Beamer entering Year 4

[18IsTheMan]

Pretty good read on Beamer's outlook entering Year 4 vs our previous 4 coaches. For 3 of our previous 4 coaches (Scott, Holtz and Muschamp) Year 4 was the beginning of the end. Scott was fired after 5. Holtz survived consecutive 5-7 seasons in Years 4 and 5 only because of the weight his name carried and his coaching track record, but he stepped down after Year 6. Muschamp was canned midway through Year 5. Only Spurrier turned in a solid Year 4 that served as a steppingstone to greater success.

The combined Year 4 record for all 4 coaches is 21-27.

This is likely the pivotal Year for Beamer. Fewer than 6 wins and it's probably a foregone conclusion that we'll have a new head coach for the 2026 season. 7 wins or more and he could breathe some life into the program.

Beamer will have to buck historical trends in his fourth year

It is the fourth year of the Shane Beamer era at Carolina and after a rough 2023, the program is in need of a rebound season. It's time to review, preview and look back at the other Gamecocks coaches during the modern era and how they did in Year 4 for comparison.

247sports.com

 

[muscleknight]

Maybe we should be changing coaches every 2 years. Muschamp won 9 games in his year 2 then it was all downhill. Beamer won 8 games in his year 2 then only 5 in his year 3.

 

[PrestonyteParrot]

Pretty good read on Beamer's outlook entering Year 4 vs our previous 4 coaches. For 3 of our previous 4 coaches (Scott, Holtz and Muschamp) Year 4 was the beginning of the end. Scott was fired after 5. Holtz survived consecutive 5-7 seasons in Years 4 and 5 only because of the weight his name carried and his coaching track record, but he stepped down after Year 6. Muschamp was canned midway through Year 5. Only Spurrier turned in a solid Year 4 that served as a steppingstone to greater success.

The combined Year 4 record for all 4 coaches is 21-27.

This is likely the pivotal Year for Beamer. Fewer than 6 wins and it's probably a foregone conclusion that we'll have a new head coach for the 2026 season. 7 wins or more and he could breathe some life into the program.

Beamer will have to buck historical trends in his fourth year

It is the fourth year of the Shane Beamer era at Carolina and after a rough 2023, the program is in need of a rebound season. It's time to review, preview and look back at the other Gamecocks coaches during the modern era and how they did in Year 4 for comparison.

247sports.com

If Beamer gets 7 wins out of this schedule he is certainly deserving of some praise and some breathing room.

 

[18IsTheMan]

If Beamer gets 7 wins out of this schedule he is certainly deserving of some praise and some breathing room.

Absolutely. To get to 7 wins, he will have to have demonstrated that he can be an effective head coach.

 

[gamecock stock]

Never in our history since joining the SEC has a Head Coach consistently finished in the upper half of the SEC and consistently out recruited Clemson. .Our best coach, SOS, averaged a number 8 SEC finish in the then 14 team conference, if I recall correctly. And when Joe Morrison coached here (during our independent days) he rarely if ever out recruited Clemson. Yet, he had success against them. I know that some people say that Shane was hired because we saw him as a way to duplicate Dabo's success (a non-Coordinator and non-Head Coach, but a recruiter extraordinaire). The hiring authorities may have had that in the back of their minds. But there are hundreds of those available in the country. No, he was hired with the hope that he could duplicate the success of his old man, Frank. So, in that respect, Shane is what Hollywood critics call actor children of famous actors who get roles because of who their parent(s) is: "Nepo Baby" ( a term referring to celebrities whose parents succeeded in the same careers). If Shane is like his Dad Frank, he will show that this Fall with the schedule we play. Keeping my fingers crossed that he is, because Frank is in the College Football Hall Of Fame.

 

[Lurker123]

Never in our history since joining the SEC has a Head Coach consistently finished in the upper half of the SEC and consistently out recruited Clemson. .Our best coach, SOS, averaged a number 8 SEC finish in the then 14 team conference, if I recall correctly. And when Joe Morrison coached here (during our independent days) he rarely if ever out recruited Clemson. Yet, he had success against them. I know that some people say that Shane was hired because we saw him as a way to duplicate Dabo's success (a non-Coordinator and non-Head Coach, but a recruiter extraordinaire). The hiring authorities may have had that in the back of their minds. But there are hundreds of those available in the country. No, he was hired with the hope that he could duplicate the success of his old man, Frank. So, in that respect, Shane is what Hollywood critics call actor children of famous actors who get roles because of who their parent(s) is: "Nepo Baby" ( a term referring to celebrities whose parents succeeded in the same careers). If Shane is like his Dad Frank, he will show that this Fall with the schedule we play. Keeping my fingers crossed that he is, because Frank is in the College Football Hall Of Fame.

Well, you're right. It all boils down to this year. To say it's pivotal is an understatement. And I need to stop assuming it's outcome and drink heavily while using all the power of my superstitions to influence the outcome from the stands or the couch, depending on the week.

 

[18IsTheMan]

Well, you're right. It all boils down to this year. To say it's pivotal is an understatement. And I need to stop assuming it's outcome and drink heavily while using all the power of my superstitions to influence the outcome from the stands or the couch, depending on the week.

It begs the question: If we are 5-7 or worse this year, why bother a Year 5? Most everywhere you read says he will get a Year 5, short of a total implosion this season. But the historical data show if Year 4 is a bad year, you're not turning it around in Year 5. Unless we are making a long-term commitment, no matter what happens this year, I don't see the point of going through a Year 5 charade.

 

[gamecock stock]

Well, you're right. It all boils down to this year. To say it's pivotal is an understatement. And I need to stop assuming it's outcome and drink heavily while using all the power of my superstitions to influence the outcome from the stands or the couch, depending on the week.

To add one other thing about Frank Beamer: he was NOT a great recruiter. He would bring in the occasional super blue chip (ex: Michael Vick). He surrounded such players with solid prospects. Frank made his reputation on the football field, not the recruiting highway.

 

[gamecock stock]

It begs the question: If we are 5-7 or worse this year, why bother a Year 5? Most everywhere you read says he will get a Year 5, short of a total implosion this season. But the historical data show if Year 4 is a bad year, you're not turning it around in Year 5. Unless we are making a long-term commitment, no matter what happens this year, I don't see the point of going through a Year 5 charade.

Spot on. Don't we play the same schedule in 2025, except reverse the locations? We will rarely have an easy schedule in the SEC. We won't always be able to avoid playing Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, Florida and Auburn. I welcome and love the schedule this year. I see it as an opportunity. I don't fear it one bit. We don't play all our conference opponents plus Clemson over the span of 9 days, 2 weeks or one month. We play them one at a time over the course of about 3 months. As I said, it's an opportunity, not a burden. We will know what we have in Shane by December.

 

[18IsTheMan]

Spot on. Don't we play the same schedule in 2025, except reverse the locations? We will rarely have an easy schedule in the SEC. We won't always be able to avoid playing Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, Florida and Auburn. I welcome and love the schedule this year. I see it as an opportunity. I don't fear it one bit. We don't play all our conference opponents plus Clemson over the span of 9 days, 2 weeks or one month. We play them one at a time over the course of about 3 months. As I said, it's an opportunity, not a burden. We will know what we have in Shane by December.

Yep, as of right now it's the same schedule. I am fine with the schedule, also. You can't play 8 games in the SEC and not have a difficult schedule.

I guess I just don't see the rationale behind the "he's getting a 5th year no matter what" crowd. Beamer has no track record as a coach to prove he can reverse the historical pattern and turn things around after a poor 4th year. Now, if the powers that be have decided he's getting 8 years or something no matter what that's a different story. But I can't see any purpose in bringing him back for a 5th year as a make or break year.

Hopefully we get to at least 7 wins this year and it'll be a moot point.

 

[Dutch Cock]

I'm wishing for seven but I really think if he wins six games against this schedule with a freshman QB he's had a helluva year.

 

[18IsTheMan]

I'm wishing for seven but I really think if he wins six games against this schedule with a freshman QB he's had a helluva year.

6 wins would mean a record of 2-6 in the games that matter. I just don't see 2-6 as being a sign of success. We have to throw out ODU, Vandy, Akron and Wofford. Those games mean zilch in terms of measuring the team.

Now, of course, if he gets 6 wins and qualifies for a bowl, he won't be going anywhere b/c qualifying for a bowl is a holdover relic that symbolizes a good season, even though it's harder NOT to make a bowl than it is to make a bowl these days.

I think 6 wins is the bare minimum just to show that we treading water. If we can get 7 WITH a marquee-type win (Bama, OU, LSU, Ole Miss, etc), then I'll be more impressed.

 

[will110]

6 wins would mean a record of 2-6 in the games that matter. I just don't see 2-6 as being a sign of success. We have to throw out ODU, Vandy, Akron and Wofford. Those games mean zilch in terms of measuring the team.

Now, of course, if he gets 6 wins and qualifies for a bowl, he won't be going anywhere b/c qualifying for a bowl is a holdover relic that symbolizes a good season, even though it's harder NOT to make a bowl than it is to make a bowl these days.

I think 6 wins is the bare minimum just to show that we treading water. If we can get 7 WITH a marquee-type win (Bama, OU, LSU, Ole Miss, etc), then I'll be more impressed.

6 is definitely a sign of progress, but it especially depends on who those 2 additional wins are against. If we upset Alabama and Clemson, then 6 would be a huge year. If it's Kentucky and A&M, then not so much.

It also depends on how the season plays out for those other 8 teams. Right now, every one of those 8 is ranked in different too-early preseason polls. If that trend continues, and somehow each of those teams end up being 8+ win teams, then going 2-6 in games as an underdog isn't too bad.

It's just too early at this point to say one way or another what is progress or what isn't beyond the obvious - 7+ wins is great, 5- wins is not.

 

[18IsTheMan]

6 is definitely a sign of progress, but it especially depends on who those 2 additional wins are against. If we upset Alabama and Clemson, then 6 would be a huge year. If it's Kentucky and A&M, then not so much.

It also depends on how the season plays out for those other 8 teams. Right now, every one of those 8 is ranked in different too-early preseason polls. If that trend continues, and somehow each of those teams end up being 8+ win teams, then going 2-6 in games as an underdog isn't too bad.

It's just too early at this point to say one way or another what is progress or what isn't beyond the obvious - 7+ wins is great, 5- wins is not.

Eh, it's very hard for me to say 2-6 in Year 4 is a sign of progress.

If those 2 wins came against the likes of Bama and Clemson, it would somewhat be offset by us losing to UK.

Progress, for me, means beating UK for starters. We've beaten them the last 2 years, and that game needs to moved back to the W column for us on a more regular basis Losing that game, puts a major dent in the "progress" claims. That would put us at 5 wins. After that, we need two more wins. 2 wins from the remaining teams would mean we put up two impressive games. I would be fine with that heading into Year 5, but I think Year 5 would still need to be a prove it year.

If he gets 8 wins or more, then I'd say he's safe to make it to Year 6, no matter what.

 

[will110]

Eh, it's very hard for me to say 2-6 in Year 4 is a sign of progress.

If those 2 wins came against the likes of Bama and Clemson, it would somewhat be offset by us losing to UK.

Progress, for me, means beating UK for starters. We've beaten them the last 2 years, and that game needs to moved back to the W column for us on a more regular basis Losing that game, puts a major dent in the "progress" claims. That would put us at 5 wins. After that, we need two more wins. 2 wins from the remaining teams would mean we put up two impressive games. I would be fine with that heading into Year 5, but I think Year 5 would still need to be a prove it year.

If he gets 8 wins or more, then I'd say he's safe to make it to Year 6, no matter what.

6 wins has to be progress, since that's better than last year. It wouldn't be a lot better, and it may not be good enough to create a ton of optimism, but it would be progress.

Again, though, so much of this is going to be how the games play out on the field. 6-6, with 4 or 5 close, competitive losses, would give me hope for 2025. 6-6 with 4 or 5 uncompetitive blowout losses would be really concerning.

 

[18IsTheMan]

6 wins has to be progress, since that's better than last year. It wouldn't be a lot better, and it may not be good enough to create a ton of optimism, but it would be progress.

It's not so simple as just looking at the final number and saying "hey, 6 is more than 5". Last year, we had 3 gimme games (Vandy, Jax St...which turned out to be not so much of a gimme... and Furman). This year we pick up an extra gimme game, so 4 total.

Increasing our win total from 5 to 6 only reflects the one additional gimme game. With 6 wins, we still likely end up at 3-5 in conference play, which is the same as last year, so not progress.

 

[will110]

It's not so simple as just looking at the final number and saying "hey, 6 is more than 5". Last year, we had 3 gimme games (Vandy, Jax St...which turned out to be not so much of a gimme... and Furman). This year we pick up an extra gimme game, so 4 total.

Increasing our win total from 5 to 6 only reflects the one additional gimme game. With 6 wins, we still likely end up at 3-5 in conference play, which is the same as last year, so not progress.

It is progress though if the product on the field looks better, which is my main point. How the season plays out, how we look on the field, are really important factors.

Let's say for the sake of argument that we don't completely choke the last 9 minutes against Florida, win that game, and get to a bowl. The season as a whole would still have been really disappointing. Requiring a last minute pick six to save the game against Jacksonville State, a 28 minute dog fight with Furman before finally putting them away, a close shootout win over a bad Mississippi State team that was held under 20 points in their other 7 SEC games, absolutely no offense against Clemson.

If we go 6-6, or heck even 5-7 again, but have a bunch of really close losses against a really strong schedule, that would be progress. Not great progress, but at least something we can point to as hope for 2025. With how 2023 played out, we're going into 2024 without any hope based on what we saw last year on the field outside of an improved defense down the stretch.

 

[Lurker123]

Yeah, 6-6 with close losses is a bit different than 6-6 and not being competitve in 6 games.

I am certainly ready for kick off.

 

[Gamecock Jacque]

Yeah, 6-6 with close losses is a bit different than 6-6 and not being competitve in 6 games.

I am certainly ready for kick off.

I was definitely ready for kick off last year. I was not ready for what happened afterwards.

 

[18IsTheMan]

Yeah, 6-6 with close losses is a bit different than 6-6 and not being competitve in 6 games.

I am certainly ready for kick off.

sigh...so we are back to moral victories? I thought SOS cured us of that.

 

[will110]

sigh...so we are back to moral victories? I thought SOS cured us of that.

We're not talking about moral victories, we're talking about signs of progress in the program.

And obviously all 6-6 records aren't built the same.

 

[18IsTheMan]

We're not talking about moral victories, we're talking about signs of progress in the program.

And obviously all 6-6 records aren't built the same.

But the "looking good in losses" talk reeks of "moral victory"

 

[Hank Williams]

Unfortunately the NIL and transfer portal rules took away some of the impact of Shane's "we are family" approach to recruiting. Money is a much bigger influence than a fraternal relationship with many athletes. Shane's biggest recruiting challenge is not players but with NIL donors. Maybe the more accurate gage for measuring progress and perceived success for Shane at our university is the NIL contributions.

 

[will110]

But the "looking good in losses" talk reeks of "moral victory"

It's a fine line, of course, and perhaps we're just splitting hairs, but in my mind a moral victory is being happy with a loss. There's a difference between looking at the positives you can draw from a performance without being happy with the result.

Losing 21-24 at Alabama would be a positive performance this fall that shows hope for the future. That would be a loss that should help bolster the team's confidence that it can play with anyone.

Just like all losses aren't "bad," all wins aren't "good." Would anyone argue that the Jacksonville State win last year was positive in anyway other than the fact we won the game?

The final win/loss record is black and white, but how you get to that record is a lot of gray.

 

[Gamecock Jacque]

But the "looking good in losses" talk reeks of "moral victory"

I would rather go down putting up a fight than blowout fashion. I think it reeks of not wanting to get our a kicked all over the field.

 

[Lurker123]

But the "looking good in losses" talk reeks of "moral victory"

It does. But the guys above answered well. It wouldn't be that I was happy with 6 losses, but I wouldn't be pulling the eject lever on Shane's seat as fast if we came out and competed, rather than laying down.

 

[DeBoer31]

6 is definitely a sign of progress, but it especially depends on who those 2 additional wins are against. If we upset Alabama and Clemson, then 6 would be a huge year. If it's Kentucky and A&M, then not so much.

It also depends on how the season plays out for those other 8 teams. Right now, every one of those 8 is ranked in different too-early preseason polls. If that trend continues, and somehow each of those teams end up being 8+ win teams, then going 2-6 in games as an underdog isn't too bad.

It's just too early at this point to say one way or another what is progress or what isn't beyond the obvious - 7+ wins is great, 5- wins is not.

Too early!!??! No..unfortunately we play in the SEC. If we can't win more than 2 more in conference.....then other conversations need to be had immeditely. Like 18 said...four wins SHOULD be guaranteed. If those don't happen or anyone considers any of those 4 "definite" wins to be debatable....SB should be fired right now. Those 4 teams access to EVERYthing (support, stadium, conf. for 3 of them, recruiting area, NIL money, etc, etc) is less than half of what the USC job provides as a HC. So...if we get six wins.....BFD.
I don't care if those 4 go 40-8 combined this year....we should beat all of them. If that means we go 2-6 in the other games and total out at 6 wins. I would hope to god we are looking for a legitimate HC candidate that has displayed the TALENT FOR HEAD COACHING already in his career. HCing is a different animal than coordinator or position coach. I don't care if it's a Group of 5 HC that has proven results...I would take that gamble over the gas station lottery ticket we bought ourselves 3.5 years ago.

 

[DeBoer31]

It's a fine line, of course, and perhaps we're just splitting hairs, but in my mind a moral victory is being happy with a loss. There's a difference between looking at the positives you can draw from a performance without being happy with the result.

Losing 21-24 at Alabama would be a positive performance this fall that shows hope for the future. That would be a loss that should help bolster the team's confidence that it can play with anyone.

Just like all losses aren't "bad," all wins aren't "good." Would anyone argue that the Jacksonville State win last year was positive in anyway other than the fact we won the game?

The final win/loss record is black and white, but how you get to that record is a lot of gray.

Correct. I would argue if we played Jax. St tight and almost beat Bama....it shows an enormous amount of inconsistency and focus and would provide quicker seat ejection for the HC UNLESS he had a proven track record that this situation was an aberration. We are not in that situation.

 

[Gamecock Jacque]

Correct. I would argue if we played Jax. St tight and almost beat Bama....it shows an enormous amount of inconsistency and focus and would provide quicker seat ejection for the HC UNLESS he had a proven track record that this situation was an aberration. We are not in that situation.

By year 4 there's a track record.

 

[gamecock stock]

Yep, as of right now it's the same schedule. I am fine with the schedule, also. You can't play 8 games in the SEC and not have a difficult schedule.

I guess I just don't see the rationale behind the "he's getting a 5th year no matter what" crowd. Beamer has no track record as a coach to prove he can reverse the historical pattern and turn things around after a poor 4th year. Now, if the powers that be have decided he's getting 8 years or something no matter what that's a different story. But I can't see any purpose in bringing him back for a 5th year as a make or break year.

Hopefully we get to at least 7 wins this year and it'll be a moot point.

From 2015 to 2020 (Muschamp's last season), Clemson finished in the Top 4 of the nation each year. Since then, they have not finished in the Top 10 (last year, they finished number 20). If Clemson gets back to their pre-Beamer years ( their defense is supposed to be VERY good), I suspect that there won't be much patience with Shane. My suggestion to Beamer: he better pull out all the stops.

 

[Beanerball]

Beamer’s future is totally tied to Seller’s success, or lack there of, at the point. If we only win 5 games, but Sellers looks like the guy who can carry us forward, Beamer will be coach at least the following year. If Sellers is painfully average then Beamer is toast.

 

[18IsTheMan]

Beamer’s future is totally tied to Seller’s success, or lack there of, at the point. If we only win 5 games, but Sellers looks like the guy who can carry us forward, Beamer will be coach at least the following year. If Sellers is painfully average then Beamer is toast.

Agree about Sellers. Our future rides on the kid’s shoulders.

 

[Gamecock Jacque]

Why do I suddenly remember all the hype surrounding Dante Reno?

 

[Beanerball]

Hopefully Sellers has a great year and talented WR’s will see him as someone who will get them the ball. Beamer can’t keep fielding teams with glaring weaknesses, last year OL, and this year possibly the WR position. We don’t know that it’s a weakness yet, but we certainly don’t have any reason to think it’s a strength yet. It’s scary to think we will need to rely on the run game, since we didn’t have much of one last year. Going to be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

[PrestonyteParrot]

Agree about Sellers. Our future rides on the kid’s shoulders.

And on the backs of the OL to give him time to deliver

 

[DeBoer31]

And on the backs of the OL to give him time to deliver

THIS. I think Sellers is a stud....but Offenses and qbs in particular underachieve most often when they have a bad/inconistent/constantly "hurt" OL.

 

[gamecock stock]

THIS. I think Sellers is a stud....but Offenses and qbs in particular underachieve most often when they have a bad/inconistent/constantly "hurt" OL.

If we have a "bad/inconsistent/constantly hurt OL" again this season, Teaseley and/or Day will have to explain themselves.

 

[18IsTheMan]

If we have a "bad/inconsistent/constantly hurt OL" again this season, Teaseley and/or Day will have to explain themselves.

And Beamer, as he elected to retain both of them.

All we heard last year was how great our OL would have been if it had remained healthy, so this is definitely a prove-it year from that perspective.

Frankly, if this season is doomed by poor OL play again, Beamer should be fired for that alone.

 

[gamecock stock]

And Beamer, as he elected to retain both of them.

Spot on.

 

[gamecock stock]

Hopefully Sellers has a great year and talented WR’s will see him as someone who will get them the ball. Beamer can’t keep fielding teams with glaring weaknesses, last year OL, and this year possibly the WR position. We don’t know that it’s a weakness yet, but we certainly don’t have any reason to think it’s a strength yet. It’s scary to think we will need to rely on the run game, since we didn’t have much of one last year. Going to be interesting to see how it plays out.

Is the running back from Arkansas a good one.? I know he got hurt.