that, then LSU would just up their offer in response. And in the end, we run out of runway before they do. What we really need to be fearful of isn’t LSU. But it’s the Bama’s of the world. If they one day decide they want an elite baseball program, they can do out and buy one and pass us up pretty quickly. Hopefully they are just content to keep investing all their remaining money in a 4th string 4-star offensive guard and and off-the-field personal and dedicated coach and trainer for that 4th string guard.

2 things here:

1 - I agree we shouldn't be fearful of LSU. There are tons of baseball players out there, and LSU can't sign them all. LSU signing the best players isn't a new phenomena, they've been doing that since 1985. Just because they sign players doesn't mean they'll be better than us, because we'll sign good ones too.

2 - Why should I be fearful of Bama? If they wanted to build a program, why haven't they? You can spend money, but you can't MAKE fans be interested. And ultimately, THAT is what builds a program. Without fans at the game, the NIL eventually runs out.

As long as our fans keep turning out at DNF, our baseball program will thrive.

 

[Bulldog from Birth]

2 - Why should I be fearful of Bama? If they wanted to build a program, why haven't they? You can spend money, but you can't MAKE fans be interested. And ultimately, THAT is what builds a program. Without fans at the game, the NIL eventually runs out.

As long as our fans keep turning out at DNF, our baseball program will thrive.

It’s a new era of college athletics with NIL. You are describing the old system. You don’t need a big fan base to attract top talent any longer. You just have to write the biggest check and offer player development opportunities that’s close to being on par with your competition. I have no reason to think Bama has the desire to invest significant NIL resources from their bulk NIL coffers into their baseball program. Like you said, very few of their fans care. But if they DID want to buy up baseball talent for the heck of it, then they could pass us up on talent pretty quickly.

 

[rankindog86]

Why can't we bid and get a top 10 pitcher. Maybe I'm wrong but we get the guys with potential and let LSU and others write the checks for the top 10. Why can't we buy an ace or two.

We tried to, not enough money.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

It’s a new era of college athletics with NIL. You are describing the old system. You don’t need a big fan base to attract top talent any longer. You just have to write the biggest check and offer player development opportunities that’s close to being on par with your competition. I have no reason to think Bama has the desire to invest significant NIL resources from their bulk NIL coffers into their baseball program. Like you said, very few of their fans care. But if they DID want to buy up baseball talent for the heck of it, then they could pass us up on talent pretty quickly.

You are being intentionally negative and dramatic. NIL will affect 5% of athletes in baseball at most, and there are a ton of players available. That 5% was already either signing in the draft, or going to Vandy, Florida, LSU, etc. where they can get full scholarships or near about. The rest will choose a program based on the typical things. If anything, NIL may help us close that gap and at least provide enough money to cover scholarships. VERY few will be like Paul Skenes or Tommy Tanks.

That said, I could see Alabama or Auburn closing the gaps and keeping some Alabama kids home. But when all the money is equal they'll still choose MSU because of the typical reasons.

 

[Bulldog from Birth]

You are being intentionally negative and dramatic. NIL will affect 5% of athletes in baseball at most, and there are a ton of players available. That 5% was already either signing in the draft, or going to Vandy, Florida, LSU, etc. where they can get full scholarships or near about. The rest will choose a program based on the typical things. If anything, NIL may help us close that gap and at least provide enough money to cover scholarships. VERY few will be like Paul Skenes or Tommy Tanks.

That said, I could see Alabama or Auburn closing the gaps and keeping some Alabama kids home. But when all the money is equal they'll still choose MSU because of the typical reasons.

You could be right in how it plays out. But the risk is there. You are acting like a program can’t buy their way to the top. But it’s simply not true. Vandy did that very same thing with their baseball program. Until 2011, they had never been to the CWS. Since that first trip, they’ve qualified for 4 more (5 total), won 2 Natty’s and had 2 runner ups. Their program progression was not natural. They spent their way to that success with an advantage other schools didn’t have. The Alabama’s and Georgia’s of the world COULD do the exact same thing if they chose to. I’m not saying they will. And baseball does have significantly more postseason variability than football and basketball, so it’s not like our hopes would be eliminated. But don’t be fooled. If they decided they wanted to pass us by in overall talent, they could buy their way past us, just like Vandy did. They’ll probably be too focused on football and basketball though.

 

[ababyatemydingo]

We should be serviceable this year, but not great. I expect about 12-13 SEC wins this year. Next year, we SHOULD be loaded and ready to make a run. BUT, that was before NIL, so who the 17 knows. Players seem to be flocking to the money now, instead of history and facilities, so we could lose a few next year off of this year's team to the portal, if some of those big money schools come calling. Hopefully not

 

[BoDawg.sixpack]

It would be interesting to do a before and after study concerning how NIL affects legacy players, ie., the athletes whose fathers and mothers played athletics at a specific school. I wonder if they'll be a statistically significant difference between the number of players who follow the money in the NIL era versus signing with their parents' alma mater.

 

[RockyDog]

These same “baseball folks” probably predicted we’d be back in Omaha last year… point being, no one knows. Let’s at least let the season start before we get down on our baseball program

There definitely were. At least on that "other" board. Its the same people that see a trip to Omaha every year.

 

[drummerdawg]

I feel like State should be in a great situation when it comes to NIL for baseball. And no, I don't believe the Bamas and Auburns will be outbidding the big time programs. Those are football schools and they will continue putting their money towards that sport. Paying for baseball players would mean cutting back on football spending and that's just not going to happen. Our baseball fan base is twice their size (maybe more) and that means we have twice as many people more willing to put money into that sport than they do.