No league is going to boot out a member in good standing except for egregious behaviour on that school's part.
The way to accomplish contraction is for "10-12 members" to leave and start their own conference. Both the SEC and ACC were formed from members leaving the bloated SoCon - 13 to form the SEC in 1933, and 7 to form the ACC in 1953 (UVA is not a charter ACC member - they were invited and joined late in 1953).
None of the the old paradigms matter anymore.
The landscape is going to continue shifting far beyond the latest rounds or realignment. At some point schools like Alabama, UGA, OSU and Michigan will begin wondering why their revenue share is the same as schools like South Carolina, Mississippi State, Rutgers, Northwestern, etc. It's inevitable.
There's no loyalty. The bottom line is the bottom line. Oregon and Oregon State were together since 1915 and Oregon didn't think for a split second before screwing Oregon State over. Same goes for Washing and Washington State. That decision was a non contraction but it was purely a revenue-based decision with zero consideration for loyalty. You think the SEC is loyal to us?
As the past few months have especially proved, the financial bottom line is the most important scoreboard in college football.
www.nytimes.com
Contraction according to this article: "It’s the nuclear option in the future of conference membership, a “press only in event of emergency” eject button. But when the two biggest conferences run out of expansion options, contraction will be the only option to make sure the revenues continue to grow."
We have nearly reached that point, pending the outcome with ACC. The ACC and SEC are out of expansion options until the dust settles with the ACC. If those teams are eventually divvied up between the two conferences, contraction will be the next step.
Mark it down.