Blind Postseason Resumes - Baseball

[Perd Hapley]

For this exercise, I’m not going to post RPI’s because that’s too easy to look up and become biased.

Below are the Quad 1 - Quad 4 records for 3 different teams.

Team A:
Q1 record 8-9
Q2 record 2-2
Q3 record 5-0
Q4 record 11-0

Team B:
Q1 record 7-11
Q2 record 1-0
Q3 record 2-0
Q4 record 12-2

Team C:
Q1 record 5-11
Q2 record 0-2
Q3 record 7-0
Q4 record 11-0

Rank the teams.

 

[57stratdawg]

I would keep them in that In that order: A, B, C.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

I know this is the trick but I’d still go A, C, B.

 

[onewoof]

Someone check on Vitello.

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

I would keep them in that In that order: A, B, C.

Yep

 

[Perd Hapley]

I know this is the trick but I’d still go A, C, B.

No trick. Just rank em how you would if you were the committee.

And just one disclosure - none of them are MSU.

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

You saying I need to get my Airbnb for Omaha?

 

[Perd Hapley]

You saying I need to get my Airbnb for Omaha?

Depends on who you root for, I suppose.

 

[DAWGSANDSAINTS]

ABC

 

[HotMop]

For this exercise, I’m not going to post RPI’s because that’s too easy to look up and become biased.

Below are the Quad 1 - Quad 4 records for 3 different teams.

Team A:
Q1 record 8-9
Q2 record 2-2
Q3 record 5-0
Q4 record 11-0

Team B:
Q1 record 7-11
Q2 record 1-0
Q3 record 2-0
Q4 record 12-2

Team C:
Q1 record 5-11
Q2 record 0-2
Q3 record 7-0
Q4 record 11-0

Rank the teams.

D.

 

[Perd Hapley]

The answers….since I’m too dumb to figure out the spoiler feature….

Team A - who most seemed to rank the highest - is Alabama

Team B - consensus #2 for all besides Goat - is Missouri

Team C is Tennessee.

 

[HuntDawg]

This isnt basketball. Quad Wins really dont matter that much. Nor does mid season RPI. Again this will all play out.

You have 5 SEC teams in the top 7 RPI wise, 6 in the top 11.

Then: Alabama 22, MSU 23, UT 24, Mizzou 25, UGA 38, Auburn 44, and Tx Am 45.

However is the committee were picking today, without question TxAM would be in.

The only team thats probably elminated at this point is Ole Miss. Everyone else is a good weekend away from being half way in or totally out.

This weekend will probably weed at least 1 more team, maybe 2 out. MSU/Auburn, Alabama/Mizzou will seperate that middle tier even more so. Sweep or getting swept by any of those 4 teams will make a huge difference.....And TxAM/Kentucky will either put TxAm in with 2 feet, or put them back on the bubble, playing the RPI 1 rated Kentucky Wildcats. If TxAm gets 1 in kentucky, they bolster their case pretty good, if they win the series, they'd need to collapse down the stretch to not get in.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

For this exercise, I’m not going to post RPI’s because that’s too easy to look up and become biased.

Below are the Quad 1 - Quad 4 records for 3 different teams.

Team A:
Q1 record 8-9
Q2 record 2-2
Q3 record 5-0
Q4 record 11-0

Team B:
Q1 record 7-11
Q2 record 1-0
Q3 record 2-0
Q4 record 12-2

Team C:
Q1 record 5-11
Q2 record 0-2
Q3 record 7-0
Q4 record 11-0

Rank the teams.

A, C, & then B - those QUAD 4 losses!

 

[johnson86-1]

For this exercise, I’m not going to post RPI’s because that’s too easy to look up and become biased.

Below are the Quad 1 - Quad 4 records for 3 different teams.

Team A:
Q1 record 8-9
Q2 record 2-2
Q3 record 5-0
Q4 record 11-0

Team B:
Q1 record 7-11
Q2 record 1-0
Q3 record 2-0
Q4 record 12-2

Team C:
Q1 record 5-11
Q2 record 0-2
Q3 record 7-0
Q4 record 11-0

Rank the teams.

A is clearly 1?

B&C are almost interchangeable. I think 8-11 against Q1 & Q2 v. 5-13 is good enough to offset two bad losses. So I'd go A, B, C. But B&C are close.

 

[Shmuley]

You're saying that someone's prosthetic may be on craigslist?

 

[Perd Hapley]

A is clearly 1?

B&C are almost interchangeable. I think 8-11 against Q1 & Q2 v. 5-13 is good enough to offset two bad losses. So I'd go A, B, C. But B&C are close.

What if I told you B swept C in their 3-game weekend series. Does that tip the scales any?

 

[johnson86-1]

What if I told you B swept C in their 3-game weekend series. Does that tip the scales any?

That to me would put B clearly ahead.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

The answers….since I’m too dumb to figure out the spoiler feature….

Team A - who most seemed to rank the highest - is Alabama

Team B - consensus #2 for all besides Goat - is Missouri

Team C is Tennessee.

Wow, so according to RPI, ACB is the correct order.

 

[Perd Hapley]

This isnt basketball. Quad Wins really dont matter that much. Nor does mid season RPI. Again this will all play out.

You have 5 SEC teams in the top 7 RPI wise, 6 in the top 11.

Then: Alabama 22, MSU 23, UT 24, Mizzou 25, UGA 38, Auburn 44, and Tx Am 45.

However is the committee were picking today, without question TxAM would be in.

The only team thats probably elminated at this point is Ole Miss. Everyone else is a good weekend away from being half way in or totally out.

This weekend will probably weed at least 1 more team, maybe 2 out. MSU/Auburn, Alabama/Mizzou will seperate that middle tier even more so. Sweep or getting swept by any of those 4 teams will make a huge difference.....And TxAM/Kentucky will either put TxAm in with 2 feet, or put them back on the bubble, playing the RPI 1 rated Kentucky Wildcats. If TxAm gets 1 in kentucky, they bolster their case pretty good, if they win the series, they'd need to collapse down the stretch to not get in.

First off, Quad 1 wins absolutely matter. That’s an absurd take to suggest they don’t. The judgment criteria for baseball and basketball for the NCAA committees really aren’t any different at all. They both are after high index rating (RPI or NET), strong SOS, good performance in road / neutral games, and quality wins / lack of bad losses. Conference record is very much a secondary consideration…..you can’t be terrible there, but it will be consistently overlooked if its slightly below average while all the other factors are strong.

Secondly, the point was to illustrate that there are two teams currently that most feel are in the bottom 2 or 3 in the league - due to preconceived biases - that are objectively outperforming a team that a lot thought was the best SEC team (again, due to preconceived biases). 40ish games in, there’s certainly enough sample size to start making judgments that what we thought might be the case in February sure isn’t the case in April.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Wow, so according to RPI, ACB is the correct order.

Yeah but barely. Mizzou is hurt by 2 bad losses, slightly worse OOC schedule, and slightly worse overall win %. But they are all bunched together in RPI and I imagine will leapfrog each other pretty regularly unless one tanks or gets red hot.

 

[patdog]

A. No to either B or C. But now that I see A is Alabama, they've got to do something about that 6-9 conference record. I still think if the tournament was today, they'd sneak in even with the bad conference record.

 

[HuntDawg]

First off, Quad 1 wins absolutely matter. That’s an absurd take to suggest they don’t. The judgment criteria for baseball and basketball for the NCAA committees really aren’t any different at all. They both are after high index rating (RPI or NET), strong SOS, good performance in road / neutral games, and quality wins / lack of bad losses. Conference record is very much a secondary consideration…..you can’t be terrible there, but it will be consistently overlooked if its slightly below average while all the other factors are strong.

Secondly, the point was to illustrate that there are two teams currently that most feel are in the bottom 2 or 3 in the league - due to preconceived biases - that are objectively outperforming a team that a lot thought was the best SEC team (again, due to preconceived biases). 40ish games in, there’s certainly enough sample size to start making judgments that what we thought might be the case in February sure isn’t the case in April.

At the end of the year, when the majroity if not every SEC win is a Quad 1 win. its not going to matter, just like RPI at the half way point doesnt.

Again this has been proven time after time after time. Your CONFERENCE record holds all the water. In this conference there has again really yet to be a time where someone has been 2-3 games behind someone in SEC wins and not been chosen over another team that has more. Keeping in mind that tournament wins count as sec wins.

Which is why-- without any question in my mind. If the season ended now or played out this way. And TxAm was 15-15 in conference with an RPI of 40. And Team X was 12-18 in conference and had an RPI of 28. TxAm will go each and every time. This has been very much proven by the committee year after year

Georgia was allowed in with a 31-30 record, but they went 16-14 in CONFERENCE.
The closest thing you have is the Alabama, LSU, UGA in 2021, but when counting in the tournament wins. There was only a game difference.

Kentucky was allowed not allowed a few years back and the committee chairman flat said, they had a nice team, but we couldnt over looked the CONFERENCE record.

start winning conference games we wont need to worry about RPI

 

[HuntDawg]

In shades of 2011, LSU baseball finds itself at 'mercy' of NCAA selection committee

LSU finished the 2011 season with the No. 28 RPI in the country and did not make the NCAA tournament. The Tigers have similar credentials this year.

www.theadvocate.com

2011- 36 wins by LSU. only 13-17 in CONFERENCE. Didnt finish in top 8 of SEC. Had an RPI of 28. Was passed over for a UGA team that went 31-30 in the regular season but out performed them in CONFERENCE.

again history is littered with this.

Win your conference games. Get into that top 9, you'll get in. Dont, you wont.

 

[HuntDawg]

To answer your second point. Tenn is in a bind. Theyve got Vandy, Kentucky, South Carolina left. Their scheduling hurt them as they dont get to play Alabama, Auburn or Ole Miss. I view them very much as a bubble team myself, even with the brand name, and nice RPI.

With the lack of H2H matchups b/t those 3 teams will make for an interesting dynamic if they are all on the bubble at seasons end

 

[Perd Hapley]

In shades of 2011, LSU baseball finds itself at 'mercy' of NCAA selection committee

LSU finished the 2011 season with the No. 28 RPI in the country and did not make the NCAA tournament. The Tigers have similar credentials this year.

www.theadvocate.com

2011- 36 wins by LSU. only 13-17 in CONFERENCE. Didnt finish in top 8 of SEC. Had an RPI of 28. Was passed over for a UGA team that went 31-30 in the regular season but out performed them in CONFERENCE.

again history is littered with this.

Win your conference games. Get into that top 9, you'll get in. Dont, you wont.

Are you just going to conveniently leave out that UGA had an RPI of 16 (12 spots ahead of LSU) and the #1 overall SOS in the country? Or are you just going to keep pretending its only conference record?

Find me a Final Top 25 RPI team from a power conference, any year, with an overall record over .500 that didn’t make the field. I’ll be waiting.

 

[HuntDawg]

No i was pointing out that winning 36 games, being LSU, having an RPI of 28. Get you left out of the tournament when you go 13-17.

Alabama went 14-16 in conf that same year, had an RPI of 33, and won only 33 games-- and they were chosen over LSU and their RPI.

Also for the RPI supporters: 37 teams with a RPI worse than LSU's made the tournament that year.

 

[HuntDawg]

Are you just going to conveniently leave out that UGA had an RPI of 16 (12 spots ahead of LSU) and the #1 overall SOS in the country? Or are you just going to keep pretending its only conference record?

Find me a Final Top 25 RPI team from a power conference, any year, with an overall record over .500 that didn’t make the field. I’ll be waiting

Waiting? Thats funny. Power Conference over 500 inside the top 25. Again i just showed you one that was 28.

3 points matter to you that much?

 

[Perd Hapley]

At the end of the year, when the majroity if not every SEC win is a Quad 1 win. its not going to matter.

It matters because 12-13 wins in SEC play is easily equivalent to 20+ in the Big 12, PAC 12, Big 10, and probably equivalent to like 17-18 wins in the ACC when it comes to quality wins.

We aren’t competing with other SEC teams for bids, we’re competing with those other teams. The SEC hierarchy will sort itself out just like it did in 2011, when UGA had a much higher RPI, much stronger schedule, AND a better conference record than LSU. There’s no hard cap in how many SEC teams get in.

A 13 win SEC team with an RPI of 22 is getting in over a 17-18 win team from the Big 10 with an RPI in the 50’s every damn time. If the 10th best SEC team has that resume, 10 teams are getting in. If 12 teams have that resume, 12 are getting in.

Yet another example - 2022 softball. Exact same selection criteria as every other NCAA sport. MSU finished 12th in the SEC, only 10 SEC wins. Still made the field. And that’s with an equivalent record to 12-18 in baseball.

 

[HuntDawg]

Boy that was easy.

2016, UNC had a 34-21 second. Went 13-17 in conference. The ACC got 10 teams in and UNC was NOT one of them

Their RPI. 19.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Waiting? Thats funny. Power Conference over 500 inside the top 25. Again i just showed you one that was 28.

3 points matter to you that much?

Yes it matters because that’s the historical cutoff for a guaranteed bid….Top 25 RPI if you’re over .500 overall. And you’re about 95% to get in if you’re Top 35 with the same criteria met.

If 2011 Bama got in over LSU I’d say that maybe LSU did have beef. But I’d also ask who took the head to head in that series, and how many wins LSU had before Hoover. If its only a 5 spot difference, and one team not only finished ahead in standings but also took the head to head series, that’s certainly enough for the committee to choose the team that had those trump cards.

 

[HuntDawg]

Again very wrong. Youre competing with teams inside your own conference. The ACC got 10, didnt get 11. UNC and their 19 RPI was left out.

We very much have an amount of teams we will be allowed. Its a NATIONAL tournament, not an sec tournament. We arent getting 11 or 12. We need to be inside the top 8 to feel good. 9 or 10 it'll come down to a bubble situation

 

[OG Goat Holder]

In shades of 2011, LSU baseball finds itself at 'mercy' of NCAA selection committee

LSU finished the 2011 season with the No. 28 RPI in the country and did not make the NCAA tournament. The Tigers have similar credentials this year.

www.theadvocate.com

2011- 36 wins by LSU. only 13-17 in CONFERENCE. Didnt finish in top 8 of SEC. Had an RPI of 28. Was passed over for a UGA team that went 31-30 in the regular season but out performed them in CONFERENCE.

again history is littered with this.

Win your conference games. Get into that top 9, you'll get in. Dont, you wont.

Did you notice that the 2021 LSU team, the basis of the article you linked, actually DID get in the tournament with a 13-17 conference record? Then proceeded to win the regional, thus proving they belonged.

Just because that's the way we've always done things, doesn't mean it'll continue, especially in the ever-changing world of college sports. The committee knows that the SEC is a monster. They are making less and less of those mistakes.

Alabama got in in 2021 at 12-17 too.

RPI matters. Especially since the SEC has now rattled off 4 of the last 5 national titles. CWS is routinely 3 or 4 SEC teams. Even moreso once Texas and Oklahoma get here.

I'm not saying don't look at history. But you have to look at the demographic shifts too.

 

[HuntDawg]

Very much ever changing. The 2021 tournament/selection was documneted in anotehr thread we've already spoken of. Alabama won multiple games in the sec tournament that year that actually vaulted their sec win total into 14 or 15.

The committee knows the SEC is a monster, just like they knew the ACC was a monster. I stand by and would be willing to bet ANY amount of money anyone is willing to bet... the sec will be capped at 10 teams.

 

[HuntDawg]

2003- Virginia, RPI 25, overall record 28-25, left out
2006- Wake, RPI 28, 33-22 overall record, left out
2007- Oklahoma, RPI 28, 33-22 overall record, left out
2008- Clemson, RPI 26, 31-27 overall record, left out

Then of course UNC at 19.

So 2 of the teams you met, including one with an RPI of 19. were left out, strictly due to conference finishes

 

[Perd Hapley]

Boy that was easy.

2016, UNC had a 34-21 second. Went 13-17 in conference. The ACC got 10 teams in and UNC was NOT one of them

Their RPI. 19.

Honestly, Well done. One in the past 7+ years….11th best team in the 2nd best conference that also didn’t make its conference tourney that year…..in a 10-bid year for that 2nd best conference. But it counts. Any others?

Either way, I stand corrected, and hereby revise my statement from 100% chance to get in with Top 25 RPI and over .500 to 99.9% chance.

It also seems like UNC very likely got screwed. Wake Forest had same conference record (13-17) with 10 spot lower RPI and got in. That’s a bit confusing. Also note from that same year / same conference - Georgia Tech. 13-16 in a conference nowhere close to as good as the SEC (a mere half game better than that UNC team). But RPI was high at 22. They got in. Interesting stuff.

 

[Perd Hapley]

2003- Virginia, RPI 25, overall record 28-25, left out
2006- Wake, RPI 28, 33-22 overall record, left out
2007- Oklahoma, RPI 28, 33-22 overall record, left out
2008- Clemson, RPI 26, 31-27 overall record, left out

Then of course UNC at 19.

So 2 of the teams you met, including one with an RPI of 19. were left out, strictly due to conference finishes

Except UNC wasn’t left out due to conference finish. A team from same conference with their same record and 10-spot lower RPI still got in. Something else was in play there.

 

[HuntDawg]

All simply goes back to CONFERENCE record matters, and just because we are some great conference the committee isnt going to award 80% of our league a bid.

The ACC got 10 teams in that year, sec only 7, fair to say they were the 11th best team from the BEST conference that particular season.

Point is and was. RPI doesnt matter that much. There isnt a magic number that gets us in from an RPI standpoint unless you are talking like top 16.

The committee has shown TIME and TIME and TIME again that conference record trumps most everything else. If conference records are super close, then it becomes the tie breaker, but its nowhere near as important

 

[HuntDawg]

Except UNC wasn’t left out due to conference finish. A team from same conference with their same record and 10-spot lower RPI still got in. Something else was in play there.

No they were. Due to conference tie-breaker rules. Wake Forest was the 10th ACC team in the standings, UNC was 11th.

The committee chose the BEST 10 ACC teams. UNC was 11th. They didnt get in, even with that pretty RPI and all the other things that are mentioned in this thread

The commiteee chose a team whose RPI was 10 points LOWER. Due to finish in the conference standings.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Very much ever changing. The 2021 tournament/selection was documneted in anotehr thread we've already spoken of. Alabama won multiple games in the sec tournament that year that actually vaulted their sec win total into 14 or 15.

The committee knows the SEC is a monster, just like they knew the ACC was a monster. I stand by and would be willing to bet ANY amount of money anyone is willing to bet... the sec will be capped at 10 teams.

In a normal year you would likely be right, and you may still be this year, but this is not a normal year in the SEC. The last place team in the league has an RPI just outside the Top 50. So again, not ruling out there being more than 10 SEC teams in the tourney. Just depends on how certain teams finish.

We also need to get over the whole “it’s too early to look at RPI” thing that some keep mentioning. We are almost 40 games in at this point, you’ve absolutely got enough of a sample size to start considering it strongly.

 

[HuntDawg]

In a normal year you would likely be right, and you may still be this year, but this is not a normal year in the SEC. The last place team in the league has an RPI just outside the Top 50. So again, not ruling out there being more than 10 SEC teams in the tourney. Just depends on how certain teams finish.

We also need to get over the whole “it’s too early to look at RPI” thing that some keep mentioning. We are almost 40 games in at this point, you’ve absolutely got enough of a sample size to start considering it strongly.

My point isn’t to not look at it now. It’s valid now. It’s valid period.

and at the end of the year if we are inside the top 9-10 teams sec record wise we’ll get in regardless of our rpi. If we are outside the top 10, we are very much likely out.

why I continue to say. It’s the conference record that matters. Everyone in the sec has a good rpi. So our strong rpi isn’t going to get us in over someone else whose rpi maybe isn’t as strong but finished higher in conference

again as shown now. If season ended today, Texas am would for sure be in. The rest of the high rpi teams would be on the bubble hoping their resume stacked up. It’ll be same way at the end of the year