Blind Postseason Resumes - Baseball

[MSUDC11-2.0]

AND…. It all played out

SEC will get 10 teams. No chance at an 11.. and had TxAm lost today they would have very much been a bubble team, but the 14 sec wins will likely get them in.

The SEC will get 4 national seeds, regardless of the RPIs, 4 national seeds: LSU, Florida, Vandy, Arkansas

All the norm… just like every season.

The big question is how many other HOST seeds do the sec get. Think South Carolina Had a leg up until they lost today to UT… But they have some decision to make with them and teams like Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, and Tennessee can all make a case to host

Be interesting to see what happens

Georgia had a chance until last weekend but then got swept by Mizzou.

It was a strong RPI year for the league but the teams in the 11-13 range just didn’t have good enough conference records.

There’s a path to as many as 8 or 9 SEC hosts but I presume it will settle around 6 or 7.

 

[Perd Hapley]

AND…. It all played out

SEC will get 10 teams. No chance at an 11.. and had TxAm lost today they would have very much been a bubble team, but the 14 sec wins will likely get them in.

The SEC will get 4 national seeds, regardless of the RPIs, 4 national seeds: LSU, Florida, Vandy, Arkansas

All the norm… just like every season.

The big question is how many other HOST seeds do the sec get. Think South Carolina Had a leg up until they lost today to UT… But they have some decision to make with them and teams like Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, and Tennessee can all make a case to host

Be interesting to see what happens

There are currently 6 national seed worthy SEC teams and 8 host-worthy teams. Pretty aggressive to say we only get 4 national seeds, and that the #2 RPI team ain’t getting one.

“It all played out”, and its still pretty much the strongest the league has ever been….regardless of 9, 10, or 11 teams getting in. And A&M ain’t in, yet.

 

[HuntDawg]

There are currently 6 national seed worthy SEC teams and 8 host-worthy teams. Pretty aggressive to say we only get 4 national seeds, and that the #2 RPI team ain’t getting one.

“It all played out”, and its still pretty much the strongest the league has ever been….regardless of 9, 10, or 11 teams getting in. And A&M ain’t in, yet.

Yep there are 8 sec teams bid worthy.

National seeds could very much flip due to the tournament. Ark/LSU/Florida are all locks to get a national seed. I think Vandy is as well. However all the other teams mentioned could move up with a strong Hoover showing.

I’d be willing to bet any amount of money you want UK isn’t a national seed Unless they are in the SECCG and even then probably wont. They went 4-6 in SEC conference weekend series. They finished Tied for 7th in the SEC. Wont happen without a deep Hoover run. I actually think they are borderline to not even host at the current moment.

RPI doesn’t matter that much when the other teams in the conversation are also highly

I dont think we get more than 4 national seeds because:
Wake And Stanford will be national seeds… most likely Clemson as well.

Leaves one spot left: I dont see them rewarding the SEC with a record 5th national seed. So again it’s about competing against each other for the final spot…. thats leaving out a 44 win 19 win in conference Virginia and leaves out the Big12 champion as well. Think d1 baseball had WVU in as the national seed.

Agree AM isn’t in yet.. but 14 sec wins is going to get them in. Had they lost today, they’d probabyl need to do something in Hoover to clinch a spot.

regardless it’ll be a big tournament for SC, Tenn, Bama, Auburn, Kentucky—- who will all be working to earn a host bid

 

[HuntDawg]

Georgia had a chance until last weekend but then got swept by Mizzou.

It was a strong RPI year for the league but the teams in the 11-13 range just didn’t have good enough conference records.

There’s a path to as many as 8 or 9 SEC hosts but I presume it will settle around 6 or 7.

Yep conference will almost always beat up on each other and make it a 8-9-10 bid league. Happened again this year.

Also agree I think 7-8 teams are deserving of a host bid. I too think it’ll settle on 6-7 depending how the geography plays out and the tournaments. I know they’ll want at least 1 bid somewhere semi north and another 1-2 out west.

 

[HuntDawg]

There are currently 6 national seed worthy SEC teams and 8 host-worthy teams. Pretty aggressive to say we only get 4 national seeds, and that the #2 RPI team ain’t getting one.

“It all played out”, and it’s still pretty much the strongest the league has ever been….regardless of 9, 10, or 11 teams getting in. And A&M ain’t in, yet.

Plus Kentucky was
1-2 vs Florida
1-2 vs UT
0-3 vs Vandy
1-2 vs LSU
and they didnt play Arkansas.

I just dont think the committee is going to reward that conference record with a national seed.

They are technically the 8 seed in the tournament. I dont think finishing 8th in your conference is going to merit a national seed.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Yep there are 8 sec teams bid worthy.

National seeds could very much flip due to the tournament. Ark/LSU/Florida are all locks to get a national seed. I think Vandy is as well. However all the other teams mentioned could move up with a strong Hoover showing.

I’d be willing to bet any amount of money you want UK isn’t a national seed Unless they are in the SECCG and even then probably wont. They went 4-6 in SEC conference weekend series. They finished Tied for 7th in the SEC. Wont happen without a deep Hoover run. I actually think they are borderline to not even host at the current moment.

RPI doesn’t matter that much when the other teams in the conversation are also highly

I dont think we get more than 4 national seeds because:
Wake And Stanford will be national seeds… most likely Clemson as well.

Leaves one spot left: I dont see them rewarding the SEC with a record 5th national seed. So again it’s about competing against each other for the final spot…. thats leaving out a 44 win 19 win in conference Virginia and leaves out the Big12 champion as well. Think d1 baseball had WVU in as the national seed.

Agree AM isn’t in yet.. but 14 sec wins is going to get them in. Had they lost today, they’d probabyl need to do something in Hoover to clinch a spot.

regardless it’ll be a big tournament for SC, Tenn, Bama, Auburn, Kentucky—- who will all be working to earn a host bid

I can see UK not getting national seed, but they are 100% hosting at worst. NCAA would go against everything they’ve ever stood for to not award at least a host bid to the #2 RPI team that wins 36 games (minimum) against the #1 toughest schedule

SEC deserves a minimum of 5 national seeds and minimum of 7 host sites. I believe both would be records for the league. Hard to see at least one not happening, but probably both. I’d put UVa, Wake, and Stanford in there with the other 5 SEC teams for the national seeds. Don’t see Clemson trumping any of those 8. Big 12 was a terrible conference this year, their champ certainly doesn’t deserve a national seed by default.

I believe Auburn is the only team that can play their way out of hosting in Hoover. But I still don’t even know that I see that. I also don’t think Tennessee can do enough to host even if they win the SEC Tourney. They are in a very similar boat to us in 2011. We won 16 in SEC play and won the tourney….and were still damn near a 3-seed.

 

[HuntDawg]

I can see UK not getting national seed, but they are 100% hosting at worst. NCAA would go against everything they’ve ever stood for to not award at least a host bid to the #2 RPI team that wins 36 games (minimum) against the #1 toughest schedule

SEC deserves a minimum of 5 national seeds and minimum of 7 host sites. I believe both would be records for the league. Hard to see at least one not happening, but probably both. I’d put UVa, Wake, and Stanford in there with the other 5 SEC teams for the national seeds. Don’t see Clemson trumping any of those 8. Big 12 was a terrible conference this year, their champ certainly doesn’t deserve a national seed by default.

I believe Auburn is the only team that can play their way out of hosting in Hoover. But I still don’t even know that I see that. I also don’t think Tennessee can do enough to host even if they win the SEC Tourney. They are in a very similar boat to us in 2011. We won 16 in SEC play and won the tourney….and were still damn near a 3-seed.

I dont disagree. I’ll also add that I dont think Bama deserves to host even with the RPI due to their 123rd ranked OOC schedule.

I haven’t looked lately, but I see a lot of proejctions having Kentucky as 2 seeds and not hosting. I would agree with you however, I’d say they deserve to host more than South Carolina. Comparing resumes and the fact UK swept USC.

Clemson went 20-10 in the ACC, the second best conference. Won 39 games, RPI of 7, SOS of 3. They are going to be a national seed unless they go 0-2 in their conference tourney. Not to mention Clemson has 31 quad 1 and 2 wins. Which i think is more than any sec team has.

I think the sec gets 4, Stanford, Clemson, wake— that makes 7. And they’ve got a choice b/t the big 12 champ, West Virginia getting swept opened up a door, but you still have them and texas both sitting there a top that conference, a 44 win Virginia and the 5th sec team. I dont see the SEC winning that argument but we’ll see.

7 host sites is a maybe. I still think it’ll be 6.

LSU, Vandy, Arkansas, Florida

Kentucky, USC, Alabama, Tennessee, Auburn— in that order to me, all have a chance to earn the final 2 host spots, this week in Hoover (people say it dont matter but it does) will help separate that. The loser of the UK/Bama game will not host.

 

[Perd Hapley]

I dont disagree. I’ll also add that I dont think Bama deserves to host even with the RPI due to their 123rd ranked OOC schedule.

I haven’t looked lately, but I see a lot of proejctions having Kentucky as 2 seeds and not hosting. I would agree with you however, I’d say they deserve to host more than South Carolina. Comparing resumes and the fact UK swept USC.

Clemson went 20-10 in the ACC, the second best conference. Won 39 games, RPI of 7, SOS of 3. They are going to be a national seed unless they go 0-2 in their conference tourney. Not to mention Clemson has 31 quad 1 and 2 wins. Which i think is more than any sec team has.

I think the sec gets 4, Stanford, Clemson, wake— that makes 7. And they’ve got a choice b/t the big 12 champ, West Virginia getting swept opened up a door, but you still have them and texas both sitting there a top that conference, a 44 win Virginia and the 5th sec team. I dont see the SEC winning that argument but we’ll see.

7 host sites is a maybe. I still think it’ll be 6.

LSU, Vandy, Arkansas, Florida

Kentucky, USC, Alabama, Tennessee, Auburn— in that order to me, all have a chance to earn the final 2 host spots, this week in Hoover (people say it dont matter but it does) will help separate that. The loser of the UK/Bama game will not host.

Bama is an interesting one to me, because who knows how the committee is going to weigh the whole Bohannon thing. Seems they could potentially be given the benefit of the doubt on a lot of early season performances that might be hurting them.

You have to think the human side of the committee is going to want to give them the nod to host if at all possible after all the BS of that situation. And on paper, they deserve it anyway.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Florida-Arkansas-LSU-Vandy are locks to host and should be Top 8 seeds, though Wake Forest is probably the cursed #1 overall seed.

Kentucky is hosting, their RPI and SOS are incredible and they did manage to get 16 SEC wins. Hoover will determine if they can get a Top 8.

Bama-Auburn-SC-Tennessee all appear to be playing for host spots this week in Hoover.

 

[HuntDawg]

Florida-Arkansas-LSU-Vandy are locks to host and should be Top 8 seeds, though Wake Forest is probably the cursed #1 overall seed.

Kentucky is hosting, their RPI and SOS are incredible and they did manage to get 16 SEC wins. Hoover will determine if they can get a Top 8.

Bama-Auburn-SC-Tennessee all appear to be playing for host spots this week in Hoover.

After lookino at what the other teams this week down the stretch did… i agree Kentucky is a host. I retract my statement that if they lose to Alabama they wont be.

Looking at the D1 baseball projections from this past week— Kentucky and South Carolina were 10 and 11, both lost 2 of 3 this weekend, so hard to see them moving up. Virginia will likely take WVUs spot at the last national seed

It would take a lot by either USC or UK to earn a national seed. Kentucky probably need to get into the semis if not the championship game... South Carolina would probably have to win it.

Question really on the table is how far is the Alabama, Auburn, UT tier from getting a host.

I think 7 of the 8 national seeds are spoken for— 6 locks (wake, 4 sec, Stanford)— and Clemson is a no doubter. Was already projected as the 7 and swept yet again this past week. Virginia I think has a leg up for the final host spot. 44 wins. 19-11 in conference. 3rd host from the ACC. They were ahead of both UK and SC in most projections this past week and won their weekend series

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

After lookino at what the other teams this week down the stretch did… i agree Kentucky is a host. I retract my statement that if they lose to Alabama they wont be.

Looking at the D1 baseball projections from this past week— Kentucky and South Carolina were 10 and 11, both lost 2 of 3 this weekend, so hard to see them moving up. Virginia will likely take WVUs spot at the last national seed

It would take a lot by either USC or UK to earn a national seed. Kentucky probably need to get into the semis if not the championship game... South Carolina would probably have to win it.

Question really on the table is how far is the Alabama, Auburn, UT tier from getting a host.

I think 7 of the 8 national seeds are spoken for— 6 locks (wake, 4 sec, Stanford)— and Clemson is a no doubter. Was already projected as the 7 and swept yet again this past week. Virginia I think has a leg up for the final host spot. 44 wins. 19-11 in conference. 3rd host from the ACC. They were ahead of both UK and SC in most projections this past week and won their weekend series

It will be an interesting NCAA tourney for sure. Wake has been the best team in the country this year but they don’t really have much postseason experience, so that makes you feel like they’re a prime candidate to get upset before Omaha. Matchups will certainly be important.

The SEC has some really good teams but not a totally dominant team. If you made me pick who I think probably has the best chance to win it all from the SEC, I’d probably say Florida. But I also wouldn’t rule out someone like Arkansas, Tennessee, or heck even Auburn, who has found some guys on the mound and suddenly got super good. I don’t think LSU’s pitching depth is good enough to win the whole thing.

 

[ababyatemydingo]

It will be an interesting NCAA tourney for sure. Wake has been the best team in the country this year but they don’t really have much postseason experience, so that makes you feel like they’re a prime candidate to get upset before Omaha. Matchups will certainly be important.

The SEC has some really good teams but not a totally dominant team. If you made me pick who I think probably has the best chance to win it all from the SEC, I’d probably say Florida. But I also wouldn’t rule out someone like Arkansas, Tennessee, or heck even Auburn, who has found some guys on the mound and suddenly got super good. I don’t think LSU’s pitching depth is good enough to win the whole thing.

LSU is going to get exposed in the SEC tourney and they more than likely won't make it out of their own regional. Their pitching staff is a one trick pony. Zero truly quality depth past Skenes.

 

[HuntDawg]

LSU is going to get exposed in the SEC tourney and they more than likely won't make it out of their own regional. Their pitching staff is a one trick pony. Zero truly quality depth past Skenes.

I agree on LSU. Problem is they wont have to play in a tournament the size of the SEC tournament until Omaha.

They’ll save Skenes in game 1 of a home regional against a weak 4 seed. Use Skenes in game 2 and be sitting in the winners bracket and have to be beaten twice. I like LSUs odds there.

The 3 game series in the supers will be interesting, but again you have the X factor with Skenes.

I think they get to Omaha and then falter myself.

 

[ababyatemydingo]

I agree on LSU. Problem is they wont have to play in a tournament the size of the SEC tournament until Omaha.

They’ll save Skenes in game 1 of a home regional against a weak 4 seed. Use Skenes in game 2 and be sitting in the winners bracket and have to be beaten twice. I like LSUs odds there.

The 3 game series in the supers will be interesting, but again you have the X factor with Skenes.

I think they get to Omaha and then falter myself.

It's one thing in a three game weekend series to do that, but it's a big risk not throwing Skenes in game 1 of a regional. If they slip up and let a hot team whip their non-existent staff behind Skenes, and get in the loser's bracket, they're toast.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

It's one thing in a three game weekend series to do that, but it's a big risk not throwing Skenes in game 1 of a regional. If they slip up and let a hot team whip their non-existent staff behind Skenes, and get in the loser's bracket, they're toast.

Problem is you know they’re going to be gifted one of the weaker 4 seeds that they can probably beat without Skenes. I do think Games 3 and 4 of a Regional might be a big problem for them.

 

[HuntDawg]

Problem is you know they’re going to be gifted one of the weaker 4 seeds that they can probably beat without Skenes. I do think Games 3 and 4 of a Regional might be a big problem for them.

This ^

LSU won plenty of games this season Without skenes on the mound. Let’s not act like they are chopped liver. They’ll easily handle. 4 seed and be set up well in the winners bracket.

LSU Is 11-2-1 (1-1 vs South Carolina) in 3 game sets this year.

They are going to be a tough out, especially being a national seed and the environment in Baton Rouge.

 

[patdog]

I agree on LSU. Problem is they wont have to play in a tournament the size of the SEC tournament until Omaha.

They’ll save Skenes in game 1 of a home regional against a weak 4 seed. Use Skenes in game 2 and be sitting in the winners bracket and have to be beaten twice. I like LSUs odds there.

The 3 game series in the supers will be interesting, but again you have the X factor with Skenes.

I think they get to Omaha and then falter myself.

If the 2 seed has pitching depth, I think LSU could lose the regional from the winner's bracket.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

If the 2 seed has pitching depth, I think LSU could lose the regional from the winner's bracket.

If USM gets sent to Baton Rouge, which seems entirely possible, I would be very nervous if I was LSU. Especially with USM now playing for their coach that’s about to retire.

 

[HuntDawg]

If the 2 seed has pitching depth, I think LSU could lose the regional from the winner's bracket.

anything could happen, however I’ll say LSU played about as bad as they played all year against us. They have been a very good team all season. What would probably be best for them is a short trip to Hoover go say 1-2, a week off, and be ready for regionals and supers at the Box.

 

[The Cooterpoot]

If USM gets sent to Baton Rouge, which seems entirely possible, I would be very nervous if I was LSU. Especially with USM now playing for their coach that’s about to retire.

USM is as overrated as LSU